Cam Hooke’s Collingwood Life: Round 20 Review / Round 21 Preview

 

G’day everyone; True Believers all.

 

Do not lose hope. We had a two-game margin, plus percentage, clear at the top of the table. Following Port’s Loss to Adelaide (and Brisbane’s Loss to the GC) that is still the margin. We are on the way to finishing the season on the Top. I need to check – I think our first Final, after a week off, is 1 versus 4, so watch which team is likely to end up 4th – and after this weekend I would be highly hesitant regarding trying to predict anything. Did anyone pick the GC to beat Brisbane? How about Freo beating Geelong at Kardinia Park? Or Sydney winning away from Sydney at Marvel over Essendon? We have a way to go until the Finals.

 

‘Expert predictions’? Have a look at what some of the ‘experts’ think – go to www.msn.com/en-au/sport/other/afl-ladder-prediction-every-club-s-run-home-fixture-results/ar-AA1elVIi?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=aa427be5a4464667896cf89dfb2a4679&ei=2. Everyone can have an opinion. What’s yours?

 

Go Pies.

 

Round 20

 

Collingwood 10.16.76 were defeated by Carlton 14.9.93.

 

Goals scored:

Q1: 3 (us) / 3 (them);

Q2: 1 / 4 Leading to a 17 Point margin at HT;

Q3: 2 / 3. They Won Q2 and we failed to exploit our Q3 dominance resulting in a 19 Point deficit to recover at the last change;

Q4: 4 / 4. And we couldn’t; so

Total: 10 / 14. and we Lost.

 

 

Match Reportwww.afl.com.au/afl/matches/4948#match-report.

 

Coach’s Reportwww.afl.com.au/video/988535/full-post-match-r20-magpies?videoId=988535&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1690552426001&references=AFL_MATCH:4948. Interesting comments from the Boss – an acknowledgement that in Q2 Carlton took control and forced the game away from Collingwood’s preferred style and while he considered the Pies had had “enough chances” during the game, there was the very clear acknowledgement that “we have to do better”. Worth watching. There haven’t been too many interviews following Losses, thankfully.

 

Numbers:

 

Measure Statistics Remarks
Hit Outs 38 / 33 Okay. Cameron has preformed well as our Ruck. I think his tenure is still worthy of review with effect to a future acquisition. Is Grundy back on the market?
Clearances 31 / 41 Very poor. This margin reflects the Midfield achievement. Carlton dominated, particularly in Q2.
    from Centre 12 / 13
    from Stoppages 19 / 28
Inside 50s 53 / 49 Critical & a surprise. You normally expect the Clearance margin to be broadly reflected in the Inside 50s numbers. This may also be affected by our drive out of the Backline rather than reliance out of the Midfield.
Goals scored 10 / 14 See next.
Scoring Shots 26 / 23 We scored very poorly during that period when we were in charge. Look at the difference in Goal / Behind ratios.
Disposal Efficiency 75.2% / 71.6%
DE Inside 50 47.2% / 46.9% Critical. With an advantage in Inside 50 numbers and an advantage here we should have recorded a simple Win. Statistically we got the ball into the 50 more frequently and used it more effectively. And Lost. I don’t know why.
Marks Inside 50 18 / 10 Contributes to DE Inside 50.
Tackles Inside 50 7 / 13 As above, so they cancel each other out on this occasion.
Players with DE > 80 % 12 / 6 A surprise when noted below the individual DE comparison with their Season Average. Too often disposals were going astray.
Tackles 54 / 64 Combined they provide the basis for a comparison of team application. Here Carlton won.
Contested Possessions 109 / 142
1 %’ers 45 / 34
Free Kicks 22 / 17 A surprise to me.

 

Best: The AFL website identifies our Best as Moore, J.Daicos, Murphy, Howe, N.Daicos and De Goey. Each of these played well for periods; I didn’t think anyone played well for four Quarters. I’d probably add Pendles to the list as well; he was just always there.

 

Game / Deductions / Lessons. This was not a great game of football. It was a great battle far more closely aligned with ‘Finals’ footy’ than H&A games, but we were fairly beaten on the scoreboard; the only place that really matters. Our Q2 performance was poor. We allowed them to decide how the game was to be played and they established a 17 Point margin based on 10 (us) / 12 (them) scoring shots. We appeared never able to pull this back – by the Final change their margin had increased to 19 Points based on 17 / 16 scoring shots. Note, here, we added 7 scoring shots for the Quarter compared with their 4. What this says about our performance in Q3 is that we scored a lot of Behinds. This matches my recollection and the Coach’s comments. Ultimately they Won with a margin of 17 Points based on 26 / 23 scoring shots. Quite frankly, to Lose by less than three kicks when we played pretty badly gives us a positive belief for the future.

 

 A couple of other comments:

 

  • The numbers that concern me are the Contested Possessions, the hallmark of our application in the past, and our Disposal Efficiency inside the 50, a reflection of our use of the ball at a critical time;
  • We again kicked high ‘up and under’s towards to goal square rather than targeting leading forwards. This resulted in few pack marks (until Howe was moved) however we did crumb around the packs reasonably well;
  • Kick-in’s were too slow and were frequently intercepted. We badly need to fix this;
  • Disposal Effectiveness. Our Disposal Efficiency were way below our Season averages. This was clearly a consequence of Carlton’s pressure as demonstrated by disposals being frequently intercepted or going directly to an opponent. The critical numbers, for example (to pick on a few): Mihocek – 25.0% (game) / 67.0% (season average), Maynard – 59.1%, 74.4%, Elliott – 54.5% / 64.3%, N.Daicos – 53.6% / 75.5% and Adams – 50.0% / 65.2%.
  • Midfield control is essential to add to our drive from the Backline, not just out of the Centre. De Goey and Nick D had an off day; maybe swapping Adams for De Goey might have been an option? Pendles swapping with Mitchell is a good arrangement – brings a high level of experience to the Centre;
  • Many of our players (Most? All?) will have the opportunity to improve next week. See team suggestions below; and
  • I was pretty disappointed with the crowd – 86,785. We can do better. We’ll see what the Pies / Cats game is like.

 

Your views?

 

Injuries. Not sure.  Certainly, we are coming good at the right time of the year.

 

Your comments?

 

 

Round 21

 

Saturday, 5 August – Hawthorn versus Collingwood at the MCG; bounce at 4.35pm.

 

This game is between 1st (us with 16 Wins and 3 Losses) on 132.7% percentage and  16th (them with 5 Wins and 14 Losses) on 78.4%. Current betting: $1.15 / $5.50. Perhaps, not surprisingly, we are favourites.

 

Them

 

  • In broad terms Hawthorn has had a poor season. They’ve achieved five, sometimes surprising, Wins including against North (twice), the WCE (by 116 Points), St Kilda in Round 10 and Brisbane in Round 13. Not much since. They have, however, produced some close battles, which they ultimately Lost – Round 5 against GWS by 2 Points, Round 6 against Adelaide by 3 Points and Round 19 against Richmond by 1 Point. So, they were looking fairly competitive between Rounds 5 and 13.
  • I watched some of their game against Richmond and some of their most recent game against St Kilda, which they Lost substantially (unlike their R11 result).
  • Hawthorn are a team undergoing development. They have a mix of new, young players and a few older, more experienced ones. They are competitive for periods.

 

Deductions: They are heavily reliant on the Midfield and corridor. We should Win comprehensively.

 

Players to Watch?

 

  • Worpel – RR / Rover / Centre;
  • Sicily – CHB / BP;
  • Day – RR / Rover / HB;
  • Hardwick – CHB;
  • Newcombe – RR / Centre;
  • Impey – HB / BP;
  • Nash – Rover;
  • Amon – Wing if playing, may be injured; and
  • Lewis – FP / FF.

 

Also keep an eye on Ramsden – Ruck who has been absent for a couple of weeks after a concussion incident, and Brandon Ryan – Forward for his 2nd game, picked up at the mid-season draft this year.

 

Roles?

 

  • Note emphasis of their Best in Midfield with Best Forward and Back. Sicily was tagged out of his defensive dominance by St Kilda. Worth considering.
  • Noting Forward and Back Best – need to control their use of the corridor?
  • Need to compete for game control through CP / tackles / 1%’ers?
  • Close attention / tagging to Lewis & Ryan?
  • Watch for attempts to tag our players / implement counter-tagging plan, accepting the logic that this, generally, removes an additional effective opponent from the opposition.

 

Us:

 

Hawthorn are a better side than their Wins reflect. A few suggested changes:

 

  • Team? Suggest a continuing review including a few changes:
  • Krueger replaces Lipinski.
  • Ginnivan replaces Elliott (Managed).
  • Begg replaces Cameron or Cox (Managed).
  • Markov replaces Hoskin-Elliott as Sub.
  • Alternate inclusions to the above – Carmichael, Kelly, McInnes? Others?
  • Your choices / ideas?

 

  • Important. Heading towards the Finals (same comment as previous weeks). There will be a need to establish and maintain the selection pool for Finals’ games. Working towards this requires the players, potentially to be called upon, to be appropriately ‘blooded’. The final H&A Rounds provide an opportunity to do so without endangering a Top 4 finish. Who am I talking about? Begg, Kreuger and Kelly, for example. Views?
  • Application? No change – Application for four full Quarters. Hold the tackles. Establish and maintain control of the game (Contested Possessions).
  • Game Plan? No change to the current plan – Drive out of the Backline as well as the Midfield. Use varied entry to the 50 and be willing to move the ball to a better-placed goal scorer than delivering to packs. Crumb around packs. Importantly, I’d like to see the kick-in progress more smoothly out of the Backline – I think speed, planning and preparedness have a lot to do in achieving this. The link between De Goey and Nick D, now almost permanently Midfield, is working well; as is the back stop by Pendlebury or Mitchell.

 

My Picks:

 

Win by 37 Points. BOG – N. Daicos – 41 Disposals, 12 Clearances, 6 Tackles and 501 mG. Mihocek and Ginnivan both get 5.

 

Ground Reports. Loved the Reports from attendees. Let’s see some reporting, please, from those who couldn’t attend but watched the game on TV – all views are welcome. Do we have any people going? Could you report please? And always Reply to All please?

 

Weather.  Very low chance of rain on the day or leading to it. Plastic soled boots okay.

 

TV:      Kayo or FOXTEL – Best for every game.

 

No Free to Air TV coverage for this one. Kayo or down to the pub?

 

Future:

 

 

  • Round 22 – Friday, 11 August – Collingwood versus Geelong at the MCG; bounce at 7.50pm. FTA coverage on 7mate. We are going; anyone else?
  • Round 23 – Friday, 18 August – Collingwood versus Brisbane at Marvel; bounce at 7.50pm. FTA coverage on 7mate. Anyone going?
  • Round 24 – Date / time TBA – Essendon versus Collingwood at the MCG. Likely FTA coverage. Our last H&A game – worth going before the Finals kick in?
  • The Ladder. Keep an eye on the Ladder as we approach the Finals. Have a look at recent results and moves. As above who could have expected a Season to finish like this one? Your thoughts?

 

 

Other:

 

 

  • VFL – The VFL side produced a great Win last week over Carlton by 28 Points. Their Round  20 game – Werribee versus Collingwood – is on Sunday, 6 August at Avalon Airport Oval; bounce at 12.00pm. Anyone going?
  • Bucks, out of retirement, and what happens? Go to www.foxsports.com.au/video/afl/afl/nathan-buckley-injured-in-footy-return!862895.
  • Anything that you would like to inform our members of, just to all or send it to me.

 

Believe always. Go Pies.

 

Cam

 

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