The (Renovated) Statistical Premiership Window

The (Renovated) Statistical Premiership Window: How are teams placed so far in 2015


Thanks to 3 goals 9 behinds in the first quarter from Port Adelaide in the Second Preliminary Final last year, my Statistical Premiership Window (SPW) prediction of a Port v Swans grand final failed to materialise by a paltry 4 points.

The Hawks crashed the party and while technically not in the window, they smashed through the window frame to reach back-to-back Premiership glory.

For those of you new to the SPW see here, here, here and here.

After last year’s result I was going to pack it in and leave the busted SPW in pieces, but due to overwhelming demand (well at least a request – thanks PB!) I have decided to sweep up the mess left by the Hawks and try my luck again to see if the window will work in 2015. Below is the current top 8 (after Round 16) and how they sit relative to the SPW.


Damian Little's premiership window 2015

Well, this is very interesting. The Premiership Window.

All I can say to West Coast fans out there is start booking your travel and accommodation for September because you’re going to be facing the Hawks on the big day this year.

And yes, Docker’s fans, I can hear your complaints. I really had thought that you would have been much closer to the window this year given some of the higher scoring games we have seen from you. However, it seems that at the current stage, your Offensive Ratio has regressed in 2015. Sorry, but the wait is set to continue.


Check out Ladbrokes prices for this round

Ladbrokes Premiership betting has the Eagles at $5.50.


  1. Does this mean Hawthorn are outside the window and it is the Weagles to lose?

  2. Fixed now. You can see the window!

  3. E.regnans says

    djlitsa – great stuff again.
    Next time I reckon you could use a larger version of the Collingwood logo.
    Can’t quite see it behind the West Coast image.
    Renovations looking good.

  4. And Geelong?

  5. Many, many, many thanks Damien. I had a feeling that my Eagles would be well placed on the proven criteria of serious flag contenders needing a balance of defence and attack.
    Looking back at the your last year’s window – 3 teams – Hawks, Swans and Port were clearly better placed than the other Top 8, and that was how the finals played out. So your historical analysis stands up to mind.
    Hard to criticise the Hawks for being defensively good and outstanding in attack. As last year I continue to wonder if the “window” could have open sides top and right, requiring 2 essential criteria to be met, but allowing them to be exceeded.
    I really think that the “time honoured” 4 point ladder is now redundant. Skip of Skipton’s 8 point ladder is an improvement, but in the super computer era we should surely be deciding our Grand Finalists by statistical regression analysis.
    And may the best algorithm win!
    The Avenging Eagle is on Webjet now looking for Dubrovnik – Melbourne flights in early October. She says that if we win she does not plan a return flight. Something about becoming the “other” Mr and Mrs Simpson. I fear European exile for life like Edward VIII.

  6. Thanks for the comments everyone.

    Gus – yes Hawks are outside the window but reality is they are very well placed.

    E.Reg – The Pies are sitting just below the bottom left of the window so are actually fairly well placed relative to others in the top 8 – I’ll send out some other charts to show where other teams are placed via twitter.

    JTH – The Cats are basically in the same position as the Dogs.

    PB – Thanks for giving me some encouragement to get off my butt and put this together again. Glad to see your Eagles ended up smack bang in the window. Finishing top two could be important, but if one of your “away” finals ended up in Perth – then that could shake things up.

  7. and PB – I like your idea on deciding the GF participants by statistical regression analysis!

  8. This looks pretty well spot on to me. Except the Hawks should be slap bang in the middle of the window!

  9. Dave Brown says

    As the only team to win from 5th in the top 8 system (even if it was the previous system) I am not discouraged by the Crows’ distance from the window. Just keen to prove that the unlikely will get done, occasionally

  10. Dips – The Hawks like the view so much they are looking to knock down some wall and open up a bigger window!

    Dave – herein lies the beauty of the SPW – in 1998, Adelaide were the best placed team (together with the dogs) to win based on the SPW, despite their position on the ladder. They had the highest PWI (offensive ratio x defensive ratio). Although I do admit their position was stronger on the defensive side, they still had a good positive offensive ratio.

  11. Earl O'Neill says

    Ah-ha! Statistical analysis to back up my gut feeling that the Eagles might pinch it this season.

  12. Skip of Skipton says

    I’m a fan of your remarkably accurate window dj, and have followed it the last few years; but surely the Eagles are just window dressing.

  13. Steve Hodder says

    Stats not really my thing and so I don’t quite get why Hawthorn sit where they are, too points against? I really dunno about West Coast, but the next four weeks will really sort things out. Tell me, who is better placed Western Sydney or Richmond?


  14. Thanks for this, DJL.
    Although I am not really into stats and such, I find the SPW interesting.

  15. Look at those Hawks peering in the window like burglars just waiting for the family to get in the car and leave.

    Thanks for the update Damien. Good work!

  16. Skip – I think where the Hawks, Freo and Eagles finish on the ladder will be hugely important (obviously!) as to how this SPW will stack up. If Hawks get in top two they make GF. If Eagles play Freo in Perth – who knows.

    Steve – I look at various stats and create points for based on accumulation of stats, and points against based on the weekly opposition stats against them. These are then measured against the league average, i.e. Hawks have accumulated 623 clearances and their opponents (against them) 520. The league average is 589. On this stat alone Hawks Offensive ratio is (623/589 = 1.06) and their defensive ratio is (589/520 = 1.13). This is done on a number of stats to plot their position relative to the window.

    Thanks Mickey, currently looks like the Hawks might be breaking down the walls again this year to gain entry.

  17. Nice one Litsa, I was waiting for the window, and Hawks looking good for the 3 peat. Where do Box Hill sit in your window?

  18. Jmob – Box Hill are looking good mate – better placed than Carlton to win an AFL flag.

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