Greetings, True Believers.
Like father, like sons: Go to the links CLICK HERE and HERE and also HERE
(Thanks BT, probably a little optimistic.).
The wait is nearly over. Our season starts in just over a week; and what a game to start with? Geelong, the Premiers, again. I am getting excited. You? I would welcome your comments / ideas / etc?
Last time: Geelong 11.12.78 defeated Collingwood 10.12.72.
Match Report – HERE. Check the Team Statistics here. A couple of observations – the numbers for both teams were very close across the board except for a couple of areas of significance:
- Hit Outs. We dominated 48 (us) / 34 (them) but importantly the next step, Clearances, we were back virtually equal. So? We were getting no benefit from the ruck dominance. We were being sharked in the Midfield;
- Efficiency Inside 50. With close numbers of Inside 50s, their efficiency was much higher (42.9% / 49.1%) meaning the obvious, they used the ball better inside the 50, scoring;
- Contested Possessions. Geelong dominated this number – 134 / 155 in spite of our marking dominance – 90 / 62 indicating their pursuit of possession. I’m not suggesting a game of ‘keep-ems off’, just that ‘Possessions win matches’.
So what resulted?
- Time in Front. Us – 91.51 c/f Them – 25.29. Of course, the only time it matters is when the final siren goes (and even then, not always. Remember Carlton. Thanks Billy, great kick).
And Geelong Won.
Coach’s Interview – HERE. Worth listening to, particularly his explanation of the difference between losing a game and being a loser.
Where have we come from? Heading into the G against Geelong in our Final, we had achieved the quite extraordinary number of narrow Wins. Then Geelong beat us by 6 Points, we comfortably beat Freo by 20 and Sydney beat us by a solitary Point at the SCG. Need a reminder of the Geelong game finish? Go to CLICK HERE and head to last two minutes of the video. We went into the final change of that game with a seven Point lead. Geelong outscored us 4.2 to 2.1 in Q4 leading to their Win. In my view a Pies / Cats grannie would have been a significantly more appealing competition than Sydney.
But, that last game against Geelong was a classic. On that occasion our Best were Moore, Pendles, De Goey, J. Daicos, Sidebottom, Crisp and Noble. Geelong’s Best were Cameron, Stewart, Atkins, Dangerfield, Rohan, C. Guthrie and Duncan. Some comments as they relate to our next game are below. And here we are, at the start, again. Go Pies.
Practice Match: Collingwood 15.16.106 defeated Hawthorn 14.16.100.
- Match Report – CLICK HERE
- Coach’s Interview – CLICK HERE
Nothing much to report except Lipinski’s injury, De Goey’s tackle and Nick Daicos’ tagging. Team, let’s start thinking about the dedicated, long-term suffering Pies’ supporters – can we establish a nice, solid lead in Q1 and keep it throughout the game – less stress.
Round 1, 2023:
Game: Friday, 17 March 2023, bounce – 7.40pm. Geelong versus Collingwood at the MCG.
Betting: $1.45 (Geelong to Win) / $2.76 (Pies Win). I don’t remember what the betting was at our last meeting last year but we were certainly not favourites.
Geelong
Geelong are the current Premiers, deservedly so. They showed last year that they were the best team in the competition. But they are a changed team. Selwood has gone – I always considered him the most critical opponent in their team and always suggested he be tagged; many thanks, Levi – always a great job. Dangerfield is another year older placing him amongst the Forwards so he doesn’t have to run. And Hawkins? He had an operation on his foot last year so the possibility is that he may not be back for Round 1.
Unfortunately for us, they still have a solid team with some interesting additions – Ollie Henry from us (not sure where he’ll end up), Clark and Bruhn, already notable, and, of course, Jezza Cameron, in my view the best FF in the competition. That said, Cameron at FF does define how you approach the goal, even more constrained if Hawkins is not there too, dividing the defence.
Geelong use both the corridor and the wings. Their rucks Stanley and Conway perform well in the Midfield seeking to drive out of the Middle, towards leading Forwards. For us, win the Midfield battle through the ruck duel and get the domination of the Midfield Clearances. Our defence needs close-defence of their leading Forwards, ‘bounce-back’ when we take possession launching our attack from way back.
And reports are that Geelong appeared disinterested in their practice matches. Not likely to be the case once the season starts.
Amongst our list of addressees, above, are three Geelong supporters. I would welcome your comments, gentlemen?
Collingwood
Us. Well, most of us like the List changes (nobody liked losing Grundy, of course):
I’m still not a 100% happy with our ruck situation – maybe watch how Begg and Steene progress. I think Cox has done really well but he’s not a bonafide ruck (watch where his taps go) and Cameron appears to be having ongoing hamstring issues. An interesting comment I heard suggested Moore for the role. The commentator suggested he’d be the best ruck in the competition by the end of the year and well on the way to winning a Brownlow (like his Dad). Any comment?
Other Midfield. Mitchell’s arrival is showing real benefits especially his linkages with De Goey who looks as fit as I’ve ever seen him (and he got off that tackle charge with a bit of a fine). Add in J. Daicos, N. Daicos, Adams and Crisp and you are looking at a great combination with the fat to rest them. A recent concern was Hawthorn’s tagging of N. Daicos effectively removing his influence from the game. There were, however, plenty of others in the Midfield but I’d like to see a plan of action to address this in the future.
McStay – outstanding. Hill, did well in Ginnivan’s place. Jack might find it difficult to get it back. Billy – great. Mihocek – a wonderful worker; he is always trying. McInnes and McCreery – another couple of potential arrivals. If you place McStay and Mihocek into the tall Forward roles, adding a resting ruck role that leaves you with three small places – Billy, Hill/ Jack, Lipinski (just decided – operation and out for several months), De Goey and Adams, both on rotation out of the Midfield. And don’t forget Carmichael, our hero from late last year.
Moore and Howe take the intercept roles. Maynard, Murphy, Quaynor, Pendles and Noble fill the places. Consider Hoskin-Elliott, Frampton and resting rotation places from the Midfield for N. Daicos, Frampton and Crisp. And if Moore heads into the ruck role, looking for that second intercept role?
The depth in the team is quite extraordinary. With an exception or two, replacement individuals are clearly identifiable.
Injuries: Lipinski out. Not sure about Cameron.
Game Plan. Our Game Plan, viewed from outside the Club, appears to be to propel the ball forward the fastest way possible using every means open to the players, frequently the corridor rather than the Wings with drive starting wherever it needs to start, from a kick-in or a Clearance win in the Centre. Best example – the passage of the ball from the kick-in to Billy for his kick after the siren. What’s not to like about our Game Plan – they play footy that is great to watch. The only criticism would be that our game needs to last for four complete Quarters; not just in periods. Additionally, every other team will be trying the same approach or trying to nullify it this year. It is no longer a surprise. A couple of things to watch for:
- Hold the tackle – don’t let opponents run through a tackle;
- Clearances? Regardless of the ruck duel outcome, seek to establish Midfield dominance through Clearances and prevent our opposition doing the same to us;
- Goal scoring. Look for, and pass the ball to, a player better placed to kick for Goal even passing inside the 50; and
- Continue to smile and laugh and look like you’re enjoying your footy. Absolutely critical – Have fun.
A suggested team? Difficult to be too prescriptive without having watched training and having a better understanding of how the team went into the practice matches, but a few suggestions:
(Your comments / ideas?)
Midfield:
- Mitchell in. The relationship between him and De Goey is already evident.
- N. Daicos in.
- Ruck – not sure. Cox and Cameron did well last year, but I’m underwhelmed by Cox’s taps – they go all over the place. Maybe trial Moore in the role, swapping with Begg out of the Forward line or Backline.
- Others – De Goey, Adams, J. Daicos, Sidebottom
- Defence: Moore (maybe not), Howe, Frampton, Crisp, Maynard, Quaynor, Kelly. Looking at two tall intercepts and zone defence / man on man close defence, as required. Kelly, give a go.
- Forwards: McStay, Mihocek, Hill, Elliott, McInnes and Begg. Begg, give another go.
- Interchange: Adams, Pendlebury, Noble, Carmichael
That’s one too many. Who should I take out? Your call. Your ideas?
My prediction: Collingwood to Win by 17 Points. BOG – De Goey with 31 Disposals, 11 Clearances and 3 Tackles (all legal). McStay and Hill each get 3 Goals, but Mihocek records 6 GA (Goal Assists) – very close to BOG. Your view?
Weather. Forecast weather for Friday, 17 March is morning clouds, slight wind with a very low chance of rain, however storms with light rain are forecast for the days leading up to it. So, the ground will be wet and the ball slippery. Get rid of the moulded-sole boots and get the ones with stops.
TV: Kayo or FOXTEL best for every game.
Free to Air TV:
Round 1 – Geelong Cats vs. Collingwood, MCG (SEVEN) 7:40pm
Round 3 – Collingwood vs. Richmond, MCG (SEVEN) 7:50pm
Future:
Saturday, 25 March – Round 2. Port Adelaide at the MCG. Have tickets to this one too, thank you David. Looking forward to catching up.
Friday, 31 March – Round 3. Richmond at the MCG.
Other:
I don’t have any other news. I used to use this part for ‘Eddie Watch’ but he’s been a bit quiet lately. I understand he’ll be doing a bit of commentating this season. Whatever.
I am limited by not having a subscription to a Victorian paper, so relevant detail can be limited at times. I appreciate the short alerts at times. Thank you.
Anything that you would like to inform our members of, just Reply to all or send it to me.
Believe always. Go Pies.
Cam
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