Image: Wikimedia Commons
A Pope passes, a conclave looms
Pope Francis passed away earlier this week and already speculation ablounds about who his successor will be.
Earlier in the year when Pope Francis was seriously ill, The Footy Almanac’s resident Catholic correspondent Roger Lowrey contacted us to offer his thoughts on who the next pontiff might be should Pope Francis succumb to his illness. Like all good journos, we filed his missive for future reference.
Now, with the passing of Pope Francis and a conclave imminent, and with our correspondent’s permission, we offer Roger’s insights into who might emerge onto the balcony of St Peter’s basilica after the white smoke erupts from the chimney of the Sistine Chapel and the proclamation of habemus papam is issued by the Senior Cardinal Deacon, Dominique Mamberti.
Back in late February, Roger wrote:
Before you and others beat a path to my door in the coming days/weeks/months regarding whom I would like to continue the Petrine tradition, I’ll beat you to the punch. My very sketchy views from what I can read are as follows even though, naturally, I have no idea. Keep these horses under watch just the same and follow Sportsbet for wagering moves, irrelevant though they’ll be.
Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines) and Matteo Zuppi (Italy) seem to be the two notional Left candidates (of course, these definitions are always highly relative) closest to the incumbent’s views, particularly on the LGBT issue. That said, that’s about as far as the Left is prepared to go on anything much after last year’s synodal process it seems. Forget about married clergy, female clergy or any other so called progressive (sic) issues for that matter. But then again, baby steps! Married deacons are already legit but only under 60 years of age in the Melbourne Archdiocese apparently. Sigh! I put it down as a missed opportunity.
Peter Erdo (Hungary), Fridolin Ambongo Besungo (Democratic Republic of Congo – read, brutal totalitarian Marxist dictatorship) and Raymond Leo Burke (USA) are the three conservatives spoken about largely on the same LGTB issue above but other matters as well supportive of the Pell tradition. They are the ones we certainly don’t want.
Pietro Parolin (Italy) is a long standing consummate Vatican bureaucrat at age 72 with a highly impressive track record of achievements. Dr Google can tell you more. He is probably regarded effectively as the most senior ranking Cardinal and is broadly considered to be a moderate. If the red hatted lot are in the mood for slowing down the ship after Frankie, but not reverting altogether to raging conservatives, he would more than likely appeal to quite a few as the consensus candidate, I suspect.
OK then, I’ll stick my neck out. Parolin – win only bet.
Having said that, the Filipino Luis Antonio Tagle, who prefers to be called by his nickname “Chito”, would be an exciting choice. Of course, at age 67 they know they’ll be stuck with such a young candidate for a good while – think here John Paul 2, the Polish experiment. Is the Filipino experiment – and one of the Knights of the Holy Sepulchre with the bishopric motto “Dominus est” (John 21/7) – a bridge too far for this conclave after the Francis whirlwind?
You heard it here first folks.
Having absorbed Lowrey’s insights, John Harms responded later that same day with the results of a search of his own:
Latest market from an English bookie…
| Pietro Parolin | 4/1 | 20.0% |
| Luis Antonio Tagle | 9/2 | 18.2% |
| Peter Turkson | 6/1 | 14.3% |
| Peter Erdo | 7/1 | 12.5% |
| Angelo Scola | 8/1 |
In turn, Lowrey replied:
BTW, further to previous emails in this exchange, when things get closer to the inevitable, if you can find a Protestant bookmaker silly enough to give you $4 for Parolin, jump in his bag. By my reckoning, his real odds should be something like $1.50 for the very reasons I outlined in my first email.
Then again, these things can be notoriously tricky, hence the old Vatican saying, “he who goes into the conclave a Pope comes out a Cardinal!”
A party to the above exchange commented:
We have (here) either a pre-conclave pundit’s prognostication or, after the conclave, a piece of genius or misguided folly.
Now we wait to see what eventuates in the coming weeks. Just remember, you read (what was said in February) first here!
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I’m on Tagle, RDL. Huge Catholic following in the Philippines. A step up in class here, but he has the pedigree and can go the journey.
A recent local market:
Angelo De Donatis
20/1
Angelo Scola
20/1
Fridolin Ambongo Besungu
16/1
Jose Tolentino
20/1
Luis Antonio Tagle
3/1
Matteo Zuppi
7/1
Peter Erdo
8/1
Peter Turkson
6/1
Pierbattista Pizzaballa
12/1
Pietro Parolin
6/4
Raymond Leo Burke
14/1
Robert Sarah
16/1
Wim Eijk
16/1
No mention of the Maltese cardinal, Mario Grech?
A roughie, but not without a hope.
I do know that Malta would go berserk if he was selected.
Yeah, he’s right up there Dips.
And with five other cardinals from the Philippines to do the grunt work with the numbers he is a big show
Not as confident about Malta Smokie but your assessment of their likely reaction is spot on.
The odds seem thereabouts, but who knows?
RDL
RDL, you’re probably in dreamland Down Under as Leo XIV is presented as the new Pontiff. Here in London it’s dinner time and my first reaction is ‘he’s very young’! A long pontificate in prospect. My second thought is that I never thought I’d see the day when an American became Pope. Then I revisited your piece from several weeks ago, along with JTH’s response on ‘the market’ at that time. This guy didn’t rate a mention! Too left field? But when I looked at the apparent feeling of the fellow cardinals on the adjacent balconies as Leo emerged, they looked very (and I mean very) happy. My first impression was of his demeanour as he was presented to the masses – he appeared humble (contrast Ratzinger’s almost triumphalism) and genuinely moved by the acclamation. Good signs? As a fellow traveller, albeit from a different perspective, it will be interesting to read the commentary in the coming days. Anyway, God bless him, he’s got the weight of a very large part of the world on his shoulders.
Yes Ian, he was write your own ticket in the betting however that is sometimes the way of the Conclave.
This one in particular was hard to predict if for no other reason than the large number of newbee Cardinals elevated by Francis, many of them from quite obscure parts of the world. In a lot of cases, this would have been the first time many of them would have met in person. The quick outcome points to the clearly shared view of the majority of an optimistic outlook for the future under their new leader widely regarded, it seems, to be a “centrist” or “moderate”.
I have two very minor concerns at this early stage. The first is the one you refer to. At the young age of 69, his will be a longer papacy than many. Of course if he turns out to be any good this won’t be a problem; however, if there is any serious buyer regret in the coming years for whatever reason then it will take a while before we have the chance to get another one. That said, he starts, at very least, with the benefit of any reasonable doubt.
My other initial concern was his nationality. Over the past 20 to 30 years, the USA has had its fair share of crazy ultra conservative Bishops and Cardinals although he is plainly not one of them thankfully. His lengthy tenure of ecclesiastical administration in Peru fortuitously removed him from the quagmire of American Catholic administration and its many internal problems for much of this time. This experience with a very different Catholic community away from his native country will stand him in good stead as will his role as Prefect of the Dicastery of Bishops. This job basically oversees the appointment of Bishops around the world and would have given him a sound grasp of global issues especially those around contentious “hot spots”.
Early days yet but on the one major reform achievement of Francis’s synodality process of the last few years on the more welcoming embrace of the LGBT faithful, Prevost has a clear line in the sand of not reversing this position. I suppose like many, my biggest unstated fear all along was I didn’t want a new papacy to try to nullify Francis’s fine work on many fronts by reverting to old conservative habits because “it was the way we have always done it.” Credit where it is due for now, while he won’t be the unapologetic disrupter that his predecessor was, I can’t see such a slide back to the Right in the very little I have read about Leo XIV over the past few hours!
Oh, one more thing for the cognoscenti. Nice to see another Pope with a religious orders background. (Pope Francis was a Jesuit). Prevost OSA was a former leader of the Order of St Augustine religious congregation whose charism emphasises love, interiority, humility, devotion to study, pursuit of truth and valuing the common good. This should give us all a very generous hint regarding the direction of his religious vocation to this point.
Viva il Papa!
RDL