Cam Hooke’s Collingwood Life 2025: Round 4 Review / Round 5 Preview

 

G’day True Believers.

 

Better; just not Best, yet.

 

 

Round 4

 

Collingwood 8.15.63 defeated Carlton 6.10.46

 

Commentators referred to this as a “Magpies’ masterclass”. I think this is overstated.

 

With Carlton’s 4 / 0 Loss, Cripps claimed Carlton “can turn it around”, that “the season is not over”. A quick look at recent history provides the evidence of this – Hawthorn went from a 5 / 0 start to last year to the second week of the Finals and the eventual Premier, Brisbane, started their season with 3 Losses.

 

There is a long way to go.

 

Match Report. www.afl.com.au/afl/matches/6991#match-report.

 

Coach’s comments. www.afl.com.au/video/1292218/mcrae-post-match-r4-well-keep-banking-on-our-experience?videoId=1292218&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1743685196001&references=AFL_MATCH:6991. He makes some interesting points regarding the blustery wet conditions. He addressed the ‘age versus experience’ debate identifying that it is the players who make decisions on the ground during the game. Experience guides those decisions. He noted that the senior players assist decisions even during training.

 

Goals’ scored:

 

Q1:      3 (us) / 3 (them).         They established a 3 goals to nil halfway through Q1 (yes, I was a little concerned); then we recovered. Deficit at the first change – 3 Points;

Q2:      0 / 1.                            Broadly level – we scored 5 Behinds; they scored 1 goal. Deficit at HT – 4 Points;

Q3:      4 / 0.                            And the boys ripped the game apart. We dominated. Lead at the final change – 25 Points;

Q4:      1 / 2.                            The end? We Won by 17 Points; and

Total:   8 / 6.                            Margin – 17 Points.

 

Game Statistics

 

Some numbers to seek to identify where there was a substantial difference and how this impacted on the game:

 

Statistic	Numbers (us / them)	Comments
Hit Outs (HO)	43 / 38	A pretty irrelevant number, scored on the basis of who touches the ball first; doesn’t matter where it goes, that is ‘HO to advantage’, better assessed as Clearances.
Clearances	47 / 38	Centre clearances –  8 / 7; and Stoppage clearances – 39 / 31. To make any sense, the HO differential should be reflected in the Clearances, close as they are here. These numbers match my perception of the game – both sides worked hard, though they took the equivalence out of the Centre; we were much better at the stoppages, particularly keeping the ball in our 50. They scored ‘suddenly’ in a rapid flow direct towards their goal – we were occasionally caught napping.
Inside 50s	57 / 44	The next step in the heading to Goal, should broadly reflecting the Clearances. The gap here does, broadly, reflect those. This, with Disposal Efficiency (see next), gives us the match winning difference.
Disposal Efficiency (DE)	65.3% / 65.2%	Across the whole game – pretty close.
DE Inside 50	45.6% / 38.6%	This, with Inside 50s numbers, is the ‘game winner’ (same as last game but lower % by each side). Clearly, with a very clear advantage in both statistics, our scoring success should reflect this. Again, we missed quite a lot of relatively straight-forward scoring opportunities. Carlton’s numbers were frequently a consequence of our ‘mistakes’, not their success. We could have Won by much more without changing the game statistics here.
Goals scored	8 / 6	The ultimate achievement. They scored two goals total in the 2nd Half. Their last 2 goals in Q4 gave some respectability to their performance, nothing more,
Scoring shots	23 / 16	The difference here is critical. While difficult conditions prevailed, these conditions applied to both teams. It was this difference, along with maintaining the ball in our attacking zone for extended periods, that set up a feeling of the Win being inevitable.
Player numbers with DE > 80%	5 / 2	Linked with DE throughout the game. The emphasis on efficient players contributed.
Free Kicks	15 / 24	Maybe trying to compensate for our last game? Inconsistencies remained relating to incorrect disposal / caught with the ball / etc . I thought the umpiring, however, was better. I have no idea where these numbers came from. Certainly, there was no implication of favoritism against us during the game.
Contested Possession (CP)	142 / 147	Combined, the difference in the two aspects reflects the team style of play. Each team sought to dominate the game, holding onto the ball. There were substantial periods when the ball was locked in our attacking half.
Uncontested Possession (UCP)	204 / 210
Possession	43% / 36%	Across game. Q4 – 36% / 41%. Final 10 minutes – 17% / 35%.
Turn-overs (TO)	57 / 65	One they Won, to little effect. I think the willingness to take risks is part of this, for both sides. Certainly their play in the 1st Half was much more confident than the 2nd.
Marks	68 / 93	Won by them, but reflecting their short-pass movement of the ball – a la ‘keep’ens off’. Marks inside 50 – 10 / 4.
Tackles	85 / 69	Not too different. Our team was here to play. The multiple tacklers was impressive. Tackles inside 50 – 18 / 11.
1%’ers	53 / 31	Spoils and defensive actions. I haven’t gone back to add up the numbers, but this difference is, again, reflecting the domination of effort.

 

Crowd: 82,058. Good.

 

Best:

 

The AFL website identifies Collingwood’s Best as:

 

• Cameron,
• Schultz,
• Sidey,
• JDaicos,
• NDaicos,
• Moore, and
• Pendles.

 

I don’t disagree with the selections. I’d probably change the order a bit, like Schultz being awarded BOG anyway.

 

Other? Without getting too carried away, I want to consider two separate issues:

 

• Frampton on Curnow. Remember I suggested Frampton as the hard lock-down player on Curnow in my last email. Various commentators were highly critical that Moore hadn’t been given the role. So, how did he do?

 

Statistic	Disposals	DE	Effective Disposals	Tackles	Clearances	Metres Gained	Intercept Poss.	Goals	Goal Assist	Score involve.	Frees	Time on ground
Frampton	9	88.9%	8.0	1	0	114	7	0	0	3	-2	96%
Curnow	8	37.5%	3.0	0	0	264	0	1	0	2	+- 1	95%

 

So, an interesting comparison, particularly given the various on / off roles of the various dynamic defenders. However, given the match-winning potential of Curnow, I think Frampton did a pretty good job. Your views?

 

• The effect of Ned Long on NickD’s performance – remember I raised this (actually someone else raised it) in my previous game email. In essence the article identified Ned Long’s game play as allowing NickD to shift from ‘ball gatherer’ to ‘ball-user’. Did this happen? Ned’s numbers are pretty impressive for one Quarter – 6 Disposals @ 66.7%, 4 Tackles, 74 mG. But what did Nick’s numbers look like in Q4 compared with his game total?

 

Statistic	Disposals	DE	Effective Disposals	Contested poss.	Uncontest. Poss.	Marks	Tackles	Score involve.	Metres gained	Clearances
Game total	27	55.6%	15.0	13	15	1	4	4	398	6
Q4 total	8	63.0%	5.0	4	5	1	1	1	121	2

 

Another interesting set of numbers. The question is whether the Q4 numbers, when Long played, are higher than the anticipated average? To be totally accurate about this you’d have to do the same for each Quarter and then apply the judgements to the result taking account of a whole bunch of things. I don’t have the time to do that so this is a first-order suggestion. Importantly (and notably) his Effective Disposals, based on a much higher DE, are significantly higher, perhaps reflecting a shift in the Uncontested Possessions. His mG has also risen. The answer? Yes, Long’s presence did facilitate NickD’s performance. I suggest he not be subbed again. He deserves his spot and the team benefits. Your views?

 

Summary:

 

In some ways this was a disappointing game. Collingwood really only cut loose in Q3 showing what they could do. The rest of the game was, essentially, even with some extra motivation towards the end of Q4. We need to commit for the whole four Quarters. We were, by far, the better team but, as per the previous week against Footscray, we could Lose by accident given the speed of scoring in today’s games. The scoring shot difference highlights our domination, as did the extended periods when we kept the ball in our attacking 50. There was, however, a greater reliance on ‘up and under’ kicks into the 50 to packs. While there was a degree of success amongst the ‘talls’ and amongst the others once the ball was on the ground, we still need to set up the better placed goal kickers to do better.

 

I thought the inclusion of Frampton in the lock-down role on Curnow was a success, but Cox was missed, not only as a relieving Ruck, but as a forward target. It was noticeable that Harry McKay was missing from the Carlton side. I think this had an effect on Cox’s exclusion.

 

I keep expecting De Goey to cut loose. His resting for Q4 makes sense in terms of his progressive return from injury. This highlights the need and expectation to manage our List, particularly given the depth of their ‘experience’ (and ‘age’). But, I also expect Long to have a run-on place for the reasons above.

 

It was great to do better than last year’s initial games, though there is a long way to go to September. Keep up the good work.

 

 

Round 5

 

Friday, 11 April 2025 – Collingwood versus Sydney at Adelaide Oval; bounce at 7.40pm (AEST).

 

Betting:

 

• 4 April           $1.56 (Pies to Win) / $2.45 (Swans to Win);

 

Them:

 

Sydney have had a pretty ordinary start to the season losing to Hawthorn and Brisbane, but are in the Eight following their hiding of North yesterday. They are sitting 8^th with a percentage of 114.7% against our 5^th with 123.4%.

 

Most recent. Our most recent matches have produced the following:

 

• 9 September 2024      Win by Sydney at the SCG by 3 Points noting that Sydney scored the last five goals from a 27 Point deficit early in Q4. We all remember that one; we should have Won;
• 15 March 2024            Win by Sydney by 33 Points at the MCG; and
• 7 May 2023                 Win by Collingwood by 29 Points at the MCG.

 

They come into this game following a narrow Win over Freo, a Bye and a huge Win over North. They will be motivated.

 

Sydney have a mixed bag of results in Adelaide including one Win and one Loss last year. What is, however, more significant is that they do not have a home ground advantage.

 

Players to Watch. Based on their performance from their Bye last year (including their three Finals games) , their practice match and their games this Season, suggests the following players of significance:

 

• Grundy – Ruck. Has produced better results lately compared with last year;
• Rowbottom – Rover / Centre;
• Warner – Centre / RR;
• Heeney – RR / HF;
• Roberts – HB;
• Gulden – RR / Wing. Likely unavailable due to injuries; and
• Blakey – BP / CHB.

 

Taylor Adams is also injured and unavailable.

 

See the emphasis, above, on their Midfield plus a couple of defenders so Win the Midfield battle, Win the War.

 

Us:

 

Changes? Suspect there will be a need to replace Houston. Cox return? Bring Long into run-on side. Lipinski sub?

 

Game Plan – adjusted from previous weeks. Let’s be honest, we didn’t dominate as we should have.  Carlton didn’t deserve to Win, but we could have Lost with a short exchange and a few straight kicks. And think about the Magpie Army, humble supporters. We appreciate the effort of the players but would prefer that we have less pressure on us through more pronounced Wins, particularly against our highly valued opponents, like Carlton and Sydney,  As such, we will need to play to our strengths, establish and implement our Game Plan. A couple of points:

 

• Application. Nothing is more important. Well demonstrated in our last few games. And Attitude is King.

• Taggers. Tagging roles?

• Midfield Management. Pendles guidance to the collective Midfield. C’mon De Goey, you need to perform. Note previous week’s comments regarding the value of Long in the midfield releasing NDaicos to be better used as a “ball-using Nick” rather than a ball-winning Nick”.

• Passing. Accuracy of passes by foot and hand. Critical – watch the individual DE figures.

• Drive. Drive out of the Backline is a key part of our gameplan. Be prepared to cross the field, even to kick backwards to change the direction. A minor point that has brought us undone on occasion, – “yes”, to ‘play on’, but know where your opponents are, particularly in front of goal. Kick-ins are an issue. Go to www.afl.com.au/news/1130107/mission-impossible-the-art-and-science-of-kick-ins. If you need help, get ‘Neon Leon Davis to help; in my view the best kicker-in we’ve had.

• Kicking for Goal. Ball delivery to the best goal-kicking position. Be prepared to acknowledge difficult shots on goal and willing to pass the ball inside the 50 to a better placed teammate. I value GA (goal assists more highly than actual goals scored). This needs improvement – the question should be “Why didn’t you pass it rather than seeking to score the ‘impossible goal’?”. And, to get the best from your Forward ‘talls’, get them to lead to different parts of the 50; don’t compress into packs.

• Tackles. A major success recently. Love the multiple tacklers. The perennial complaint: “Hold your tackles!” and be aware of who’s beside you before you ‘play-on’; and

• Umpires. Not sure what happened in our last game. Perhaps invite the Umpires to explain.

 

Our Aim?

 

• Be happy. Our team has been noticeably happier than most other teams (though this was not the case in Sydney). They usually smile and laugh when things work and, importantly, when they don’t. They actually look like they’re enjoying the game. We should follow their lead and enjoy the game from our perspective, even when things don’t work.

 

Summary? This is our game to Win, if we decide that and implement our Game plan on the game. We seriously owe Sydney for our previous game. Your views?

 

Winning Selection. Collingwood to Win by 23 Points. BOG – De Goey with 30 Disposals, including 11 Clearances. Goal kickers include Mihocek, Membrey and McStay (Forward line named – the three-headed monster?) each with two goals. Hill and Elliott each had two GA.

 

TV: FTA on 7 and 7+, plus the usual.

 

Weather: Cloudy with chance of some light rain. Get rid of the plastic-soled boots.

 

Ground Reports? Now we’ve all had nearly two weeks off, so are feeling refreshed and highly motivated, so get into it and tell us how you are feeling about this game? Reports please (after or before)? I’d especially like to hear from the armchair warriors watching from afar?  More please.

 

Other:

 

• VFL – 6 April – Collingwood versus Coburg at Piranha Park, Coburg; bounce at 1.05pm.  After their fabulous R1 Win, it the chance to watch some of our ‘up and comers’ in action. If you go, Report please?
• Anything else, people?
• Hey. I just watched the GC Suns beat the Adelaide Crows by a single Point. Both sides ran terrific connected ball movement forward. Both never gave up. Witts (46 HO, 15 Disposals, 5 Clearances, 3 Tackles) and Noble (playing off HB, 20 Disposals, 5 Tackles, 326 mG), to pick our boys with Collingwood history, did well. A challenge? A number of umpire decisions close to the finish had a major effect on the outcome – Adelaide supporters will be feeling hard done by.

 

Next:

 

Round 6 – Thursday, 17 April 2025 – Brisbane versus Collingwood at the Gabba; bounce at 7.30pm.

 

This is our year. Always believe; never, ever give up! Go Pies.

 

Cam

 

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