Almanac Horse Racing: Melbourne Cup Preview – Did Sal give us the winner?

November 4, 2024 by Sal Ciardulli Leave a Comment

Welcome to the Melbourne Cup Edition! After a good but not great Derby Day – the main races delivered but the rest of the program was vanilla in nature. As per commentary in the preview there is a need for at least one race of 2000m or more, interesting to read a couple of responses made on the earlier piece: https://www.footyalmanac.com.au/almanac-horse-racing-sals-preview-derby-day-will-the-empire-strike/. However we are on to the main event, which sees plenty on international horses but mostly now considered local as our trainers plunder overseas staying stocks. It has made for us to be happier with local representation rather than not knowing much form of half the field, however it has destroyed the egalitarian nature of the race where small bush trainer had their chance to dream big. Not Waller and Maher having 37.5% of the field is good for the race or racing overall. They are fantastic trainers and horsemen, and it is no surprise that owners drive business to them, but with so many in their teams we can lose out. I believe we have in this race alone with Via Sistina not running. Her Cox Plate win was scintillating, she had a weight that gave her a real winning chance in the cup, but the ownership and trainer pulled the pin. She will never be as well weighted again, so highly unlikely to compete in the Cup. On the ownership, Yulong, they have plenty of other horse flesh to plunder races with and don’t have a runner here. CJW takes her out but still has another five in it. We as the public want her to be running, it is on the VRC and Racing Victoria to establish conditions to entice such runners to the race. One of the changes made this year has not worked, moving the Archer to September from Derby Day. Point King got the ticket but is not running.

The other change required is setting a minimum top weight, with Via Sistina not running also meant that our best hoop James McDonald is not riding. There were just not any options at the weight scale for JMac to get a steer with prior commitments to all the options in his weight range. With the withdrawal of most of the higher weighted horses we are left with a very compressed range of weights here 5.5kg covers them and a pretty long tail in the race. However, there is usually one of those tail members that will bob up for a place as Sheraz did last year and of Prince of Penzance.

Race 7 – The Melbourne Cup (G1, 3200m, HCP)

We have seen strong Geelong Cup winners recently go on and deliver on Melbourne Cup day and Onesmoothoperator (13) fits the bill. Looks to have thrived since arriving and has won over such a trip in a big field. If we are looking at history then Zardozi (14) has to be a great chance, has been through the classic Cummings campaign of 10,000m in the lead up and a flashing light run on Derby Day. Can’t ignore Willie Mullins and Vauban (1) who has come back after a disappointing effort in 2023, they have changed their approach this year and his form is good. Might just blow them all away, but we note that not favourite has saluted since Fiorente in 2013. The Maher team have turned Okita Soushi (12) upside down and running on the pace with excellent results, from barrier 10 Jamie Kah will have every opportunity to give him the run of the race. The best form reference for Melbourne Cup is the Caulfield Cup and there was no better trial than that of Buckaroo (2), the Magic Man will need find a spot from a wide barrier and make all the right choices. There is some question on him getting the distance but will trust CJW has that sorted. Wary of the Japanese horse Warp Speed (4) getting to a good surface, would be absurd to ignore Absurde (9) who ran well last year, the Maher pair down the bottom of the weights Interpretation (18) and St George (22) are going well. Would have rated the Bendigo Cup and Sydney Cup winners Sea King (15) and Circle of Fire (3) but for drawing the extreme inside and outside.

Selections – 13-14-1-12-2-4-9-18

Here is a look at each of the runners in this year’s race

Runner

Weight

Age Sex

Jockey

Trainer

Comments

Vauban

55.5

W Buick

W Mullins

A completely different approach from Willie Mullins this year after finishing down the track in the race last year. Recent form is sound, reckon they might have learnt plenty from last year where he loomed but faded out. Some concern on the warm weather, he melted in the yard last year not quite as hot this year. Trusting the changes will make a difference, he copes with the weather and the 3rd selection.

Buckaroo

54.5

Joao Moriera

C Waller

Has found an incredible vein of form this spring highlighted by an outstanding run in the Caulfield Cup, there is no better form reference this race. The Magic Man will need to perform some with the wide draw to go one better than last year and the horse needs to run out a strong 3200m. Trusting that CJW knows the horse well enough about the trip, would have rated higher with a better draw but still the 5th selection.

Circle of Fire

54.5

J Allen

C Maher

Strong winner of the Sydney Cup so no doubt about the distance, however runs this campaign have not been quite up to expectations. They have all been on soft ground or worse while the Sydney Cup win was on a good surface he gets that here gives him some chance but drawn the very outside so will take a very good steer from John Allen.

Warp Speed

54.5

A Sugawara

N Takagi

5th in the Tenno Sho is good form for a Melbourne Cup, however a poor run in the Caulfield Cup might not inspire confidence. The trainer always said he needed the run, had a poor barrier draw and a soft track. We know how good the Japanese stayers are on firm ground so expect a much better performance.

Kovalica

53.5

D Lane

C Waller

Another with a long gap since a win but has been running in high class races and running well. Has been a project to get him out to 3200m and could run well. CJW knows how to get them right on the day, but has not won for a while now.

Sharp ‘n Smart

53.5

M Dee

G & D Rogerson

Hasn’t had a win for some time, while he usually running in high class races would prefer to have won something. A good 3rd run in the MV Gold Cup will inspires some confidence but would prefer his conquerors as winning chances.

Just Fine

J McNeil

Waterhouse & Bott

Got the ticket by winning the Bart and a natural leader so should ensure this race race is run at a reasonable tempo. Doubt he will be good enough to hold the best ones out.

Land Legend

Z Purton

C Waller

The last horse to salute here after winning the Metropolitan was Macdougal in 1959. Land Legend is a chance to emulate him after a follow up 3rd in the Caulfield Cup. Zac Purton on board should give him every chance and certainly some chance here..

Absurde

52.5

K McEvoy

W Mullins

Hit the front in 2023 but could not see it out, suspect Willie Mullins to have addressed that and he should be able to run out the journey. A good win in the Chester last start, half kilo lass than 2023 and a jockey who knows how to win this race. Not the worst!

Athabascan

Z Lloyd

O’Shea & Charlton

Was a last start winner of the Sydney St Leger but not sure of the quality of the field he beat. Has had only one race in mind after second in the Sydney Cup. Generally more effecitive with some juice in the track, sure to be boxing on but suspect will find others better.

Knight’s Choice

51.5

R Dolan

Symons & Laxon

Had a good winter campaign in Queensland but has not brought that form south.

Okita Sushi

J Kah

C Maher

After a fair effort in last year’s race as a backmarker, the Maher team has flipped this horse to settle on the speed resulting in a terrific win in the MV Gold Cup. Lightweight gives him a chance so does the C Maher polish, he is ideally drawn and J Kah has her eye in. Could be right in this and the 4th selection.

Onesmoothoperator

C Williams

B Ellison

A smashing win in the Geelong Cup has raised comparisons with Dunaden, Americain and Media Puzzle. Certainly has the chance to emulate them and should have no problem with the distance after winning over 3300m at Newcastle. All wins prior were on synthetic, so maybe our tracks suit him, the drier the better and the top selection.

Zardozi

A Atzeni

J Cummings

GSOB’s only runner and winner of last years Oaks here. James has put her through a classic Bart preparation, ran well on Saturday in the Empire Rose and has over 10,000m in her legs this campaign including great runs in the Metropolitan and Caulfield Cup. That should have her primed for this, great test to see if the master’s plan still prevails. With a good steer from a low draw she is a great chance and the 2nd selection.

Sea King

50.5

H Doyle

H Eustace

Sea King is looking to be the first horse since 1869 to win the Bendigo-Melbourne Cup double! Then again the Bendigo Cup has been shifted around a fair bit and only recently scheduled six days before the Big One. The last two winners have run well in the race finishing in the top six. This horse won the Bendigo Race so strongly and gets in here with a lightweight and must be a chance to repeat Warrior’s effort from all those years ago. Just concerned about being locked up from the inside draw.

Valiant King

50.5

C Newitt

C Waller

Only win was in a maiden in Europe, second in a couple of handy races over there but form here is not good enough.

Fancy Man

R Stewart

Neasham & Achibald

Worked well to the line in the Caulfield Cup but never a threat, expect to find others better here but if he runs the trip out could be in the top ten.

Interpretation

T Nugent

C Maher

Sixth here last year off a Bendigo Cup win, this was a valiant 2nd in the Geelong Cup but the winner was stronger. We know he can run out the distance and promised plenty. Not without a chance and we have seen plenty of C Maher second stringers salute.

Manzoice

D Bates

C Waller

Last year’s Derby winner that needs a complete turnaround in form here.

Mostly Cloudy

K Teetan

Busuttin & Young

Has an affinity for Flemington but suspect will be outclassed here.

Positivity

W Costin

A Forsman

Does get track conditions in her favour but not sure Positivity has the form or class for this race at this stage of her career.

Saint George

T Schiller

C Maher

Recent import who went through a long layoff, has had four runs here and was good last start. Suspect the odds would be much longer if the trainer wasn’t C Maher, but if he has him in there is hope.

The Map

R King

Clarken & MacGilvray

Tamanian bred, South Australian based mare who got her ticket with a win in the Andrew Ramsden back in May after a 2nd in the Adelaide Cup. Will stay like a Mother-in-law but gets no favours from barrier 23.

Trust in You

M du Plessis

Wallace & Cooksley

Not sure we can trust the form out of the St Leger, drawn well but not up to this.

Quaddie

Always tough with the Cup as first leg and massive fields in the remaining so we will try and stay in early and hope we can survive through the remainder.

Leg 1 – 1, 2, 4, 9, 12, 13, 14, 15, 18, 22

Leg 2 – 1, 5, 7, 13

Leg 3 – 3, 4, 9

Leg 4 – 3, 12

Oaks!

A quick look at the Oaks on Thursday and hard to split the inform fillies Too Darn Discreet and Treasure Themoment. Liked the run of Inevitable Truth in the Wakeful. Liked Hurry Curry but concerned about missing the run on Saturday.

Hope all have a great day,

Go the Bart Factor!

Cheers, Sal

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