WARNING – Nothing has changed – Ed.
Week Four
Grand Final Winner Market (as of Wednesday 27/8)
Head to Head: Penrith $1.62, Brisbane $2.30
The market again has had little change with Penrith and Brisbane providing the bookies with the final they most probably didn’t want but Rugby League supporters did. Penrith, over the final series, have come in from $2.40 to $1.62 and the Broncos have shortened from $3 into $2.30 over the same period. Both sides were clinical in disposing of their opposition last week as was expected and, for most of us, this was the final that was expected. You can see how tight things are above.
Form Guide
| Pos | Diff. | Home | Form | Next | |
| 1 | Panthers | 68/14 -54 | n/a | 2-0 | Brisbane |
| 2 | Broncos | 68/12 -56 | n/a | 2-0 | Penrith |
Barrier
The top 2 have basically cruised through the grades over the last three weeks, not showing their hand in either match and resting key players well before full time. I’ve added season data above to show just how close they are and have been over the season. They met in Round 1 where the Broncos won 13-12 at Penrith and, in a sense, announced themselves for the season. Then in Round 12 Penrith won 15- 4 at Lang Park. Each side lost to the other at home! The Broncos away record this year is the best in the league and with Alf in charge of the touring party, the Broncos will be relaxed. The 1986 Cox Plate was won by the $1.90 favourite Bonecrusher over Our Waverley Star at $4 in what is remembered as one of the great Cox Plates (if not the greatest). From the 600, when race caller Bill Collins said they may have gone too early, it was a two-horse war.
Not dissimilar to this year’s premiership ,and whilst the lead changed over the last 600, the favourite summoned all his strength and just got there. This premiership looks the same although I think the challenger is right in it. Our Waverley Star had more speed, Bonecrusher greater stamina. As the two champions galloped up the Mooney Valley straight, the lead changed hands. Our Waverly Star had led by almost a length just before the post and the winner was decided by a photo. I think this game will be very tight. Speed and brilliance v stamina, strength and a knowledge of where the finish post is. In their two meetings prior to the Cox Plate, they won one each.
By the way, The Filbert ran third in the race of the century but no-one really cared about that and Queensland’s Racing Minister (and Minister for Everything Else), Russ Hinze, owned Our Waverly Star. When asked by a journalist if it was appropriate for the Racing Minister to own 167 thoroughbreds ,Big Russ replied,“Well ,you want someone who knows the racing game don’t you!” They don’t make pollies like that anymore!
But back to the footy.
As I have stated previously, everyone expected Penrith to be in the final but Brisbane’s season must infatuate even their most ardent supporters. The Broncos are an organisation that demands winning yet they haven’t had Alfie’s Powers hat out for 17 years.
Trainers
Cleary gets the opportunity to join the three-time winner club joining Jack Gibson (once), Ken Kearney (three times), Norm Provan (twice) and Jack Rayner (once). It will etch his name in the history books but it won’t be easy. Walters is new at this GF coaching caper but he has galvanised the Broncos back to where they want to be and his side is young and carefree. They play footy. Fast, wide, open and with ad lib risk not unlike how their coach played and how the Broncos played. That is backed by a new-found mettle in the middle. However, they cannot turn possession over if they are going to win.
Tracks
The track is of no consequence to either team. The Broncos won’t be heading into the game feeling they lack support and Penrith are nobody’s second favourite team. The Broncos have won 6/7 GFs in Sydney so there is no hoodoo at Stadium Sydney and the ground does not provide the intimidation factor that Lang Park does. The weather is expected to peak at 37 around 3pm so the track should be fast by kick off.
Jockey
The Spines:
Penrith Edwards, Luai, Cleary, Yeo
Broncos Walsh, Mam, Reynolds, Carrigan
Front Row
Penrith Fisher-Harris, Leota, Leniu
Broncos Haas, Flegler, Palesia
I see these two battles – between the spines and the furniture movers as the key and there is only a struck match between them. In Penrith’s favour is winning the last two but when you follow the teams winning two before them there is no great success rate. Souths ‘67,’68 and ‘70,’71; Manly ‘72,’73; Easts ‘74,’75; Canterbury ‘85,’86; Canberra ‘89,’90; Brisbane ‘92,’93; and Roosters ‘18,’19; all couldn’t win a third GF and of all those teams only Souths in ‘69, Canterbury in ‘86 and Canberra in ‘91 were able to even make the third GF. South’s loss was a boilover to Balmain; Canterbury’s loss was a try-less war of attrition (4-2) where the formerly flamboyant Eels out defended the Canterbury side that tried to bash them into submission; and Canberra were on the end of a Penrith team destined to finally get their name engraved on the trophy after a dominant second half. Each of these teams was spoken about as ‘unbeatable’, ‘too powerful’, and ‘dynastic’ – I think we are hearing that rhetoric at the moment!
Logo Battle
A tough battle in the wild when a Panther meets a Bronco. The bare-backed Bronco doesn’t mind bucking under the lights whilst the Panther stalks, ready to prey at any point.
Best Queensland Schoolboys (everything in between)
Panthers nil
Broncos Walsh, Cobbo, Mam, Carrigan, Capewell, Haas, Flegler, Walters, Hetherington
Since 1987 the Walters name (through Steve, Kevin and Kerrod) has played in 14 GFs winning 11. Will Billy add to that significant milestone?
A father/son combination in both teams. One son a team financier, and the other a boilerroom stoker. It is difficult to split these two sides.
Kobe Hetherington is the son of Jason Hetherington who played in three GFs for the Bulldogs, winning one and losing one to the Broncos.
Conclusion
Penrith will want the game to be structured. Cleary likes to play his version of ‘force ‘em back’ where he can slowly put you into coffin corner and let you make a mistake. Then attack with their strike weapons. Brisbane need their kick chasers and back three to prevent this, and with Walsh and Cobbo anything could happen. Brisbane cannot kick to To’o unless it’s a bomb and Cobbo has to be all over him. Brisbane have to play to win whereas Penrith can wait for Brisbane to win it for them with poor control. Reynolds and Capewell are the keys to preventing this.
I am thinking Brisbane may have a slight edge and I think they can win. My Clive Churchill Medallist bet will be Carrigan ($14) and Martin ($19) and I will also have them both as first try scorer -$51 and $19 and a multi as any time try scorers ($36). I will be having the Queensland trifecta of Easts in the State Final, Gold Coast ($2.50) in the WNRL and Brisbane in the NRL ($2.30) but I can’t find the odds on that. If anyone wants to set me, let me know. I’ll be watching the game with a pocket full of money when my mate Borker’s horse Diamil wins the Epsom and washing down a couple of pies with a combination of XXXX Bitter and Powers Ultra Smooth Lager.
Well, there it is Almanac readers and remember gamble irresponsibly! You have gotta love the footy!
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