Cam Hooke’s Collingwood Life 2025: OR Review / Rd 1 Preview

G’day all; Pies’ supporters. What an introduction to Season 25?

 

Well, with the feedback from Ian (wiiwif) and Matthew it is almost not required for me to say anything. But I will anyway. Also watching from the stands yesterday, amongst quite a lot of Giants’ supporters, I was also disappointed. Actually, I was quite concerned. I totally agree the comments made, particularly that we appeared to be slow, were playing without a game plan and, critically, we gave up in Q4. I had to watch the replay on Kayo because I, simply, didn’t understand many of the Umps’ decisions. More on this later.

 

But, as already stated, there is next week, and every week thereafter for a while.

 

Firstly, my thanks to those of us who got together at The Brewery before the game for a drink and a bite to eat. We really enjoyed that. I think that’s it for Sydney this Season unless Sydney or GWS get a home Final. Possible? Sure is. But that would require us to be in the Eight, which after yesterday appears highly unlikely. We have a few games coming against young, enthusiastic teams. Watch this space – Hawthorn, Richmond, others?

 

Opening Round

 

Collingwood 6.16.52 Lost to GWS 15.14.104. Were they twice as good as us? Sure were.

 

Goals scored:

 

Q1                   1 (us) / 5 (them). A pretty fair start by them;

Q2                   3 / 3. Equivalence over Q2 and Q3 without establishing any real confidence in the final outcome;

Q3                   0 / 1. There was still the remnants of optimism at the end of Q3, but it would have required a totally different style and attitude;

Q4                   2 / 6. No, they didn’t slow down or look tired. We did. To be quite frank, we looked like we’d given up. That is really frightening; and

Totals:             6 / 15.

 

Statistics

 

I’m going to run through some numbers to seek to identify where there was a substantial difference and how this impacted on the game:

 

Statistic	Numbers (us / them)	Comments
Disposals	352 / 364	I normally ignore this number, but in this game I thought they’d be way in front of us. They played the close-in ball passage we pride ourselves on, with a total commitment and competence. Their short kicks were far more accurate than ours by a long way – see DE, below.
Hit Outs (HO)	47 / 23	A pretty irrelevant number, scored on the basis of who touches the ball first; doesn’t matter where it goes, that is HO to advantage, better assessed as Clearances. Note, also, the fact that GWS’ principal ruck, Briggs, was injured and taken off very early in the Game.
Clearances	40 / 36	Centre clearances – 12 / 8; and Stoppage clearances – 28 / 28. To make any sense, the HO differential should be reflected in the Clearances, which it doesn’t. Our advantage here is minimized, nearly equal. These numbers do not match my perception of the game. My view was that we were demolished out of the Centre and their counter-attack out of their backline was, simply, outstanding.
Inside 50s	55 / 54	The next step in the heading to Goal, broadly reflecting the Clearances. Now virtually dead-even, negating any perception of an advantage to us in HO and Clearances.
Disposal Efficiency (DE)	66.8% / 76.6%	GWS moved the ball more quickly and more accurately than we did. The nearly 10% difference was a major contributor to their Win, and I’d suggest to the terminal loss of confidence amongst our team.
DE Inside 50	49.1% / 59.3%	The distinction here is the ‘game winner’. Clearly with a 10% greater chance of effectively scoring each time they got the ball inside the 50, matched between the two teams, their score skyrocketed.
Free Kicks	15 / 24	I thought the umpiring was awful. We don’t care about the rules, we just want them to be applied consistently. They weren’t. I found myself frequently wondering what the decisions were for. The simple number difference is always of concern, though the Frees to GWS in a goal-scoring position were frequent. Yes, to be fair we did have one. As an example: Greene 4 FF / 0 FA; Maynard 0 FF / 4 FA. Note also that the MRT fined Greene for two offences that, apparently, didn’t warrant a Free.
Contested Possession (CP)	139 / 118	Like the Disposals number above, this is not really that important. Combined, the difference in the two aspects reflects the team style of play. For them the UCP domination combined with the Mark numbers, below, reflected a ‘keep’ens off’ approach typified by accurate, small passes, and speed, something we seriously lacked.
Uncontested Possession (UCP)	200 / 229
Turn-overs (TO)	64 / 56	Reasonably equivalent.
Marks	87 / 93	As above re game plan,
Marks inside 50	9 / 8	Should lead to better goal-scoring.
Tackles	39 / 50	Reflects the work commitment – passion and application.
Tackles inside 50	8 / 6	As above, re goal-scoring.
1%’ers	34 / 43	Spoils and defensive actions. I haven’t gone back to add up the numbers, but this difference is, again, reflecting their domination of effort.

 

Crowd: 19,248. Give me a 87,000 MCG crowd made up of 60% Pies supporters, gives a real ring to the “Collingwooood” chant. There were, however, a few attempts.

 

Betting: I followed the game betting leading to the game, you might find interesting (or amusing):

 

• 26 February    $2.10 – Collingwood to Win / $1.77 – GWS to Win; they were Favourites;
• 27 February    $2.00 / $1.85 followed our destruction of Richmond in the Community practice match by 83 Points;
• 4 March           $1.69 / $2.17 following the GWS practice match Loss to Carlton by 58 Points. And we are now the Favourites; and
• 5 March           $1.69 / $2.18. No significant change.

 

Just goes to show how ill-informed some ‘experts’ are. Our next game could be interesting.

 

Best:

 

The AFL website identifies Collingwood’s Best as:

 

• Perryman;
• Cameron;
• JoshD;
• NickD; and
• Crisp

 

I don’t disagree with any of those identified or the order (well, not too much, anyway) but might have added a couple, though I would certainly acknowledge that performance throughout the whole game was a rarity, even amongst the listed Best. With key achievements identified, I would add:

 

• Quaynor – 6 Inside 50s, 4 Intercept Possessions (IP) and 422 M gained (mG); and
• Pendles – 19 Disposals, 4 Marks, 1 Tackle and 4 Clearances.

 

Darcy, Billy Elliott and McCreery also each had periods where they contributed.

 

At our previous OR game meeting with GWS I recorded the Numbers for Greene and Maynard. You decide which player dominated?

 

• Greene:           18 Disposals @ 66.7% DE (Do the sums; it is illustrative), 2 Tackles, 5 Marks, 3 Clearances, 0 Goal Assists,  303 mG and 1 Goal; compared with
• Maynard:         15 Disposals @ 93.3% DE, 1 Tackle, 6 Marks, 0 Clearances, 1 Goal Assist, 355mG but no Goals.

 

The Good, the Bad and the downright Ugly

 

Ugly, first. We looked like we gave up after their first goal in Q4. Commitment and pressure, in both Winning circumstances and when Losing is a foundation requirement. Other – Is NickD injured?

 

Good. There were several occasions when the team linked magnificently from the backline to the Goal. Pity it happened so rarely and that GWS did the same so well and so frequently.

 

Bad. We need to get the umpires over to explain why we were so penalized. It can’t be allowed to continue in that fashion. We need to speed up our ball disposal – the delay in moving the ball out of the Backline was quite extraordinary.

 

See below regarding recommended actions under our next game.

 

Not a lot of fun, particularly with a 7 – hour round trip.

 

Round 1

 

Saturday, 15^th March Collingwood versus Port Adelaide on the MCG; bounce at 7.35pm.

 

Them

 

Port finished second on the Ladder at Season’s end after Round 24 last year. In the second half of the Season, after their R13 Bye, they achieved 8 Wins, including a stretch of five successive Wins leading straight up to the Finals. They Lost the Finals FW1 game but Won the Semi-Final before Losing the Preliminary Final. But we have managed to beat them at each of our most recent games (20 April 2024, 22 July 2023 and 25 March 2023) which included in the July 2023 game 11 lead changes and a final margin of 2 Points. That game is also famous for Jamie Elliott’s boundary goal with 3 minutes left. So, they are a team to be respected. As always, if we set the game we will Win. If we allow them to decide how the game is to be played we will suffer.

 

Based on performances since their Round 13 Bye last year, their most recent games against us (listed above) and their most recent Community practice match (noting the difference between our practice match and last weekend) players to watch are:

 

• Rozee – Rover;
• Sweet – Ruck;
• Horne-Francis – RR / HF;
• Georgiades – FP; and
• Wines – Centre (Captain).

Also watch Richards for Collingwood family reasons. We wish him well, up to a point.

 

Butters, their key coordinating Back is injured for some time. Both Allir Allir and Ratugolea are under an injury cloud, but I value each of them.

 

Notable is the focus on their midfield players. The solution, as always, Win the Midfield, Win the Game.

 

Of course calculating those recording in the past as Best players included Houston in the Port team who, of course, will be on the field but in a different jumper. Go Pies.

 

Us

 

Back on the MCG, thankfully. We have the personnel, the experience and the game plan to beat every other team. I hope the Magpie Army turns out in force for the first MCG game.

 

Selections:

 

Add:

 

• Houston, of course;
• De Goey, also of course; and.
• Cox.

 

In place of:

 

• Hoskin-Elliott – replace Long as sub;
• Howe – manage;
• Allan – replace; and
• Long – replace.

 

The team need to be very clear that the suggested team is the best possible, but future selections will be based on performance and application over the whole game.

 

Game Plan – adjusted from last week?

 

• Application. Nothing is more important. Pick those prepared to ‘have a go’. Measure application through Tackles and Contested Possessions

• Taggers. Tagging role for Sidey; Frampton – hard lock-down role.

• Midfield Management. Pendles guidance to the collective Midfield.

• Rucks. I’ve spent much time over the last few seasons questioning Cox and Cameron’s role in the ruck. Cox is a terrific Forward target and Cameron made the All-Australian squad, unlucky not to take the next step. My view has been that neither are traditional rucks. That said, not too many of the other teams have a traditional ruck. We need to check the new talls and seek to develop those recruited into the ruck role, playing in the Twos.

• Passing. Accuracy of passes by foot and hand.

• Drive. Drive out of the Backline is a key part of our gameplan. Be prepared to cross the field, even to kick backwards to change the direction. A minor point – “yes”, to ‘play on’, but know where your opponents are, particularly in front of goal.

• Kicking for Goal. Ball delivery to the best goal-kicking position. Be prepared to acknowledge difficult shots on goal and willing to pass the ball inside the 50 to a better placed teammate. See below- I value GA (goal assists mor highly than actual goals scored. The game against Richmond – unbelievable accuracy;

• Tackles. A perennial complaint: “Hold your tackles!”; and

• Umpires. Get the umpires to the Club to explain what happened in the GWS game.

 

Betting: We are Favourites – $1.58 for a Pies’ Win; $2.39 for a PA Win adjusted today to $1.60 / $2.34. To say I’m surprised by the absence of any substantial movement would be an understatement. I think this will be a seriously tough game, regardless of my usually optimistic (and rarely accurate) Winner’s pick, below.

 

Our Aim?

 

Be happy. Our team has been noticeably happier than most other teams, though this was not the case in Sydney. They usually smile and laugh when things work and, importantly, when they don’t. They actually look like they’re enjoying the game. We should follow their lead and enjoy the game from our perspective, even when things don’t work. Last week was somewhat tiresome being stuck in the midst of a pile of Giants’ supporters, though there were some good ones, particularly when everyone thought everyone’s favourite player, our NickD, was injured.

 

Weather? Forecast for Melbourne is for possible light showers. Let that sway decisions by players to wear traditional boots with stops rather than plastic, moulded sole boots.

 

TV? No FTA Go to Kayo or head to your pub or Club.

 

Winner’s pick?

 

• Pies by 17 Points. BOG – De Goey with 31 Disposals, closely followed by Houston, hugely dominating in the Backline. Important up Forward was Hill with 4 Goal Assists, followed by Mihocek with 3 Goals.

Ground Reports? I know some of you are going; others? Reports please? But if you aren’t going to be there, I’d especially like to hear from the armchair warriors watching from afar?  More please.

 

Next?

 

Friday, 21^st March: Western Bulldogs versus Collingwood at the MCG; bounce at 7.40pm.

 

 

Other:

• Did you see Eddie’s ‘other’ boy getting a mention as a TV commentator, particularly moving to Channel 7 this year and as co-host of The round so far on the AFL website?
• Anything else?

 

See ya,

 

This is our year. Always believe; never, ever give up! Go Pies.

 

Cam

 

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