Sal’s Preview: Round 10 Preview – The First Domino Falls

May 14, 2026 by Sal Ciardulli Leave a Comment

Greetings All

A bit torn on the departure of Michael Voss from the Blues. Didn’t think the media would get their man quite so soon, in typical style they now bag the club and praise the fallen. The manner in which both the club and Voss have handled it have been exemplary.

Having been through a comparable situation, not at nearly the highest level, it is almost impossible for a coach to continue if they know they will not be the leader as the club moves forward. The only one I can think of in such a situation was Tony Shaw with the Pies many years ago.

Much has been said of the alignment of the club leaders with the coach, clearly there were gaps in expectations. However if the Blues were sitting at 4-5 rather than 1-8 that would have been a pass mark. The capitulations against North, Melbourne and Collingwood provided the evidence that neither the coaches or players had the strategies and tactics to halt opposition momentum. It has been the team’s inability to defend runs of opposition scoring for the last two seasons that makes this the right move but maybe not at the right time. While Vossy was not out there having set shots and nearly missing his foot or handballing not only to grass but grass outside the boundary to give up freekicks, he had to take responsibility for the failure to put in place something to bring such runs to a stop. If anything was ever put in place it just did not work.

As I wrote a couple of weeks ago, this will be a sugar hit at best. It gives Carlton the first chance to explore the coaching talent available and Wright’s record of identifying the right person has worked for the Hawks and Pies. Then there is the club’s track record of appointments that have not worked.

As for the sugar hit – it is not that great either. The record of teams winning after the removal of a coach mid-season is not that good. Since 2000, teams are 9 from 24 winning and a couple of the losses have been significant. On the plus side though – that is a 37.5% strike rate, significantly better than the Blues 1-8 (11.1%) current record. And probably better than most of those teams that replaced their coaches’ records.

The Victors (79%) vs The Vanquished (21%)

The Grand Final combatants meet again but this time at the Gabbatoir, what can we expect different. Not sure that much. Draper’s inclusion has strengthened the Lions, by the same token Dangerfield and Cameron were almost non-entities on Grand Final day. We can expect them to be better. In Mullin, the Cats have one of the game’s best stoppers but who does he go to? The Lions just have so many weapons and throw in Dunkley who can shut down anyone that is getting out of control. The Cats clung on desperately till late in the third quarter in their last meeting, see this one going to a similar script.

Just-in Time (97%) vs And the Oscar Goes to (3%)

Reckon Justin McInerney was always going to play through the middle, however with the injury to Errol he is getting even more opportunity and proving his value. They just keep on hitting up the middle, how will McRae deal with that on the SCG. He doesn’t have all the weapons at his disposal either with Pendlebury, Lipinski, Moore, Cameron and others on the sideline. Oscar Steene taking on Grundy solo in only game number eight. The wounded Pies on the road are always a handful, but suspect this will be too hard.

Gone Troppo (93%) vs Not Miles Off (7%)

Another Friday Night double header, with the news coming through that we can expect more through the remainder of the season! So much for listening to the fans. This one is the second of the Sun’s northern swing. They host Port Adelaide who suffered yet another close defeat and will be without Miles Bergman for this one. Don’t expect this to be that close and Gold Coast to go 10-0 in Darwin.

Nibbling Away (83%) vs A Spark to Go (17%)

A couple of ex-Demons to face off here with Neal-Bullen and Spargo representing the Crows and Kangas respectively. A great test for North to take on Adelaide away from home, they nearly got the job done against Sydney last week and not without a chance here. They have close enough to their best team in, while the Crows are just getting a few back. Adelaide have not been outstanding at home but are now 4 from 5 and think they should get this done too.

Kosi (16%) vs Wiz (84%)

What a match up at the G featuring two of the most exciting players in the competition in Kosi Pickett and Nick Watson. The matchups are a feature and none more to see how the Hawk ruck pair fare against Max and his understudy Max. How will Hawthorn cover the loss of Barrass and potentially Gunston? The midfield was put to the sword late by Fremantle last week and the Dees have plenty of weapons in there. We might see a bit more of the Wizard in there this week, but they will need to put the clamps on Kosi and will not have their usual stopper in Conor Nash available. Just tips it the Demons way, should be a beauty.

Jack out of the Pack (28%) vs Language Problem (72%)

Plenty have debuted for the Blues, the problem is that not enough have graduated. Jack Ison gets his chance this week after a number of good performances at VFL level. We might see a few more rolling through the team over the next 14 rounds. The take on the Dogs in the Loungeroom who got themselves back on track with a gutsy win away to Port. While not their home game will love being back in the pristine conditions. There are a number of lame Dogs though with Tim English copping another concussion and their first pick key defenders are out. That should give the Blues a good chance, however despite a crook knee the Bont is likely to don the cape again and get his team home.

Not so Sharp (3%) vs A Purple Patch (97%)

The Bombers came away last week with another couple of injuries with Sharp and Johnson needing to be replaced. Not great when hosting the barnstorming Dockers, they simply overran the Hawks who were so impressive for most of the game. Freo will enjoy the opportunity to test themselves out on the G in hope that their next but one game there will be in late September. Should win this comfortably.

Unmanaged (98%) vs A Brown Out(2%)

Expecting Nas to be back for the Saints after his management holiday up north, they will be too strong for the Tigers who have suffered another raft of injuries including a broken arm for Tom Brown. They may only have the bare 26 to name on the sheet this week.

The Kelly Gang (6%) vs Strung Up (94%)

The Eagles have put in a few lacklustre performances of late but would be pleased with the return to form of Tim Kelly who looks to be moving well and providing plenty of drive. They host the Giants who have not set the world on fire either. They needed Jake Stringer’s three goals in the first three quarters to keep them close enough before overrunning the Bombers. The Eagles best is capable of winning this, we just haven’t seen it for a number of weeks now and suspect the Giants will have enough experience to take this one out.

Track Time

Another Melbourne Cup ticket is up for grabs at Flemington this week for the winner of the Andrew Ramsden Stakes. With a handy support card as well. We move to Brisbane for the main events with the Doomben 10,000 feature.

Flemington

Expect a good surface with the weather expected to remain fine and the rail out 4 metres should give them all a chance. It’s a 2yo event to open proceedings so tread warily, Autumn Charm (R1, #9) should be suited stepping out to 1400m and might be worth an each way ticket. Classic Gem (R2, #3) keeps on running well but hasn’t broken her duck, prefer the odds of Different Gravy (R2, #1) who has won here. Backing up on Maddiya (R3, #4) she closed off well last start, a good chance with enough pace on. Concord Connie (R4, #7) was an outstanding winner here last start, but current odds are prohibitive. Better finding one at a decent price for a place and play a ratio of 1:4 win/place. Flying Done (R4, #1) is likely to lead and hopefully hang on! Hopefully find a purple patch with Purple Streak (R5, #7) especially if the outside is favoured down the straight.

We open the Quaddie with a Maher import having its first Australian run. Zahraan (R6, #1) has been trialling well and we know how good the stable is with these imports.

Race 7 – Andrew Ramsden Stakes (2800m, Listed, SW)

Zakouma (10) just got too far back last start expect Childs to have him in a better position and capable of getting over the top of them. The one to run down will be the Sydney Cup winner Changingoftheguard (1) was very strong over 3200m so this distance won’t be an issue. Not sure how well she is going but Basilinna (14) won this last year but did not make it to the big one and the Adelaide Cup winner American Wolf (13) has claims and proven over the distance. More in the quaddie!

Selections – 10 – 1 – 14 – 13

Losesomewinmore (R8, #8) loves the straight and gets the outside alley. We close out on Skippers Canyon (R9, #7) who gets a handy weight advantage over the favourite from his beating last start.

Quaddie

Leg 1 – 1, 3, 4, 10

Leg 2 – 1, 2, 9, 10, 13, 14

Leg 3 – 7, 8, 12

Leg 4 – 7, 11

144 Combinations (if they all run), a $30 investment will return 20.83% of the dividend

Doomben

Race 8 – Doomben 10,000 (G1, 1200m, WFA)

A handy field at the top but with a bit of a tail to it here. Donning the Jimmy jumper again and backing Jimmysstar (1), E Brown back from HK to ride him not drawn in too close can run them down. Toughest to get past will be Private Eye (2). The colt’s weight advantages are reduced this late in the season but Napoleonic (18) and Beadman (17) are both high quality.

Selections – 1 – 2 – 18 – 17

Go Blues,

Cheers, Sal