Sal’s Preview – Round 4: All Aboard The Coaching Cycle – Bring your Alibi to the Championships

Greetings All

 

The coaching cycle is in motion!  The start is the media coverage and amplification of pressure on coaches – as if it needs amplification.  Michael Voss and Brad Scott are fully aware of the scrutiny they will be under from their respective clubs.  Analysis of selection decisions, game style, strategy, fitness levels are all fair provided it is analysis and not agitation about who is going to come and replace them.  The current agitation around Voss and Simpson is unfair on both men who are trying to work together. Then there is the most irksome issue around the coverage.  When they finally get their man, it turns 180 degrees and the talk is of how undeserving for such a coach to be treated in such a way by the club.  “He is such a good football person and should never be treated like that…..blah, blah, blah”

Those coaches are justifiably under pressure but do the analysis and not the execution campaign.  The clubs need to block the noise, make decisions based on sound evidence and judgement.  

This cycle erodes trust. Fans are left consuming commentary that is reactive rather than principled, while clubs operate in an environment where external noise becomes impossible to ignore. Critique is essential in elite sport, but it should be consistent and measured — not opportunistic and hysterical. Until that balance is restored, the AFL media risks undermining both the individuals it covers and its own credibility.

One recent good decision is the AFL keeping the Grand Final in its traditional afternoon timeslot for at least the next two years, it is a welcome show of restraint. After years of debate around twilight or night fixtures, this move recognises the significance of tradition to players, fans, and the broader football community. The daytime start preserves the unique atmosphere — the build-up, the family accessibility, and the rhythm of Grand Final day.  Just as importantly, it shows there’s no need to overreact to perceived competition from the NRL?  Who cares if their showpiece rates higher, that’s what happens on a Sunday night.  The AFL Grand Final stands firmly on its own, not to say there are not some other decisions to be made by HQ to further appease the base.

 

Now for some of my hysteria on this round of games.

 

Where There’s a Will (86%) vs Close to Home (14%)

Craig McRae cheekily suggested the Pies are playing a home game at the Gabba.  While they have won their last two there the previous few years were not as fruitful.  He was right though that the Pies fans travel and make plenty of noise.  The Lions are just as keen to feel right at home deciding not to replay any opposition goals, something that does not sit comfortably especially if all clubs start to take up such a position.  Probably something where there might be intervention.  The game itself is interesting with Pies going in without their rudder, Pendlebury provides so much control and direction.  There are plenty of others to take up the slack but none quite like Scott.  The Lions are still without two of their most important players with Andrews and McCluggage still missing, but they had more than slack taken up by Will Ashcroft last week.  McRae justifiably talked up his team’s record and chances here, but suspect the Lions will be too good and notch their first win at home for the season.

 

Overdone it with the Xerri (37%) vs Panic Room (63%)

The Blues are the fodder for the Roos annual charity match on Good Friday.  It has been a fillup for the Blues over the last couple of years.  But how things have changed – Charlie Curnow had the main fillup in those games and the Blues were terrible in their last encounter with North at the MCG.  However just as the Blues missing Curnow has enforced changes, the Kangas will be without Tristan Xerri.  While there is not much trust in the Blues it probably swings this game their way.  Part of the second half blues Carlton has gone through has been the ruck dominance of Grundy, Nankervis and Gawn.  Pittonet should be able to hold sway and provide Carlton more control in the middle and win this……but who knows?

 

Butt Out (53%) vs Tiger Tamers (47%)

A great contest awaits Friday night with Adelaide hosting Fremantle – two clubs that expect to be there at the pointy end of the season.  The Crows need to replace Jordan Butts but should get Laird and Walker back.  Freo has few injury worries after dealing with the Tigers last week.  Sean Darcy found some form, the two pronged ruck attack with Luke Jackson looks ominous so how Adelaide take it on.  Much talk about Riley O’Brien being brought in, which makes sense to battle Darcy.  However with Walker back they should be better up forward and allow Thilthorpe to share the duties.  Both forward lines are potent so midfields will be critical, suspect the Crows might get the ascendancy at home especially with Rankine having a game under his belt.

 

Broadly Speaking (25%) vs Black Out (75%)

The Power was shut down by the Eagles last week, it’s the Tigers turn to try this week.  They will get some valuable experience back with NathanBroad available.  But still have key big men on the injury list plus a couple more youngsters joining them in Alger and Armstrong.  Port have dined out on the Tigers recently but the MCG should prove to be a bit harder.  Not helped by the loss of Ratugolea putting more strain on the defense.  Suspect Port will have enough experience to get this done.

 

Woe of Yeo (5%) vs Isaac Back (95%)

The Eagles have been terrific in their last two and what a difference it is to have Elliot Yeo in the team, alas he has another groin issue but hopefully not as severe as previous.  Their work will be cut out hosting the Swans keen to rebound off the loss to the Hawks.  Boosted by the return of Heeney and an opponent that Curnow has feasted on frequently, expect the Eagles to get a learning experience.

 

Kosi Can (13%) vs Back Tracca (87%)

The Demons get to show off their new midfield to one their previous heroes in Christian Petracca, unfortunately for Christian he will be on the sidelines as will Bailey Humphrey.  A key to that midfield is “Kosi” Pickett having license to roam, highly creative, highly skilled and quick.  The service he got from Gawn was handy and the inclusion of Jack Steele to do the grunt work should not be underestimated.  It will be severely tested by Christian and his Suns, they bat deep in the midfield with plenty of numbers going through and possibly the Brownlow Medallist back.  In Melbourne’s two wins Max has worked over the opposition rucks in the second half,  Does Dimma play an extra ruck to assist?  They are big outs for the Suns but they have depth to cover.  While the Demons were electric late last week, I doubt they will get the same license.  Just think the Suns will get this one done and very important that they do given their limited exposure to the MCG.

 

Beverige Time (99.9%) vs  Caddy Shacked (0.1%)

The Dogs are all out attack, the Bombers can’t defend and they lose their most exciting forward in Caddy.  It won’t be pretty.        

 

A Pair of Jacks (73%) vs My Left Toe (27%)

We close out Easter with the Hawthorn – Geelong encounter at the G.  They both sit at 2-1 but how much did Tom Atkins left toe and quick action help that?  Nevertheless they have done their job at home against highly rated opposition.  The Hawks are in about the same position and pleased they were able to get the win against the Swans before going on the enforced sabbatical.  That win had much to do with the Jacks, Gunston’s four goals and Ginnivan’s clever running and ball use.  Cameron will be a different challenge than Curnow and could create problems for the Hawks.  However, suspect the lack of Dangerfield gives Scott much less flexibility within the team.  Always a hard one to pick, but the Hawks were very good against Sydney and just not sure about Geelong away from home at the moment so going with Hawthorn.

 

Track Time

Two fantastic WFA contests last week with the Australian Cup and the Tancred Stakes.  This week we head back to Caulfield for the traditional Easter program while the Championships kick off in Sydney with some terrific Group 1 races.

 

Caulfield

C Maher might be at it again with a first Australian start import in Mukhtahif (R1, #4), however reckon Engine of War (R1, #10) has a great chance second up and with significant weight relief.  Tough one next up maybe Until Valhalla (R2, #1) is worth an each way ticket back to the scene of her last victory.  Thebelmontgangster (R3, #6) has a win over Observer who will be a short priced favourite in the ATC Derby, that is good form for this.  Backing up again on Pantile Warrior (R4, #9), hopefully can get some cover rather than leading like last week.  Classic Gem (R5, #1) ran well but was beaten by a good one last start, she gets her chance to sparkle here.  Really tough to sort out the fillies in the sixth, Toronado Queen (R6, #4) was good over this journey last start and worth consideration.

Tough start to the quaddie and would go as wide as affordable.  Top selection is Ka Ying Cheer (R7, #6), will need a good steer from the wide draw just keeps on winning.  No relief in the Easter Cup which is just as open.  Kings Valley (R8, #14) returned to the winners list in the Bairnsdale Cup, this is harder but is well weighted.  If Ambassadorial (R8, #17em1) gets a run it probably goes on top.  We have a similar situation in the Victoria Hcp where King Zephyr (R9, #18em2) looks a great chance, if he doesn’t get in then Persian Spirit (R9, #6) could swoop on the lot of them.  Gold Medallist (R10, #9) has been just that in 5 from 7 starts no reason to think he won’t be at the top of the podium again.

 

Quaddie

Taken out last week by the Light Infantry Man, let’s hope we can stay in it till the last hurrah this week.

 

Leg 1 – 5, 6, 7, 10, 12, 13

Leg 2 – 1, 10, 14, 16, 17e1

Leg 3 – 1, 2, 6, 12, 18e2

Leg 4 – 8, 9

 

300 Combinations, a $30 investment will return 10% of the dividend

 

Rosehill

Race 6 – Sires Produce Stakes (G1, 1400m, 2YO Fillies)

Campione D’italia (4) and Zambales (6) both had torrid runs in the slipper but finished off well, were they hampered enough to catch Babs anyway?  They get an extra 200m to try here and suspect they might.  Streisand (12) has been on song in the two big events, not sure she needs the encore.  The engagement of Zahra on Wolf Gap (9) provides food for consideration.

Selections – 4-6-12-9

 

Race 7 – TJ Smith Stakes (G1, 1200m, WFA)

What a ripping race this is!  Can Tentyris (7) hit back after not really having a chance in the Newmarket.  Suspect he can but the inside barrier might present a few challenges, although he has shown his capability of pushing through the gaps.  Jimmysstar (1) starts just outside him and he would much prefer a wider draw, Ethan Brown will need to pull out a beauty but his best is capable.  Joliestar (6) has the draw and the pilot to give her the run of the race, will take the very best to get past her.  Giga Kick (3) was solid in the Challenge Stakes and will be better suited out to 1200m

Selections – 7-6-1-3

 

Race 8 – Doncaster Mile (G1, 1600m, HCP)

Only one is going better than Sheza Alibi (15) and she is not running here.  Looks well inj on the weight, has to be some query in open company but that might just get us a better price.  Giving Evaporate (4) a mulligan for his last run, prior to that second in the All Star Mile is handy and gets Z Purton.  The handicappers might have got Gringotts (1) but always gives all and not disgraced running second to Autumn Glow.  Vivy Air (9) rattled home in the Coolmore, this is harder but she has been racing well for a while now.  Autumn Boy (7) has to be a chance just might get held up on the inside and Steparty (8) steps up for his biggest test but is also in good form.

Selections – 15-4-1-9

 

Race 9 – ATC Australian Derby  (G1, 2400m, 3YO SW)

Green Spaces (3) got past Observer (1) in the Rosehill Guineas but neither were a match for Autumn Boy who is not here.  Suspect Observer (1) did a bit too much work early in that race, his credentials at this distance are known with the VRC Derby on the CV.  No doubt Green Spaces (3) has the capability to catch him but the distance is a query.  It is not a query for the NZ Derby winner Road to Paris (2) who did plenty wrong but still got it done and Storm Leopard (5) was a strong winner of the Tulloch last week and might be on the scene at the right time.

Selections – 1-3-2-5

 

Go Blues, 

 

Cheers, Sal

 

 

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