Greetings All,
What a feast we are in for over the next six weeks with 48 teams, 101 matches to decide the FIFA World Cup. 48 teams seems excessive and only eliminating 16 of them in the first phase doesn’t seem quite right. The benefit for Australia being it should give them a great chance to reach the Round of 32 knock out stage. It won’t be easy though with USA (16) and Turkiye (20) ranked above the Socceroos (28), then a dangerous South American team in Paraguay (30) in the group. Not quite the “Group of Death” but pretty close. To clinch the cup a team will need to win 5 matches in a row and would think at least one of those would go to a penalty shoot out. It all kicks off at 5:00am Friday with Mexico vs South Africa. Australia opens its campaign against Turkiye at 2:00pm Sunday.
Now on to the local stuff!
In the Nick of Time (64%) vs Butt Out (36%)
Some defensive heroics from Nick Coffield was crucial in getting the Dogs over the line last week, while NIck Murray gets a chance to be the defensive hero for the Crows with Jordan Butts out with another soft tissue injury. Both teams prevailed in nail-biters last week, the Bulldogs getting it down to an art form. 6 of their 8 wins have been by a goal or less, one of them against Adelaide back in Round 3. Critical for the win-loss, but percentage needs a boost. Just the one change with Luke Kennedy to make his debut, while the Crows lose three but Thilthorpe is back. He could be the key with no obvious match up in the Dogs backline, Lobb may be forced back there but has been important in supporting English. At the other end Naughton is always a handful and the clash of the captains in the middle is worth the ticket. That will be the key to the game and which midfield can prevail. Can Adelaide return the favour and win in the Loungeroom? It’s possible, they have won their last four there. Just the Bulldogs play it too well and are the most likely victor in a close one.
Back at Holmes (91%) vs Dimmed (9%)
The Cats get back to Kardinia Park after just being pipped in their last two games. They host the Suns who were not quite ready for the heat the Lions brought last week and need to bring their own this week. The key issue they need to address is clearance where they dropped from 5th in 2025 to 14th this season. By personnel they should be better with the inclusion of Petracca. For all that they still lie seventh with a game in hand over the team above them including Geelong. Would expect any team coached by Hardwick to respond after last week’s loss, however this one of the toughest road trips in footy. They have the team to challenge, especially with Tom Stewart missing. However they are yet to win at the venue and expect that record to stay intact.
Kosi fan Tutte (95%) vs Some Merrett (5%)
With the exclusion of Collingwood supporters we are all fans of Kosi, who dazzled on Monday to get the Demons over the line. He might need to again this time up against the Bombers who have a win over Melbourne already this year. Their effort against the Blues last week was much stronger than we have seen of late, can they back it up? At least they will have Jordan Ridley back to help in defense and the probability of a wet day evens them up. Doubt they can go with the Demons long enough before class will win out, and Melbourne are perfect at the G this year.
Bunburied (64%) vs Yeo Yeo (36%)
The Roos will be keen to respond to last week’s drubbing as they host the Eagles in Perth. West Coast will want to rebound from the tough loss to the Power last week. These games make a complete mockery of the fixture. A result here could be the difference between North or West Coast getting a top ten position. (Not that they really matter) Adding to the Roos challenge will be the loss of Hardiman and Sullivan, but the Eagles have their own issues needing to cover for their defensive rock Reuben Gibney who is also out. They will have a challenge matching up with Larkey. Suspect that North’s will be greater to match up Yeo, Reid and Kelly in the middle which just sways me the locals way.
Forced Lai Off (14%) vs Blood Pressure (86%)
Port and Sydney got the close ones last week but at a cost with Josh Lai out the Port, while McInerney and McCartin joined the Sydney injury list. Can Port repeat their effort against the Cats to down the Swans. Sydney will have a depleted line up so must have some chance, but these Swans just seem to find what it takes. Having Isaac Heeney helps, he just knows the right time to inject himself into a game. Despite the depletion, expect the Swans to be good enough to win this.
Tassie Tigers? (1%) vs Kings of Queensland (99%)
Hobart gets its game with Richmond hosting Brisbane in what looks to be a one-sided affair. Tigers will be keen for redemption from the beating they took from Sydney, tough having stew on it for two weeks. If Nankervis returns it will make them more competitive, but they still won’t win.
Permission to Fly (58%) vs The Flying Finn (42%)
Saints got a few back and showed how dangerous they can be by almost taking out the Swans. Liam Ryan showed all his skills, in particular the aerial ones. They host the Giants in what should be a great contest. Adam Kingsley’s faith in the team was vindicated with their win in Alice Springs where Finn Callaghan and Lachie Ash did as they pleased. Expect Ross to make it tougher for them this week. These two are pretty evenly matched and that being the case expect St Kilda to be good enough in the Loungeroom.
Track Time
Not quite off Broadway this but not far away as we head to Sandown for the Melbourne meeting. With rain predicted during the day expect them to swing wide as the day progresses on a heavy surface. Winners might be hard to find and will be looking for the ducks. Eagle Farm has the big races with the highlight being the time-honoured Stradbroke Handicap.
Sandown
Just looking at the quaddie legs this week. Will pick out Punch Lane (R5, #1) is 3 from 4 on heavy, looks a handy each way selection. Respect the favourite Cicala (R6, #15) coming from SA with a perfect record in the wet, however prefer the each way chances of Nimbustwothousand (R6, #8). The import Simurgh (R7, #5) has that good habit of winning. Tazima (R9, #10) is down in the weights and 2 wins and a second from 3 on the heavy. Odds are short but looks very well in. They scratched Lovelycut (R9, #4) last week, great chance if she runs here.
Quaddie
Leg 1 – 8, 9, 11, 14, 15
Leg 2 – 5, 7, 9
Leg 3 – 4, 7, 8, 9 10
Leg 4 – 4, 8, 12, 14
300 Combinations (if they all run), a $30 investment will return 10% of the dividend
Eagle Farm
Race 7 – J J Atkins (G1, 1600m, 2YO SW)
Never an easy race to assess as the babies stretch out to the mile, however Tron Bolt (4) looks impressive and JMac aboard should give it a good run. Most of the opposition competed in the Sires with Martist (2) doing its best work late so the extra 200m should suit, while the victor Berzelius (1) must also be considered. The filly Voynichese (12) won well over 1500m last start.
Selections – 4 – 2 – 1 – 12
Race 8 – Stradbroke Hcp (G1, 1400m, HCP)
Regal Award (18) takes a step up here, but found his form last start and is weighted to win here. Have to respect Headley Grange (7) after winning the Kingsford Smith and can back it up. Top weight might be a burden for Fangirl (1) but she gets JMac and a big chance if the track is dry. At odds Desert Lightning (5) should get a good run from a favourable barrier. Promote Sixties (19 em1) if he makes the field.
Selections – 18 – 19 – 7 – 1 – 5
Race 9 – Q22 (G2, 2200m, WFA)
With Pride of Jenni (10) in the field we can expect a solid pace. How hard she goes will be interesting given she has not won beyond 2000m and that has been a bit too far recently. Sets up well for the new kid on the block Zambardo (8) who looks up to WFA standard. Expect the cup winner Half Yours (1) to be fully wound up and a great chance, while Vauban (2) will appreciate the extra distance. Reckon Jenni can just hold on for the consolation prize.
Selections – 8 – 1 – 2 – 10
Go Blues, Go Socceroos!
Cheers, Sal
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