Cam Hooke’s Collingwood Life 2025: Round 4 Preview

 

Okay, the other half of my usual email given our Bye.

 

G’day everyone.

 

A better start to the season compared with last year, but a caution – we were 0 / 3 last year (like a few teams, now) and just missed the Finals by a whisker. I still believe we could have done some serious damage to the competition if we’d made that step. Then what would the pundits have been saying? Certainly, don’t write off the Season because of 3 Losses. See more on this below regarding our next challenge.

 

Round 4

 

Thursday, 3 April 2025 – Collingwood versus Carlton at the MCG; bounce at 7.30pm. The Olde enemy. Don’t need to say anything more.

 

Betting:

 

• 26 March         $1.54 (Pies to Win) / $2.50 (Blues to Win) – before their Loss to Bulldogs; and
• 31 March         $1.47 / $2.71 – after their R3 game.

 

Them:

 

As mentioned above, three Losses should not be seen as writing off a Season, see our 2024. Carlton have three Losses against Richmond (by 13 Points), Hawthorn (by 20) and the Bulldogs (by 8) but in each of these games they were highly competitive for most of the game. In the R1 game they led for the bulk of three quarters, the teams were level at the final change. Richmond scored 4 goals to 1 in Q4. Against Hawthorn, a seriously up and down competition, they led at HT; subsequently Hawthorn scored 4 goals to 2 and 3 to none in Q3 and Q4. Their most recent game, against a team we met only two weeks ago, Carlton led to mid-way through Q4. Their lead at HT was 18 Points. WB scored the last goals and Won. What do these game indicate? Well, there is pretty clearly a drop-off in pressure late in each game but, more importantly, there is a pretty obvious capability equivalence between Carlton and their oppositions. We should note this and not rely on a drop-off in intensity given the high profile of our matches. They’ve actually Lost 10 of their last 12 games, ignoring the holiday in between. People are starting to question their Game Plan and coaching.

 

Most recent. Out most recent matches have produced the following:

 

• 3 August 2024 Win by Pies by 3 Points;
• 3 May 2024     Win by Pies by 6 Points; and
• 28 July 2023    Win by Carlton by 17 Points. Some interesting statistics – regardless of this result we had significantly greater scoring shot numbers than they did. In the other games, particularly the most recent, the reverse applied – we had 24 scoring shots to their 26.

 

It is difficult to clearly identify their game plan because of the differences identified above. Listen / watch their coach talking to the team following their Loss to Hawthorn – go to www.carltonfc.com.au/video/1736433/afl-r2-voss-raw-address?videoId=1736433&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1742538065001. Or more recently, following the Loss to WB, at www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2025-michael-voss-press-conference-carlton-v-western-bulldogs-round-3-blues-fatal-flaw-explained-by-coach/news-story/f9fbab1269de2470a17cc64ca45e64a5. See the emphasis, below, on their Midfield and several key positions Back and Forward, so Win the Midfield battle, Win the War.

 

Players to Watch. Based on their performance from their Bye last year (including their solitary Finals game) , their practice match and their games this Season, suggests the following players of significance:

 

• Cripps Centre – Critical to Clearances; warrants a tag – Sidey? Team Captain;
• Hewett – Rover. Subject of Coaches’ votes;
• Newman – HB;
• De Koning – Ruck. Also subject of Coaches’ votes;
• Weitering – FB, Has been hugely influential lately;
• Walsh – RR;
• Curnow – FF. Key – warrants a close defender, Frampton?  and
• McKay – FP. If playing. He has been absent for a number of weeks for “personal reasons’. – not sure what that means.

 

Us:

 

Changes? No change? Thought Cox’s inclusion last week was very useful.

 

Game Plan – adjusted from previous weeks. Let’s be honest, we were lucky to Win against Footscray. They didn’t deserve to Win, but we could have Lost with a single kick. I appreciate the effort but would prefer that we, humble supporters, have less pressure on us through more pronounced Wins, particularly against our highly valued opponents, like Carlton. They have been performing well for much of their recent games but have dropped-off at the end, as described above. As such, we will need to play to our strengths, establish and implement our Game Plan. A couple of points:

 

• Application. Nothing is more important. Well demonstrated in our last two games. And Attitude is King.

• Taggers. Tagging role on Cripps for Sidey; Frampton – hard lock-down role on Curnow?

• Midfield Management. Pendles guidance to the collective Midfield. C’mon De Goey, you need to perform. Note previous week’s comments regarding the value of Long in the midfield releasing NDaicos to be better used as a “ball-using Nick” rather than a ball-winning Nick”.

• Passing. Accuracy of passes by foot and hand. Critical – watch the individual DE figures.

• Drive. Drive out of the Backline is a key part of our gameplan. Be prepared to cross the field, even to kick backwards to change the direction. A minor point that has brought us undone on occasion, – “yes”, to ‘play on’, but know where your opponents are, particularly in front of goal. Kick-ins are an issue. Go to www.afl.com.au/news/1130107/mission-impossible-the-art-and-science-of-kick-ins. If you need help, get ‘Neon Leon Davis to help; in my view the best kicker-in we’ve had.

• Kicking for Goal. Ball delivery to the best goal-kicking position. Be prepared to acknowledge difficult shots on goal and willing to pass the ball inside the 50 to a better placed teammate. See below- I value GA (goal assists mor highly than actual goals scored). This needs improvement – the question should be “Why didn’t you pass it rather than seeking to score the ‘impossible goal’?”. And, to get the best from your Forward ‘talls’, get them to lead to different parts of the 50; don’t compress into packs. Want an example – watch Adelaide’s Forwards leading in their game last weekend.

• Tackles. A major success recently. Love the multiple tacklers. The perennial complaint: “Hold your tackles!” and be aware of who’s beside you before you ‘play-on’; and

• Umpires. Not sure what happened last week. Perhaps invite the Umpires to explain.

 

Our Aim?

 

• Be happy. Our team has been noticeably happier than most other teams (though this was not the case in Sydney). They usually smile and laugh when things work and, importantly, when they don’t. They actually look like they’re enjoying the game. We should follow their lead and enjoy the game from our perspective, even when things don’t work.

Summary? This is our game to Win, if we decide that and implement our Game plan on the game.

 

Winning Selection. Collingwood to Win by 19 Points. BOG – De Goey with 31 Disposals, including 12 Clearances. Goal kickers include Mihocek, Hill, Elliott, Membrey and McStay each with two goals. Hill and McStay each had two GA, as well.

 

TV: FTA on 7mate and 7+ plus the usual.

 

Weather: Cloudy with chance of some light rain. Get rid of the plastic-soled boots.

 

Ground Reports? Now we’ve all had nearly two weeks off, so are feeling refreshed and highly motivated, so get into it and tell us how you are feeling about this game? Reports please (after or before)? I’d especially like to hear from the armchair warriors watching from afar?  More please.

 

Other:

 

• VFL – 6 April – Collingwood versus Coburg at Piranha Park, Coburg; bounce at 1.05pm.  After their fabulous R1 Win, it the chance to watch some of our ‘up and comers’ in action. If you go, Report please?
• Anything else, people?

 

Next:

• Friday, 11 April 2025 – Collingwood versus Sydney at Adelaide Oval, part of the ‘Gather Round’; bounce at 7.40pm AEST.

 

This is our year. Always believe; never, ever give up! Go Pies.

 

Cam

 

 

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