Cam Hooke’s Collingwood Life 2025: Round 9 Review / Round 10 Preview

Greetings, True Believers.

 

What a game that was. I was pretty surprised when I noticed that we were not the Favourites given our respective Ladder positions, then, of course, there was the influence of a home-ground, and Freo’s recent performances (ignoring their most recent destruction by St Kilda – rest reasonably competitive). Not sure why our recent performances didn’t seem to matter. But, the game started and the Freo team hit the ground running, at a million miles an hour (no exaggeration) and by mid-Q1 they were 3 goals up and we hadn’t scored (apart from a Behind at the 9-minute mark), and we looked ‘old and tired’, as some commentators are wont to say. And I started to worry.

 

But the game went on from there. See below for details. What is interesting are the ‘statistics’, below, – any rational assessment would very clearly err on one side. But that side didn’t Win. Why? Good question. Let me see if I can take us through to the result? My thanks to those early reporters – much appreciated. I am hugely jealous.

 

But, before that, let me welcome another True Believer, Nic. Nic, this is just a bit of fun, amongst fellow Pies’ tragics – our family. Enjoy it and we’d welcome your comments as we go. There are no right and wrong answers to the football competition issues, mostly it’s just guessing. Go Pies.

 

 

Round 9

 

Collingwood 15.7.97 defeated Fremantle 12.13.83.

 

Scoring shots – 22 (us) / 25 (them). The first odd statistic.

 

Match Report – www.afl.com.au/afl/matches/7038#match-report.

 

Coach’s comments – www.afl.com.au/video/1316785/mcrae-post-match-r9-were-really-really-ecstatic-with-that-win?videoId=1316785&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1746715130001. He recognised the huge performance of the team based on the 5-day break and the travel. He acknowledged the Freo dominance in Inside 50 numbers and Centre Clearances, suggesting there are occasions when “you don’t tell the team the numbers” but replaced that with a “fight to the last” message. Identifies another oddity. Worth watching / listening.

 

Goals scored:

 

Q1       5 (us) / 4 (them). After an early 3-goal start by them, we slowly recovered; surplus at the First Break – plus 5 Points;

Q2       4 / 3. Further control by us in the second half of the Quarter following a bit of a start by them. Surplus at Half Time – plus 10 Points;

Q3       2 / 1. Early dominance by us, then steady. Surplus at the Final Change – plus 15 Points;

Q4       2 / 4. Early fight-back by Freo, wound back by us; and

Total:   15 / 12. The result – a Win by 14 Points. Even with Elliott’s 6 and Hill’s 3, we had seven individual goal-kickers.

 

Statistics

 

Some numbers to seek to identify where there was a substantial difference and how this impacted on the game, watching for the accumulated ‘oddities’:

 

Statistic	Numbers (us / them)	Comment
Disposals	300 / 375	A huge Freo advantage. Why? Don’t know why or in what way this dominance helped them? Handballs – 110 / 169 – a notable strength of ours? They did ‘muck about’ with the ball a lot as we forced their ball movement to the flanks. We were far more direct straight through the corridor.
Hit Outs (HO)	35 / 33	A particularly not-useful number decided by whichever ruck touches the ball first. A better assessment is ‘HO to advantage’. And a much, much better measure is under Clearances, below. This number didn’t surprise me. I thought it was, as shown by the numbers, fairly even.
Clearances	30 / 43	Centre clearance – 8 / 20; and Stoppage clearance – 22 / 23. Another ‘oddity’. This is a much better measure than the above, which should have indicated a substantial advantage to Freo’ scoring. While the HO equivalence is not reflected in the Clearance numbers, this implies their Mids Won the Midfield battle. I think that is fair assessment, but it highlights the incredible performance by our Backline to blunt their Midfield dominance.
Inside 50s	34 / 62	And another ‘oddity’. This is the next step in the heading to Goal and should broadly reflect the Clearance numbers. Well, they expanded on that. The gap here is huge, reflecting the success of their Midfield in the drive forward. Next? Well; Clearance advantage, should be reflected in an Inside 50 advantage, which should be the basis of a scoring advantage. How did they go? With these statistics they should have been on a direct line to a substantial Win.
Disposal Efficiency (DE)	70.0% / 75.5%	A minor advantage to them across the game, overall. See next.
DE Inside 50	73.5% / 40.3%	Another very serious oddity reflecting the performance by our Backline and the performance by our Forwards. The difference here is absolutely critical to the final outcome but needs to be considered together with the Inside 50 numbers rather than a stand-alone comparison.  In this game our huge advantage in DE Inside 50 efficiency seemed to cancel their Inside 50 numbers advantage. This was a game-Winning achievement.
Goals scored	15 / 12	And it did.
Player numbers with DE > 80%	9 / 7	No apparent consequences. I think these numbers also reflect risk-taking in the game, something strongly encouraged by the coaches.
Free Kicks	16 / 17	The approximate equivalence of the Frees amazed me. What I saw that was critical was the failure to penalise, what I thought were obvious, incidents – NickD poked in the face / neck is one example. I am hesitant to claim ‘crowd-influence’ but where the supporter numbers dominate, fairness falls. I would suggest follow-up with the umpires, watching their decisions, asking them “why?”? Inconsistencies still exist – incorrect disposal, caught with the ball, in the back, etc.
Contested Possession (CP)	122 / 134	Combined, the difference in the two measures usually reflects the team style of play. The winning of the CP is less significant than control of the ball through UCP domination. Our team deficient in both categories , reflected a much more direct approach to goal, compared with their use of the Wings. Both teams were successful for periods, though their accuracy let them down. I like it when the ball is locked in our attacking half.
Uncontested Possession (UCP)	170 / 244
Turn-overs (TO)	55 / 61	Close enough. I think the willingness to take risks, encouraged, is also part of this, as identified above.
Possession	42% / 42%	Across the game.
Marks	94 / 102	Marks inside 50 – 14 / 6; and Contested marks – 15 / 12. Our domination of the Marks inside 50 was substantial and contributed positively to scoring. The total Marks’ disadvantage, appears based on the style of each sides’ play – we used much more direct avenue towards goal. The contested mark advantage was relatively minor, though led to some great moves.
Tackles	66 / 48	Tackles inside 50 – 10 / 10. This is another ‘oddity’. This, pretty much, reflected application. I have no compunction in recognising that both sides worked hard; with our boys totally committed for the whole game. The multiple tacklers were impressive, again. Hope Schultz is okay?
1%’ers	42 / 39	Spoils and defensive actions. I haven’t gone back to add up the numbers but the general equivalence supports the contention that both sides were working hard.

 

Best:

 

The AFL website identifies Collingwood’s Best as:

 

• Elliott;
• Crisp;
• Hill;
• Frampton; and
• JoshD.

 

I don’t disagree with any of those identified or the order (well, not too much, anyway) but I would probably have added a few more – Cameron, Howe and Sullivan, each contributed.  Your thoughts?

 

 

Crowd:       Not recorded.

 

Result: A great game reflecting our ability to stabilise a situation and then drive back establishing our dominance. Freo are a capable side and should not be judged on their current Ladder position. Other noticeable aspects include:

 

• The team-performance, mentioned above. Everyone was involved;

• Clearance and Inside 50 numbers were a major achievement by Freo, but our advantage in DE inside 50 against their disadvantage appeared to dominate. The scoring should have reflected the mixing of the advantages and disadvantages of these categories not necessarily in our favour. But we Won, so, obviously, the DE prevailed over their inefficiency;

• Freo Won the Battle of the midfield; but the performance by our Backline and our Forwards was extraordinary; and

• I thought the absence of umpire protection to players was substantial, particularly talents like NickD.

 

In summary, the Pies won because we established control of the game, that we exploited for extended periods, critically Won by our dominant Forwards and Backs.

 

 

Round 10

 

Saturday, 17 May 2025 Collingwood versus Adelaide at the MCG; bounce at 1.20pm. Back home – love it.

 

Betting:           $1.44 (Pies’ Win) / $2.80 (Adelaide Win) – as at 9 May 2025. See where this goes after tonight’s game between Adelaide and Port. Adelaide just Won but no change, yet.

 

This is a game between 1^st and 5^th, at the moment, on the Ladder, noting that if Brisbane beat North (unlikely, of course, I hear you say); but if they do, they’ll jump over us. We are Favourites, again at the moment.

 

One other thing – the VFL and VFLW teams are playing at Vic Park before and, unfortunately, during the MCG game – detail below. Consider multiple-game attendances?

 

 Them:

 

Adelaide were also being talked about as a potential mover after last year; finishing 15^th with 8 Wins, 14 Losses and a Draw, compared with our 9^th position with 12 Wins, 9 Losses and 2 Draws, on the Ladder. Their principal challenge? Performing as well away, as at home.

 

This year Adelaide are sitting fifth, one Win, but four places, behind us – Pies – 7 Wins / 2 Losses / 131.0% percentage c/f Crows – 6 Wins / 3 Losses / 128.8% percentage. This reflects their reasonable start but their Wins, so far, were not against Final’s contenders, though that definition is changing as the season progresses – compare Carlton and Essendon with a month ago. Their Losses are more illuminating – Gold Coast at the GC by 1 Point, Geelong at Adelaide Oval by 19 and Freo in Perth by 18; probably each an expected result though the closeness of the GC result was a surprise.

 

Our recent history has been a bit one-sided, but only just:

 

• 18 May 2024               Pies Win by 4 Points               MCG;
• 25 June 2023              Pies Win by 2 Points               MCG; and
• 30 April 2023               Pies Win by 1 Point                Adelaide Oval.

 

Can we please ask the team to have pity on the long-suffering Magpie Army and set up a nice, comprehensive Win without undue stress?

 

It is difficult to clearly identify their game plan because of the limited time period, so far. Certainly Adelaide are in a state of change. As such, looking too far back is not hugely useful. they miss Fyfe, out injured. See the emphasis, below, on their Midfield and key positions Back and Forward. Consider the need to tag Dawson and / or Rankine and counter tag players picking on ours.

 

Players to Watch. Based on their performance this season suggests the following players of significance:

 

• Dawson – Centre;
• Rankine – HF / Rover;
• Soligo – RR;
• Rachele – (also) RR;
• Worrell – BP;
• Peatling – (also) Rover; and
• Thilthorpe – CHF.

 

Also, keep an eye on Tex Walker up Forward. While he hasn’t scored in their Best consistently, he has the ability to change a game.

 

Us:

 

Changes?  Reversion change? I’d suggest those left out last weekend make a sudden return with the younger players, brought in last week, kept:

• Out: Schultz (concussion protocols), Frampton (managed), Hoskin-Elliott (managed) and Lipinski (managed).

• In: Pendlebury, De Goey, Maynard, Mihocek? Your views?

 

Game Plan –No changes of substance from last week. A couple of points:

• Application. Nothing is more important. Well demonstrated in our last few games. And Attitude is King.

• Taggers. Tagging roles might be useful, including an occasional hard lock-down role on their FF (or Tex Walker) and / or our Midfield winning the ball early?

• Midfield Management. Pendles guidance to the collective Midfield. C’mon De Goey, I acknowledge that you had some useful contributions previously, however nothing like the game-breaker you are capable of; you need to perform (I said that last week too when you were given a week off).

• Passing. Accuracy of passes by foot and hand much better – really good last week in challenging circumstances against a highly mobile opposition. Critical – watch the individual DE figures.

• Drive. Drive out of the Backline is a key part of our gameplan. Be prepared to cross the field, even to kick backwards to change the direction. Kick-ins are an issue – we need to have a plan that everyone knows.

• Kicking for Goal. Ball delivery needs to be to the best goal-kicking position. Be prepared to acknowledge difficult shots on goal and be willing to pass the ball inside the 50 to a better placed teammate. See below – I value GA (goal assists more highly than actual goals scored). This needs improvement – the question should be “Why didn’t you pass it rather than seeking to score the ‘impossible goal’?”.And, to get the best from your Forward ‘talls’, get them to lead to different parts of the 50; don’t compress into packs.   Want an example – watch Adelaide’s Forwards leading in their game a few weeks back.

• Tackles. A major success but still some opponents spinning out of tackles. Love the multiple tacklers. The perennial complaint: “Hold your tackles!” and be aware of who’s beside you before you ‘play-on’; and

• Umpires. Not sure what happened in the last week, again. Perhaps invite the Umpires to explain.

 

Our Aim?

 

• Be happy. Our team has been noticeably happier than most other teams (though this was not the case in Sydney). They usually smile and laugh when things work and, importantly, when they don’t. They actually look like they’re enjoying the game, that they are Winners, regardless of the actual score on the scoreboard (thank you, Coach McRae). We should follow their lead and enjoy the game from our perspective, even when things don’t work.

 

Summary? Again, this is our game to Win, if we decide that and implement our Game plan on the game.

 

Winning Selection. Collingwood to Win by 17 Points. BOG – JoshD with 31 touches, including 11 Clearances. Goal kickers include Elliott, Mihocek and Hill each with two goals. Other notable prediction: Maynard reported for hit on player tagging NickD (and the tagging ceased). Well done to all.

 

TV: No FTA; rely on Kayo and Fox Footy.

 

Weather: A dry day is forecast. While no rain is forecast on that day there is light rain forecast earlier that week. Noting the amount of slip sliding at the Geelong game, I’m tempted to recognise it is likely always to be slippery. Get rid of the plastic-soled boots.

 

Ground Reports? Reports please (after or before)? I’d especially like to hear from the armchair warriors watching from afar?

 

Other:

• VFL –After a serious Win over the Northern Bullants by 75 Points – go towww.afl.com.au/vfl/matches/7336#player-stats to review Pie player statistics. Next – Round 8 – Saturday, 17 May 2025 – Collingwood versus GWS at Vic Park; bounce at 10.05am. If you go,Reports please? I want to know how some of our potential ‘fill-ins’ to the AFL side are going? Looking forward to another good Win, guys;
• VFLW team – another close Loss to Darebin by 3 Points. Go towww.afl.com.au/vflw/matches/7480#player-statsto have a look at the Ladies’ numbers. Next game is Round 5 against the Box Hill Hawks (currently sitting 2^nd on the Ladder, compared with our 8^th) on Saturday, 17 May at 2.05pm, also at Vic Park. Catch both and then wander over to the G for that game.
• Do you favour the return of a State of Origin series? Why?
• Anything else, everyone else?

 

Next:

 

• Round 11                    Saturday, 24 May 2025 – North Melbourne versus Collingwood at Marvel;  bounce at 7.35pm.

 

This is our year. Always believe; never, ever give up! Go Pies.

 

Cam

 

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