Cam Hooke’s Collingwood Life 2024: Round 22 Review / Round 23 Preview

True Believers, that was not a lot of fun. 

 

This was an excellent performance by the 11^th placed team on the Ladder against the team on the top of the Ladder. At least it was up to shortly after the start of the final Quarter. Then the “wheels fell off” and we sacrificed a 27-Point lead to Lose by 3. 

 

Remember what I said last week? “The lesson from both games (plus our most recent disaster against Sydney): How do you implement a recovery like Carlton and GWS implemented? And, how do you stop it?” Haven’t seen any evidence of thought and action to counter this. 

 

Maybe some humour? There is the suggestion that a conspiracy involving the AFL, implemented by the umpires, is happening. Go to www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2024-conspiracy-theory-about-collingwood-magpies-lategame-tactics-umpires-might-be-onto-them-first-crack-analysis-latest-news/news-story/e4fd57c92f8e9a7c933e3fb4bab5d4c4 . 

 

Can we make the Finals? I don’t know. I know that you can still bet on the Premiership outcome, so I presume so. But I do believe we need to Win the next two games and for some other teams to Lose. Wait and see. 

 

But, as always,  

 

Go Pies.  

   

 

Round 21 

 

Collingwood 12.14.86 were defeated by Sydney 13.11.89.  

Scoring shots 26 (us) / 24 (them).  

Possession percentage: 42% (us) / 37% (them).  

   

Match Report. www.afl.com.au/afl/matches/6083 

 

Coach’s interview. www.afl.com.au/video/1191475/full-post-match-r22-magpies?videoId=1191475&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1723211177001. Worth listening to. He addresses the differences in “chasing a lead” compared with “holding a lead”, skates over some criticism of the umpires (see my comments above, below and at www.news.com.au/sport/afl/bit-of-a-circus-pies-coach-afl-world-furious-amid-late-umpiring-drama-in-thriller/news-story/b1bb1b55353f49525899e648615fd432 ) and addressed the distinction of “Losing behaviour” specifically including “blame”. 

 

Goals:  

·         Q1        5 (us) / 3 (them) – After an early start by Sydney we responded with 5 goals to 1, resulting in a 13-Point lead at the first break; 

·         Q2      1 / 3 –   Dominance by Sydney reduced the game to a 3-Point lead at Half Time;  

·         Q3        5 / 2 – More convincing dominance by us leading to a 21-Point lead at the final change; and  

·         Q4      1 / 5 – With our first goal of Q4, we had a 27-Point lead. Again (see the previous week), a significant shut-down (by us) – Q4 scores were 1.2.8 (us) / 5.0.30 (them). And the final result? 

·         Total:   12 / 13; a Loss by 3-Points.  

  

Numbers (some statistics taken, with comments). I’m just going to address a couple of statistics today. It was patently obvious that the Pies were in charge over the first three Q, even allowing for a reduction in the margin through Q2, but Q4 was different.  

 

·         Disposals. A very rare occurrence, our Disposals were more than our opponents – 337 (us) / 321 (them), but in the critical 2H, our Disposals were +36 (Q3) and – 28 (Q4). Interestingly (I think) the Handballs contributing to the Disposals were 120 / 128, a result contrary to our expectation and our strength; 

 

·         Clearances. 43 / 46 made up of Centre clearances – 11 / 15 and stoppage clearances – 32 / 31. A minor deficiency not translated into the Inside 50 numbers; 

 

·         Inside 50. 49 / 49. Brought back to even; 

 

·         Goals scored. 12 / 13. These numbers include Sydney’s scoring of the last five goals of the match, so before that started…; 

 

·         Disposal Effectiveness inside 50. 59.2% / 51.0%. So we had the same number of Inside 50s but used it significantly better. We should have scored more. And the following contributed: 

 

·                     Marks inside 50. 10 / 6; and  

 

·                     Tackles inside 50. 21 / 10; 

 

·         Contested possessions – 134 / 129, Turnovers – 56 / 65, Tackles – 62 / 63 and 1%’ers – 45 / 65. These numbers seem to balance each other out (a bit probably a little in their favour). Both sides worked hard; and 

 

·         Free Kicks. 15 / 26 says it all. No, it doesn’t. The seemingly frequent sequential Frees penalising Pies’ players were notable. None of us are concerned with the awarding of Frees, we simply demand that the rules be applied fairly to both sides. This was patently not the case. See the coach’s comments on the subject, particularly relating to circuses. 

  

The Game  

  

This game was what we expected for three Quarters. Again (unlike last week, without the happy ending), I’m unsure what to call Q4. We Lost Q4 and Lost the game. 

 

Statistically, as above, we had the same number of Inside 50s but used it better. I have no idea where this logic falls down. I would welcome your views? 

 

The result: The Pies are still sitting 11^th on the Ladder outside the Eight by a Win and percentage. Getting in is still a possibility – we just need to keep Winning and some other teams need to Lose. We really need two Wins and better percentage. I note that betting on winning the Premiership by us is now $251; last week it was $34, the week before $81. Might be worth a flutter. See specifics below for our next games.  

  

Best: The AFL website identifies the following as Best – Sidebottom, JoshD, Quaynor, NickD, Crisp and Cameron. Don’t disagree their inclusions but I might have added Bytel – 448 mG and 2 GA. Additionally, both Hill and McCreery contributed hugely – when involved each had a terrific impact on thge game. 

  

Injuries: Nothing new. I note Krueger had a run in the VFL side. See below. 

  .  

Crowd – 37,854. When is the AFL going to demand Sydney home games are going to be held at a larger ground? 

  

 

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Round 23 

  

 

Saturday, 17^th August – Collingwood versus Brisbane at the MCG; bounce at 4.35pm.  

 

Brisbane are sitting 5^th on the Ladder with 54 points based on their 13 Wins, 7 Losses and i Draw. Their percentage is 122.7%. This is in comparison with our 11^th position based on 44 points from 10 Wins, 9 Losses and 2 Draws. Our percentage is 100.1%.  

 

Brisbane had a pretty awful start to the Season with only Wins against North and Melbourne amongst their first seven Rounds. More recently they’ve put together nine Wins out of their last ten games. Most recently, R22, they Lost to GWS at the Gabba by 18 Points. So, they come into this game based on a single Loss preceded by a series of Wins; not too different to us. 

 

Current betting is $1.60 / $2.35. Just to clarify, Brisbane are favourites even at the G, but, interestingly, not by much.  

  

Them  

 

Brisbane are a very good team, perhaps seen to have been running a bit under the horizon this year. Certainly they have suffered a number of Losses at the Gabba this year, their home ground, previously seen as a fortress. However, particularly more recently, their Wins have not been limited to this ground. 

 

The list of Players to Watch, below, indicates a reliance on their Midfield. As always, win the Midfield battle, win the war. Plus others elsewhere. 

 

This will be our second clash with Brisbane this season. We Won that first game reasonably comprehensively. The first was Round 3 on Thursday, 28^th March. Emails before and following were sent out on 23^rd March and 1^st April respectively. If you can’t find the past emails the easiest location is the on-line ‘Footy Almanac’ website. Just type ‘Hooke’ into the search engine there. 

  

Injuries. They have a substantial list of injuries, the majority of them not key team members. 

 

Players to watch:  

 

·         Neale – RR / Rover; 

·         Zorko – Wing / BP (not a typo, presumably very flexible); 

·         McLuggage – Wing / HF; 

·         Rayner – FP; 

·         McInerny – Ruck; and 

·         Dunkley – Centre. 

 

Keep an eye on both Daniher – FF and Cameron – HF, both who have only occasionally graced their Best lists but can turn a game. Also watch Starcevich – BP / HB for Pies’ family reasons. 

   

Us  

  

Not too much needs to change from last week except some changes to replace De Goey and to accept previous injuries to return; maybe a rest or two:   

 

·                      Team?  

·                     I consider both Lipinski and Frampton might benefit from a rest;  

·                     Get Krueger and Richards (run on side) back; 

·                     Note performances at VFL level of  Allan, Macrae, Dean and DeMattia. Consider inclusion of DeMattia. 

·

Who to replace? Your thoughts?  

·                      Application? Possession of the ball lets you win the match – lose possession and you are fighting backwards. No change.  

 

·                      Game Plan? No change to the current plan. Work on kick-in plan. Work on a Plan that runs for four Quarters. Work on coordination of the Forward line and the Backline. Avoid disrupting the Backline to ease the burden on the Forwards – leave Howe there. Continue to better arrange and coordinate delivery into and across the 50 – plans. Speed up the movement out of the Backline – establish plans to execute this.  

·                      Practice talking to each other? 

·                      Practice tackling (and holding)? 

·                      Be happy? Much improved.  

  

Necessary Actions?  

 

·                      Close attention to their Midfield, particularly countering any tagging by them. Win the Midfield battle – use the measures of Clearances and Inside 50s to assess;  

·                      Close attention to their Forwards (Daniher and Cameron); and  

·                      Enjoy the Win.   

  

TV.     No free to air coverage on TV. Go to Kayo or your local pub.  

  

Weather. Light rain is forecast on the days leading to the game and on the game day. Get the old boots with stops out. 

  

My prediction.          Collingwood to Win by 17 Points.  

 

                                    BOG – NickD with 32 Disposals @ 85.4% DE, 10 Cl and 2 goals.   

                                    Richards scores 4 goals; Elliot and Hill get two each.  

  

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The Future  

·         Round 24 – Friday, 23^rd August – Melbourne versus Collingwood at the MCG; bounce at 7.40pm; and  

·         Finals. 

  

Other 

 

·         VFL. One to go. After being beaten by Sydney last weekend by 29 Points, their last game – R21 is versus Brisbane (20^th place on the Ladder (us) versus 3^rd (them)) at the AIA Centre on 17 August; bounce at 12.05pm. Anyone attending? Briefs please? Go Boys.  

 

·         VFLW. No more, ladies.  

 

·         Games. Remember for those who can’t get to the VFL / VFLW games, you can watch them live at www.afl.com.au/stream-your-team?utm_source=aflcomau&utm_medium=display&utm_campaign=state_league_streaming.  

   

Ground Reports? Now I know several of you went to the Sydney game. Reports please? I’m not sure who else went. Is anyone going to the final H & A games in the next couple of weeks? I’d like to hear from the armchair warriors watching from afar?  More please.  

  

Always believe. Never give up. Go Pies.  

Cam

 

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