Greetings All,
As we head into the penultimate round of the season and lament the two-tiered nature of the season with so many dead rubbers, the tightness at the top end of the ladder keeps it alive with only the Crows safely in the finals but not quite a lock on a top four finish. Late last year I wrote of the leg up non-Melbourne sides had in getting to the finals. The one factor against them being the need to play the Grand Final at the MCG. It was not a factor last year with two non-Victorian sides playing off in the decider with the prospect of a similar occurrence this year, but with other protagonists. Of the Melbourne clubs still in the race they all have some fixturing advantages to support them. Hawthorn gets their four games in Launceston where they are 4-0 this year. The Dogs only had one game in Ballarat but won it convincingly. Many bemoan the Collingwood residency at the MCG, not sure there is any alternative but to their credit they have taken full advantage.
So how have the non-tenants fared at the MCG this year? It is clearly something they have worked on. Adelaide have appropriately been aggrieved about the lack of games at the venue in previous years, they got three games this year have won two and lost a close one to the Pies. The Lions have been onto this for a while and won their last five there, while their domestic relatives from down the highway are 3 from 4. Of particular interest is Fremantle who have split their two encounters but had not beaten Collingwood there since 2019. The G has been foreign land for the Suns only getting one game a year scheduled there since 2017, but they did beat the Demons there this year. The Dees were same fodder for the Giants in their only appearance at the MCG. The Bulldogs played the Pies and went down in a close one but balanced the ledger against the Demons last week.
For equity all teams should play at least two games at the MCG, it might come at a cost of the MCG tenants getting even more game there, but familiarity with the ground improves their chances should they make the decider. As for this year Brisbane, Adelaide and Fremantle appear more than ready to deal with any challenges presented at the home of footy.
So, who advances their cause this week?
All Wright (5%) vs Wouldn’t be Lyon (95%)
Reckon Channel 7 would have been happy to ditch this one for Saturday night. Peter Wright reaches game 150 with the Bombers hosting the Saints. Ross got a bit hot and bothered with questions more about next year than this week – but they were all fair enough given the likely challenges they will have with TPP and player retention. It won’t matter this week where they should account for the Banged-Up Bombers.
Pony Tales (61%) vs History Beeckens (39%)
A pony-tailed skipper rose late last week to get Freo the points over Port. As the season comes to a close, we will also get to celebrate another pony-tailed hero for the Dockers as Nat Fyfe brings down the curtain on a wonderful career. What a player has been and a sheer joy to watch since he entered the competition back in 2010. They host the Lions whose defence of the title is teetering. Injuries have hit at a bad time, and they introduce another debutante in Luke Beecken. The returns of Starcevich and Lester will steady the defence but there is no harder trip than Freo in Perth. The Lions rarely lose two in succession, Grandpa will be sure to have put everything in place not to do so again, but Fremantle have now won 11- from 12 and look a real contender. Brisbane’s forwards need to step up here and not sure they are playing well enough, expect Freo to win this and put the Lions place in the finals under real threat next week.
Good to be the King (82%) vs Strung Out (18%)
Probably the most important game we have seen between the Suns and the Giants. The Blues gave the Suns a bit of a scare last week but really was in junk time and then cooly shut down by Ben King. Took one of the marks of the year and booted six straight. Certainly, helped by some silver service from the midfield. There is not much that can stop Matt Rowell, just his threat on the contest has opponents scragging at him early. Still doesn’t stop him. Up against the Giants who are having similar injury issues to the Lions. Jake Stringer goes out, Jesse Hogan yet to return puts plenty of pressure on the likes of Cadman and Riccardi. The midfield battle will be a ripper especially Green and Rowell going head-to-head. This game deserves a better timeslot and hard to pick the winner so going with the Suns at home.
Let’s be Frank (79%) vs Out of Luk (21%)
The Blues finished off well last week and stayed in it largely due to the efforts of Frances Evans. Has been a whipping boy for most of the season but has built some strong form of late and doing everything he can to stay at the Blues in 2026 where there is plenty of change afoot. They host Port who lost Jack Lukosius for the season with another injury, and we know there is plenty of change coming with Kenny stepping aside. If the Blues reproduce their final quarter effort from last week, they win this.
They call me Breust (89%) vs May Day (11%)
Luke Breust joins the list of end of season retirees but with some unfinished business. They take on Melbourne who were very good last week almost putting the Dogs out of the race. Alas it was not to be, how much difference would it have made to have Steven May there? He is back this week in game 250 vital against the height of the Hawthorn forward line. A reproduction of their second half from last week could see the Hawks teetering. The threat of a messy afternoon from the weather gods is also in the Demons favour but suspect with so much on the line Hawthorn like the Dogs last week will hold out.
Taking a Nibble (78%) vs Swooping Season (22%)
Perhaps one of the key missing pieces from the Dees this year has been the hard-nosed attitude and work rate of Alex Neal-Bullen. The Crows have certainly benefitted from it and it needs to be at its peak against the Pies this weekend. Much talk of the wobbles of late with Collingwood dropping four of their last five and a particularly poor performance last week. It is the perfect scenario for a Magpie swoop! It’s their perfect scenario – backs against the wall and a road trip to Adelaide where they have won their last 10. Beau McCreery returning will give them the pace and hard edge they were missing last week. The defence will need to do better in one-on-one contests against the three headed monster, but this is what the Pies thrive on, they can win this and take momentum into the final round.
Unlarkey (72%) vs Trainoring Wheels (28%)
The Roos minus Nick Larkey host the Tigers who get the Impressive Luke Trainor back in the team. In Hobart going with North but guesswork really!
Served Cold (15%) vs Nice Mannaghs (85%)
Revenge is a dish best served cold, might not have been that cold in Brisbane last week but the Swans would have enjoyed serving it after their demolition from the Lions in the 2024 GF. They can help shape the eight hosting the Cats this week. Geelong have done their work defeating the teams they should, this is their biggest test before September. A test made easier with the absence of Brodie Grundy. The Swans won’t make this easy but reckon Chris Scott will want a big effort here against in form opposition to prime the Cats for September and reckon they will get up here.
The Undercroft (99.9%) vs Half Baked (0.01%)
The Dogs host the Eagles and take the opportunity to introduce two debutantes including Jordan Croft son of ex-Bulldog Matthew. For the Eagles – Liam Baker plays game 150 – they hope he will play many more in the Blue and Gold. Dogs should kick the sweep again.
Go Blues,
Cheers, Sal
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