After having a reasonable amount of interest in my original article earlier in the year (read it here), I thought it would be good to provide a couple of updates through season 2014 so that you can keep track of how your team is progressing and which teams are sitting within the window of opportunity.
The original analysis only looked at points for and against and while that is the crux of winning and losing, I thought I would expand it to look at other match statistics where teams might excel and that very much influence those scoring abilities. I have also reversed defensive ratio so that a better than average score is now above 1.0 and a below average score below 1.0.
This has allowed me to calculate what I refer to as the Premership Window Index (PWI) that calculates total offensive and defensive capabilities into one number. For example, last year Hawthorn had an offensive ratio of 1.14 and a defensive ratio of 1.05 which equals a PWI of 1.20 (1.14 x 1.05). Using the PWI I have ranked teams and compared this to actual ladder positions, which I present below for 2012, 2013 and up to Round 7 for 2014
| 2012 Post GF Ladder | PWI Rank |
2013 Post GF Ladder | PWI Rank |
2014 Rd 7 Ladder | PWI Rank |
||
| Sydney | 2 | Hawthorn | 1 | Hawthorn | 1 | ||
| Hawthorn | 1 | Fremantle | 2 | Port Adelaide | 2 | ||
| Adelaide | 3 | Geelong | 4 | Geelong | 5 | ||
| Collingwood | 8 | Sydney | 3 | Collingwood | 6 | ||
| West Coast | 4 | Port Adelaide | 12 | Gold Coast | 9 | ||
| Fremantle | 7 | Carlton | 8 | Fremantle | 4 | ||
| Geelong | 6 | Richmond | 6 | Sydney | 3 | ||
| North Melbourne | 10 | Collingwood | 7 | North Melbourne | 11 | ||
| St Kilda | 5 | Essendon | 10 | West Coast | 8 | ||
| Carlton | 9 | North Melbourne | 5 | Essendon | 7 | ||
| Essendon | 12 | Adelaide | 9 | Adelaide | 10 | ||
| Richmond | 11 | Brisbane | 14 | St Kilda | 17 | ||
| Brisbane | 13 | West Coast | 11 | Richmond | 12 | ||
| Port Adelaide | 14 | Gold Coast | 13 | GWS | 14 | ||
| Western Bulldogs | 16 | Western Bulldogs | 16 | Western Bulldogs | 13 | ||
| Melbourne | 15 | St Kilda | 15 | Carlton | 16 | ||
| Gold Coast | 17 | Melbourne | 17 | Melbourne | 15 | ||
| GWS | 18 | GWS | 18 | Brisbane | 18 |
A high PWI may not place you in the window if it is not balanced between offensive and defensive measures and as such, while this provides a useful (and reasonable accurate ranking) the statistical window to me, is still the best indicator. It should be noted that given there can be some big fluctuations in results from round to round, the data should become more reliable as the season moves on.
In this link I have embedded the data from 2008 up until round 7 for 2014. You can select the teams you want to look at, the years you want to look at and also choose to just view the premiers or runners-up for each year. Have some fun and I hope that your team is heading in the right direction in 2014 (unlike my Blues).
Number 1 on the PWI ranking is good, right? Woo and hoo!
Cheers
In relation to the so called , Premiership window apart from , Gold Coast and GWS obviously rising dramatically up the ladder the rest of the clubs in the double digit numbers are realistically about right ( may be , North slightly higher ) but the rest are a long way off from competing for the holy grail thanks , Damien
There are stats and there are stats, I reckon your PWI index breaks down genuine opportunity and hides the “noise” and spruiking especially for North. Interesting to note where both Freo and Sydney are despite their apparent struggles.
Cats slipping nicely under the radar I see.
Thanks for the comments all – hope you all clicked on the link and played with the graph where you can pick and choose what you want to see.
Dips – Cats are only team currently in the window – Hawks and Port are out, albeit in a good way by being overly offensive.
Sal – Freo and Swans both have good PWI thanks to defensive dominance but as history has shown, they will need to pick up on their offence to be a chance
My Eagle’s 8th?? I hope your Index hasn’t been drinking again.
Thanks DJL.
Nice work Damien. Good job.
Carlton down 8 spots to number 16! At this rate Casey Kasem won’t play them at all next Sunday on the Top 40.
Geelong only at 5!
Hi Peter – your beloved Weagles are better defensively so far this year ranked 5) which is lifting you up but not winning games.
Mickey – Cats might be only ranked 5 but are the only team actually placed in the Window after Round 7. They have the right blend of attack and defence.
Blues have had a couple of blow out games with the data that have really hurt.
I never mastered sums at school, but I like the way the PWI lines up. Interesting that the last two Flags have been played out between 1 & 2 on the Index. Even more interesting that the 2012 Flag was won by the defensive rated team over the poor kicking of the attack rated team. And the next year it was the attack rated team that prevailed because of the poor kicking of the defensive rated team. Could it be that the Index is more an indicator of who plays off in the GF – making it a GFI rather than a PWI? Or is playing off in the GF itself classified as the Premiership window?
Lost in Space of Kew
PS: any chance we could have monthly updates throughout the season djlitsa?
Hi to all at the Wrap Cave
I think the PWI is not a bad reflection of the overall competitiveness of a team and reasonably reflects ladder position (which is quite important come year end) but charting the graph and looking at the window seems to be the best at picking a potential premier. Note Geelong, currently ranked 5th but the only team actually in the window!
I am updating stats weekly and will post another update after about Round 15 I think and then one at the end of the *cough* Home & Away
too smart for me. You have the brains in the family