Cam Hooke’s Collingwood Life: Round 15 – Preview: Who’d believe it!
True believers, all of us. Greetings.
Who’d have believed it a couple of years ago – 11 and 2. A great performance.
But, firstly, another welcome. Ted, welcome. This is just a bit of fun. We are all ‘family’ where there no right or wrong answers, just ideas; so we look forward to hearing from you.
Round 14
Our Bye. I know Cox went to Bali; anyone else? Where did Jordy go this year?
Your comments?
Round 15
The next few games are important in spite of the Ladder positions given how much the standard of play has varied across the season, so far. Adelaide were ferocious (in Adelaide) but have Lost to the GC and WB in the last month. The GC Lost to Melbourne by 5 Points (our Loss was by 4 Points) but Won against Adelaide a few weeks back. And the WB Won against Carlton and Adelaide (this one by 45 Points) Losing to GC, Geelong and PA before that. So, up and down – one week at a time.
Sunday, 25 June – Collingwood plays Adelaide at the MCG; bounce at 1.10pm. Current betting: $1.31/ $3.46. I don’t believe it.
This game is between 2nd (us; 11 and 2 on 135.1%) and 7th (them; 7 and 6 on 116.5%). The Ladder place may change between now and the game but not the other detail.
Them
We beat Adelaide at Adelaide Oval in Round 7 by one Point. They took a 16 Point lead into the final change and Lost by 1 Point. The Scoring shots comparison was 19 (us) / 23 (them). How fair was that? But what does it say – was that Win exceptional? Sure was. Adelaide, out of 8 home games has Won 6 times; 7 if you add their close Loss to us; and 8 out of 9 if you add the Tasmanian game. There’s lots of pundits out there saying “They can’t travel”.
They’ve put together an interesting season with some notable Wins and some notable Losses – their Round 7 Loss to us at home by 1 Point was an exception, their R10 Loss to the WB, away, appears quite routine, their R11 Win against Brisbane at home was also routine and their R12 Loss to GC away tells the whole story. But I would never underestimate Adelaide. I have no idea why they perform so well at home and so poorly away. What it says to me is they have the potential to play well against us, wherever and whenever.
Game Plan. They make great use of their Midfield; and a couple of individuals up Forward. Interestingly, nothing said and no-one identified out of their Defence (apart from that game when Dawson sat at CHB).
Significance. Win the Midfield battle and close down the Forward individuals. Simple, as always.
Players to Watch?
- Dawson – CHB / Wing / Centre. He has figured in their Best 11 times out of their 13 games. Likely need to tag;
- Laird – Centre. Very similar to above – figured nine times in Best;
- Rankine – Forward;
- Keays – HF / Rover;
- Walker – Forward;
- Rachele – HF / RR; and
- O’Brian – Ruck.
Roles?
- Dawson is sitting 7th in the Coaches’ assessment; Laird is sitting 17th. Tag Dawson – Adams?
- Close defence on Tex and Rankine up Forward.
- Watch for attempts to tag our players / implement counter-tagging plan, accepting the logic that this, generally, removes an additional effective opponent from the opposition.
Us:
A few new injuries from the Eagles’ game didn’t seem to have much impact on the Melbourne game availability, presumable of less significance now following the Bye break. This Round? Maybe N.Daicos starting in the Midfield role? He was hugely significant in Q4 of the Melbourne game. Importantly, there are a number of players nearly ready to return from injuries – Howe, McStay, Elliott and Ginnivan (sickness).
- Team? Suggest a bit of a review including a few changes:
- Maintain Lipinski and Harrison;
- Continue to use Frampton relieving in the ruck role;
- Keep Pendles in the Backline providing additional stability to the Back 6;
- Howe back in the Intercept Backline role in addition to Moore as soon as available;
- Maintain Markov in the Substitute role. He brings speed to this, when needed;
- Ginnivan, McStay and Elliott back; and
- Rest others. Your choices / ideas?
- Heading towards the Finals. There will be a need to establish and maintain the selection pool for Finals’ games. Working towards this requires the players, potentially to be called upon, to be appropriately ‘blooded’. The next few Rounds provide a good opportunity to do so without endangering a Top 4 finish. Who am I talking about? Begg, Kreuger and Kelly, for example. Views?
- Application? No change – Application for four full Quarters. Hold the tackles. Establish and maintain control of the game (Contested Possessions).
- Game Plan? No change to the current plan – Drive out of the Backline as well as the Midfield. Use varied entry to the 50 and be willing to move the ball to a better-placed goal scorer than delivering to packs. Crumb around packs.
My Picks: Win by 29 Points. BOG – N. Daicos – 43 Disposals, 7 Clearances, 5 Tackles, 2 Goal Assists and 1 Goal. Mihocek grabs another 5; Jack & Bobby get two each. Jack gets three Frees for head-high tackles.
Ground Reports. Loved the Reports from attendees. Let’s see some reporting, please, from those who couldn’t attend but watched the game on TV – all views are welcome. Do we have any people going? Could you report please?
Weather. Likely very light rain on the day and on days leading to it. Get out the boots with ‘stops’.
TV: Kayo or FOXTEL – Best for every game.
No Free to Air TV coverage.
Future:
- Round 16 – Saturday, 1 July – GC Suns versus Collingwood at the Heritage Bank Stadium, Queensland; bounce at 4.35pm. Do we have anyone from up there?
- Round 17 – Friday, 7 July – Collingwood versus Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium; bounce at 7.50pm. Anyone going?
- Round 18 – Saturday, 15 July – Collingwood versus Fremantle at the MCG; bounce at 1.45pm. Going?and
- The Ladder. Keep an eye on the Ladder as we approach the midpoint of the Season (yes, still a couple of weeks off) leading to some big moves on the Ladder. Have a look – GC beat Adelaide; Richmond beat GWS. Where are Freo and Port sitting? Your thoughts?
Other:
- VFL – The VFL side have a Bye this coming weekend too, with a game against Frankston on Saturday, 24 June at the Kinetic Stadium followed by Sydney at the AIA Centre on Sunday 2 July. Both opponents are well below Collingwood on the Ladder – 17th and 20th compared with the Pies’ 13thplace. Anyone going?
- Anything that you would like to inform our members of, just Reply to all or send it to me.
Believe always. Go Pies.
Cam
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Another heart-stopper! So great to have Howe back.