# Professor Punt and the boys from H Block

G’day Punters

Despite every bastard thinking that teaching is a bludge, and that we knock off at 3.30 and we’re down The Glen Hotel having our first bet on the Casino dogs by 10 to 4, we actually work bloody hard here at…well, let’s just call our campus Inferno High.

The Boss (we call him Dante) did a bit of a re-structure over the hols and he’s put the Maths department down here with us Phys Edders in H Block, which I reckon is a combination made in heaven.

We’ve got some units in our Maths department. Blokes (like Prof Punt) who take their probability very seriously and will spend an afternoon Venn Diagramming their way to a 1.2% profit and put all of \$20 on the next day. It’s a principle thing. (You know the type)

Anyway, the deputy’s given us a few spares on a Thursday afternoon so we’ve got a bit of time to have a bit of a look and seeing as those you have a footy site, we reckon we’ll start you off on AFL footy.

Here’s how we see Round 7 of the AFL. (Macca, who found  Arctic Scent in the `96 Caulfield Cup, says you’ll have to pay if you want our NRL analysis).

This looks complicated (blame Vinny for that) but it’s not. If Legend and Thommo can understand it, anyone can.

Our tips:

In order of confidence:

1. West Coast       \$1.12
2. Hawthorn      \$1.12
5. Fremantle  \$1.30
6. North Melbourne    \$1.50
7. GWS    \$1.55
8. Sydney     \$1.29
9. Richmond (best roughie) \$2.15

So, we’re going to take:

Multis

1 2                   1.12 x 1.12  =   \$1.25

1 2 3                1.12 x 1.12 x PA

1 2 3 4            1.12 x 1.12 x 1.25 x PA

1 2 3 4 5         1.12 x 1.12 x 1.25 x Freo x PA

1 2 3 4 5 6

And so on to 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9.

Same units on each and we’ll see what happens.

As well, we would take all combinations of 6 selections from the 9 games

That’s 9C6 (which is 9C3) = 168 combinations.

6 winners = 1 successful combination   ONE SO FAR  –  \$4.70

7 winners =  7 successful combinations

8 winners = 28 successful combinations  – JUST DOING THE CALCULATIONS NOW

9 winners = 168 successful combinations

Value at the line:

1. West Coast (-40.5)   Yes
2. Geelong (+30.5)    No
3. Richmond (+4.5)   Yes

No bets. Not enough value. But don’t let us stop you.

Backing both sides

Keep an eye on this. See what value there is in taking all favourites, as well as all opponents at the line. Nine games. 2^9 = 512. Consider 512 units. Not enough confidence in the lines to do this.

Winners are

NM   Adel  Haw  GWS  Syd  WC Freo Rich (line) Bris (line)

Ess (Line) Adel Haw GWS Syd WC Freo Rich (line) Bris (line)

Eg Tonight:

North Melbourne  \$100 @ \$1.50   \$150

Essendon (+12.5)  \$100 @ \$1.92    \$192

How many double results do you need to break even?

Get all the AFL prices at Ladbrokes and look out for the \$2 offer on the Swans.

1. Peter_B says

The H Block analysts obviously haven’t factored in the weather. Subi will be a swamp tomorrow night. Gold Coast are by Royal Artist out of a Centaine mare. Eagles will win, but 40.5 is a big ask in the slop. They had a hard run last week, 3 wide to the turn and still kept finding. But teams aren’t backing up after a couple of hard runs this season (Dockers excepted).
GC at the line are good things but take it carefully. Remember why they are called BrokeLads.

2. Steve Hodder says

Lilydale High knocks off at 2.54 (that’s p.m.). You lot work way too hard.

Yr 8 History calling my attention.

onya

3. Here on the equator we start at 7.30 and kick the kids out at 2.30.

On Fridays we’re allowed to bail early, and whilst I generally don’t, it’s reassuring to think I could be with lager by about 2.45, if medically necessary.

Curious that many schools and prisons feature a H Block.

I’m off to undertake some vigorous interdisciplinary unit planning, prior to a refreshment!

4. Peter_B says

I always wondered why the Almanac readership stats plummeted after 3pm (particularly on Fridays). Now I know.

5. Too true Mickey. I attended three different High Schools and each of them had a H-Block. Strangely enough, there were no more than six buildings at any of them that justified an A through H block nomenclature

6. BernieO says

You are a genius Prof!

So the form guide remains the most important piece of literature in H Block staffroom.

Is Legend still wearing the paisley shirts or have they finally fallen apart? Is the Capella still alive? Still getting those Taylor Mades hooping down the eighteenth at Carbrook Thommo?

Anyone coming over for the Ashes? St Andrews? Oh, that’s right, you blokes are still working.

7. Peter_B says

Apologies for doubting you, H Block Heroes. Mathematics trumps Meteorology. Glad I don’t follow my own tips any more. I could think my way up my own arsehole.
Keep that objective analysis coming.

8. crio says

14 weeks off a year makes it hard to get a routine.

9. BernieO says

Any danger at all of you blokes doing the calculations? Prof, did you save on the Lions at the line for the double result? You’re the ones talking Venn diagrams.

10. BernieO says

My best estimate is 28 combinations x 7.50 (average) = 210