Greetings All,
The AFL are not going too badly in hogging the news cycle with Gary Pert falling on his sword at Melbourne, the rest of clubs arcing up over Chris Scott’s ‘job’ with Morris Finance and a bunch of 30-year-old players being delisted and then to be resigned as ‘rookies’. The real news though is Derby Day and the four fabulous days at Flemington coming up. While Derby Day is still a strong program with three top level races, I am not sure it can now be claimed as the best day of racing in the Australia. With the McKinnon now moved to final day and the Archer (Hotham Hcp) being run in September apart from the Derby there is a lack of endurance races on the program. The Wakeful and Derby are both over a journey but restricted to three-year-olds, there needs to be a race over at least 2000m for the older horses added to the program. That would also give trainers of cup prospects the chance of a final hit out before Tuesday which was common practice not that many years ago, this year there is only one contender running and that over only 1600m. There are only two races available for open age males and they are over only 1200 and 1400m. While the racing will be good, this program needs some rebalancing.
Nevertheless, we have a big program and the first nine of 37 races that see out the carnival! We should have a fair surface with good weather predicted for the day and in fact for the remaining of the week. Some concern if the track dries out too quickly making it difficult to make ground but that would be a nice problem for the track manager given the challenges they have had during the recent meetings here.
Race 1 – Carbine Club Stakes (G3, 1600m, 3yo SWP)
Hard not to look past Feroce (1) after second in the Guineas and looks well weighted in this company but not sure I’d be ploughing in at flip of the coin or worse. A better each way play might be with Stylish Secret (2) who beat a couple of derby contenders at this track last start. Have to respect Waller-McDonald combination so Aeliana (6) is a great chance coming of a good win in Sydney and throwing in King of Enterprise (5) who is lightly raced so interesting that the stable is having a crack at this level.
Selections – 1-2-6-5
Race 2 – The Vanity (G3, 1400m, 3yo Fillies SWP)
This is such a wide-open race with many of these looking to go on to the Thousand Guineas, no result would surprise. Making Matisse (7) top pick who gets B Shinn on board and getting blinkers first time and should be ready third up. She will have to chase down the Waterhouse-Bott filly Dominetta (6) who was not far off in the Reg Allen in Sydney. GSOB has Zeitung (5) has been around the mark and gets Zahra, might have been top pick but some concern about her record on dry ground. Then there is an undefeated Waller filly Extremely Hardys (13) who takes a step up but must trust the stable.
Selections – 7-6-5-13
Race 3 – Rising Fast Stakes (G3, 1200m, HCP)
Schwarz (6) is lightly raced but has a win down the straight, a great fresh record and JMac. Looks well placed here. Another winner down the straight is Godolphin’s Spacewalk (3) who gets the outside draw with J Kah on board. Rey Magnerio (11) just keeps on running on well, one day he will get them, and this could be the day. While Charm Stone (12) also has a win down the straight and looks well weighted here.
Selections – 6-3-11-12
Race 4 – The Damien Oliver (G2, 1400m, HCP)
Ciaran Maher has two strong chances here with Another Wil (2) and Jimmysstar (5), emotions will run high should Another Wil (2) salute following the recent death of his owner Col McKenna. Giving him a mulligan for his run in the Toorak on that track, prior form was well up to this. Rating Jimmy higher though who did manage to swamp an albeit lesser field on the same day, from which he also gets some weight relief. Not completely limited to these two Tamerlane (3) has an excellent fresh record and a win over this journey, then Mighty Ulysses (1) who killed so many quaddies on Caulfield Cup day could swamp them again here. Has a 100% record second up!
Selections – 5-2-3-1
Race 5 – Wakeful Stakes (G2, 2000m, 3YO Fillies SWP)
The Oaks lead up and John Sargent again has a strong hand with the favourite Powers of Opal (5) and the maiden Inevitable Truth (10), he is a master with staying fillies no matter the result here suspect he will be playing a hand on Thursday. Reckon the Flemington form of Hurry Curry (6) will provide a run for his money here, Danny O’Brien is no slouch either with the fillies and while this girl failed in the Ethereal the previous start was a good win here. Were taking a throw at the stamps with Shockletz (11) last week before being scratched, worth another try here despite the jump in grade. Jenni’s Meadow (1) was not far behind a good one in Too Darn Discreet last start and both wins have been on dry tracks.
Selections – 6-5-11-1
Race 6 – Coolmore Stud Stakes (G1, 1200m, 3YO SW)
The Group Ones and the quaddie kick off with the stallion maker and reckon it will this year. Growing Empire (1) has won all his 3YO contests handsomely and then performed very well against the older sprinters in the Manikato and Everest, as such is a deserved favourite here. Always wary though of Coolmore in their own race, suspect this has been the intended target for Switzerland (5) for a while and gets JMac onboard. Can’t be Switzerland in this caper so my preference is Growing Empire (1). Would have had Traffic Warden (3) right up there in this but for the inside draw, might still be good enough. Others are not without chance and rating the filly Bellatrix Star (14) as the best of them, she toyed with the older second level sprinters in the Schillaci.
Selections – 1-5-3-14
Race 7 – Victoria Derby (G1, 2500m, 3YO SW)
Great to see a capacity field to greet the starter of the time-honoured derby. No better form than winning a group one so El Castello (1) is an obvious favourite, however, will come out of the widest barrier with only a short distance to the first turn. Might just be better than the rest but at the current quote would “prefer others”. Of the others Red Aces (2) has made good progression through his runs and won the Vase last week, J Mott has stuck with him all the way and is drawn well. King of Thunder (8) was not far behind him with tougher run last week, gets the inside barrier which JMac should be able to use to his advantage. In amongst all that is Keeneland (3) who gets Bowman on board and is a winner here. Doesn’t end there as the Derby can throw up some shock results which can be quite Scary (13).
Selections – 2-8-1-3
Race 8 – Empire Rose Stakes (G1, 1600m, Fillies & Mares WFA)
Pride of Jenni announced herself in this race last year with a bold front running ride to win, this year Grinzinger Belle (11) will try and do the same and might be good enough to hold on. Another interesting runner in the race is Zardozi (5) who is likely to line up for the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday. Bart regularly had runners back up from the McKinnon or the Hotham Hcp to the Cup with success, the Grandson doesn’t have a 2000m race to use this year, so it is The Empire Rose. She has the class to win this and might be the one who can catch Grinzinger Belle (11). Orchestral (3) was not quite in tune for the Toorak but closed well, should get a clearer run with Zahra engaged. Atishu (1) is not to be sneezed at either, she has been competing in open company at the top level and did run second to Jenni here last year. More than a few punters will load up on the progressive Plenty of Ammo (13) who was brilliant last week, while the best of Amelia’s Jewel (2) is right up to this. And there is more – great race!
Selections – 3-1-11-5
Race 9 – Begonia Belle (G3, 1100m, Mares SWP)
What a way to finish the quaddie with 19 of them charging down the straight! Provided the outside rail is on, then this sets up beautifully for Pondalowie (19). A mare in good form with everything in her favour. Plenty of worthy competitors though, Pharari (15) won well in Sydney last start, Sans Doute (3) was not far away in on open Group 2 sprint last start and Isthmus (17) a winner over this journey and a great record on firm tracks. At odds also some interest in Cigar Flick (10) for CJW with a terrific fresh record.
Selections – 19-15-3-17
Quaddie
It’s Derby Day so we spend up a bit, but we need to with the depth of some of the races. We are going chips in early to try and get the percentage up with only three in the opening leg but be prepared to go a bit wider if the budget allows.
Leg 1 – 1, 3, 5
Leg 2 – 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 8, 13
Leg 3 – 1, 2, 3, 5, 11, 13
Leg 4 – 3, 10, 15, 17, 19
630 Combinations, a $50 investment will return 7.9% of the dividend
Have a Red Ace Day!
Cheers, Sal
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Sal, I like your assessment about Derby Day being in need of “rebalancing”. Couldn’t agree more.
It seems they have bent over backwards to try and fix problems which, to be perfectly honest, I thought never existed. For example, they were worried that the Hotham Hcp was too close to Cup day and so unfair to have such a late wild card free entry. So what? Tell Mark Kavanagh, Corey Brown (Shocking) and Mike Moroney, Kerrin McEvoy (Brew) all about that. And remind me, just exactly how long had this race been on the Derby Day card?
The McKinnon Stakes was the outstanding WFA feature race almost always won by elite level 2000 metre stars. Its absence leaves a big hole on the Derby Day card and I’m still scratching my head trying to work out why it had to be shifted.
The major sprint of the day variously called the Craven A, the Pure Pak, the Gadsden and other titles always deserved its Group One status as its winners form a roll call of the best sprinters over the past couple of generations. I imagine it has been renamed yet again and buried somewhere else in the week where it was meant to “beef up” a “weaker” day’s card. I still can’t find it.
I suppose we should be grateful at least that they have left the Wakeful and Empire Rose for the fillies and mares and the “stallion maker” Coolmore Stud retains its Group One spot. Mind you, don’t give them ideas because some bright spark will come up with a good reason to move them too.
I know your narrative is silent on the matter Sal, however I can’t but help feel that the VRC is just more than a little spooked by the emergence of the aggressive Sydney agenda. There is no walking away from the fact that it has diluted some of the racing industry personnel who would normally have been in Melbourne and created other logistical problems for Victorian racing. But hey, do you reckon that is just going to disappear? Fat chance!
Well written mate.
RDL
Hey Roger, Derby day definitely not as good as when I went in the 2000’s.
The Hotham/Archer had some fields the previous years and was shifted to September with still a win and your in the cup.it still had a small field and the winner Point King is out of the cup. It has being lost and forgotten, hopefully next year back on Derby Day.
The Salinger was the sprint race, it is now called Champions Sprint. I personally like it on Stakes day as we have 3 Grand Finals at 2000, 1600 & 1200. While shifted prior to the Sydney race the hope is although unlikely to happen this year that some of those iin the Russell Balding like Bella etc race in Melbourne. The Salinger was at various times on Oaks day and then swapped to the Derby with Linlithgow (now the Damien Oliver) moved to Oaks. Linlithgow moved backed to Derby and then changed from 1200m to 1400 as derby day as Begonia Belle and Rising Fast are straight sprints.
The McKinnon struggle with the 7 day let up from Cox Plate and since 20000 horses not using as a Melbourne cup lead up. For example unlikely Via Sistina would run on Derby day.
I think they Hope horses from Empire rose may have a crack at Mile or McKinnon and maybe Ascot Vale/Coolmore have a go at the sprint.
Vic racing though can compete with the money and new programming in Sydney
Sprinters are bypassing Melbourne, think horses ran in the King Charles instead of Cox, the Spring Championship one week prior to the Derby and Golden Eagle affecting races like Empire Rose, Champion Mile and even McKinnon