NRL Finals Week 3 – Prop in the Canefield: You gotta love footy!

 

Well, it’s not hard to predict that I should’ve tipped Cronulla. I didn’t get them right all year and the semi-final was no different. The Cowboys were poor. The game started at a great pace and was very entertaining until the penalty try. I doubt whether it was a penalty try, however if it wasn’t, Cotter would have gone for 10 and the cost may well have been the same or worse. From that point the Cowboys didn’t aim up and the Sharks scored again in the very next set. Alarm bells rang and really from that point it was difficult to see the Cowboys winning.  

The Cowboys went into half-time at 24-nil and defence has been the Cowboys problem all season. Coach Payton will really have to make a change to the defensive structure going forward. They just leaked too many points. They attempted a comeback but injuries to Feldt and Holmes really affected their chances. Dearden and Cotter were again the standout Cowboys and I didn’t think Drinkwater, in the big show, showed enough and he certainly isn’t in the top fullback conversations. For Cronulla, Trindall was outstanding and their pack out-muscled the Cowboys. The Cronulla back 5 were very good. Their wingers are dangerous, the fullback is dangerous, and the two centres were very solid.

However, I’m going to say it again. I think that’s the end of the road for Cronulla wins this year although Fitzgibbon has done an excellent job as coach with the Sharks.  I have great difficulty seeing them getting past Penrith this weekend.

Crabman’s Claw Final Points:
3 Trindall, 2 Dearden, 1 Mulitalo (yes, a winger)

 

Likewise, Manly’s prospects against the Roosters nosedived in the first minute, first when Koula and then Jake Trbojevic both had HIAs. I’m not sure why Koula tried to iron out JWH in the first tackle of the game. Hargreaves has been knocking blokes over in that first tackle for a decade, so why he tried to take him on defies logic. Am I making my point? Those two HIAs, the loss of Koula for the entire match and Trbojevic for the first 15 minutes really impacted on the Sea Eagles’ possibilities. Add to that Turbo was not at full strength and Manly were always going to be struggling.

Tedesco was very good for the Roosters and their pack dominated. It was virtually sorted out in the first minute. However, like Cronulla I cannot see the Roosters progressing any further as Melbourne will be too strong for them in the Preliminary Final this week. Melbourne will feed off any Roosters mistakes and the Roosters still have too many mistakes in their play. No surprise, but it’s looking very much like a Melbourne v Penrith grand final in a fortnight.

Crabman’s Claw Final Points
3 Tedesco, 2 Manu, 1 Olakau’atu

 

The Friday night game has the Storm up against the Roosters. The Roosters have come through their strong defeat over Manly last weekend in good shape, but Melbourne is a completely different opposition. It will be a full house at AAMI Park in Melbourne and that really won’t worry the Roosters as they may thrive a little bit on the theatre of it. Apparently, there is a Sydney side in the AFL final the next day which may well boost the Tricolours’ support at the match.  

However, I just think that Melbourne has been too good this year. There has been a lot said about the Roosters’ record against the top two sides recently and it is very poor. One win out of 21 games and a poor performance in their last three matches against the Storm. The Roosters are getting back closer to their best side and that will make a difference. But they are without Walker, their halfback who offered so much in attack and with his kicking  game. Brandon Smith, although much maligned, was finding good form towards the end of the season. Their three-quarters will have to outpoint the unheralded Meaney and the emerging Howarth if they are to win.

Melbourne will be clinical, they won’t make mistakes, and they will play in the grind for the entire match. The Roosters, at times, have been undisciplined and of course with JWH in the team and Radley, who knows if they won’t have men in the bin for a stretch. It should be a cracking good game, but I think Melbourne will get the chocolates.

Origin count: Melbourne 2, Roosters 5.

 

The second game on Saturday evening has the mighty Penrith Panthers up against my bogey side, the Sharks. We all know what Penrith can and will try to do, so I thought I at least owed it to the Sharks to see where they could win the game. So much of their game will depend on the performance of their halves. Trindall was outstanding last week and his kicking game was first class. Hynes, given the week and the pressure he was under, I thought, also played well.

But the key thing for both Trindall and Hynes is to have pinpoint accuracy in their kicks so that their outstanding wingers, Mulitalo and Katoa, have the opportunity to terrorise their smaller and less agile Penrith wingers. The back five of Cronulla have been so good, and when they swing the ball wide they are dangerous, especially if Nikora, who is an underrated back-rower, can straighten them up. But again, everything must go right for Cronulla to win. Their forward pack is tradesmen like, they’ll work hard, they’ll stay in the contest, but it is their back five who will really have to be on fire, making no mistakes and chasing down every kick.

They must try and put as much pressure on Penrith as they start each set, not conceding penalties, nor making mistakes. Cronulla will make too many and I think that’s where the game will be decided. If Sorensen is back, the task gets harder. But you all know my record with the Sharks!

Origin count: Penrith 5 Cronulla 2.

 

So far, each higher placed final 8 team has won and I don’t see that changing this weekend.

So, my selections are, and my Grand Final prediction is: No Change – Penrith and Melbourne.

 

I had the opportunity to go to Kayo Stadium at Redcliffe on Sunday to watch the QRL Host Cup final. It was a cracking good game between Brisbane Norths and Redcliffe. And Norths were the better side on the day. It was a very entertaining match and Redcliffe really attempted to buckle the Devils at the start of the second half, but the Devils withstood the pressure and ran out deserved winners in that competition.

The two curtain raisers to this match were the City versus Country men’s and women’s matches. Country ran out winners in the women’s match, scoring late in the game for their victory, and in the men’s match Country again ran out winners in what was a very entertaining game. Especially, given the fact that two of my columnists had boys playing. The Prospector’s two sons played for City and the Councillor’s son played for Country, and they all played well. It was a great day at Redcliffe and it was a terrific crowd to watch the games. Norths now go on to play the winner of Newtown and North Sydney in the grand final of the national competition on grand final day.

 

Odd Rugby League facts!

It was very interesting to hear the Sharks coach Craig Fitzgibbon talking about a ‘confirmation bias’ last week when discussing his half-back. Daniel Kahneman, a psychologist and the co-author of Thinking Fast and Slow, a tremendous book which I’ve read and used many times, talks about the confirmation bias. As Fitzgibbon explained:

‘You see a couple of things that he hasn’t done. Then it’s out there, it’s spoken about, but to prove yourself right, you constantly go to the things that he’s not doing well, and it just becomes like momentum. We all do it. Once you have a set of beliefs, we look for evidence to back it up and you just keep talking about it. But there’s plenty of good stuff too, so let’s focus on the good stuff and hopefully he gives us more of that.’

So, basically, Fitzgibbon is saying that we (or the media) have an interpretation that is adopted, and we force everything to fit that interpretation. Fitzgibbon used Kahneman’s theory around confirmation bias to explain why his star half-back Hynes was being so maligned. I can see the Cronulla players, note pads in hand, taking notes on Heuristic’s Peak End Theory and Prospect Theory. The process, of course, that occurs in perception always resolves in ambiguity. And that’s why we shouldn’t necessarily always trust everything that we think. Especially what the media (this column excepted) feeds us.  

Of course, when I think of the Sharks I think more of the hindsight bias. That, of course, is believing that past events were more predictable than they actually were! Who says Rugby League isn’t cerebral?

 

PS Crabman’s Claw Leader Board will be up next week.

 

You gotta love footy finals time!

 

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