Almanac Footy (History): Why the Blues cannot win the 2022 flag and why the Dees may struggle

 

 

 

 

The Blues won’t win it in 2022 (and the Dees might struggle, too).

There’s a lot of hype about the possibility of the Blues coming from nowhere in 2021 to win the 2022 flag.  You know, like the Cats did in 2007, the Tigers another ten years later and then the Dees last year.  Forget it!

The Blues won’t win the flag this year.  A quick look at flag winners ‘from nowhere’ in the final 8 era should explain why.

Here is the list of teams winning a flag after missing the 8 the previous year.
1997 Crows: last finals appearance 1993 (4 years prior);
2007 Cats: last finals appearance 2005 (2 years prior);
2017 Tigers: last finals appearance 2015 (2 years prior);
2021 Dees: last finals appearance 2018 (3 years prior).

So these flag winners didn’t quite come from ‘nowhere’, except perhaps the Crows.  They were a newly formed team in 1991 and should’ve made the Grand Final in 1993 but threw away a huge 42 point half-time lead.  So, yes, it was four years prior and the 11^th, 11^th and 12^th from 1994 to 1996 doesn’t inspire, but they were a premiership threat in the recent years before 1997.

The Cats were building early in the new millennium and made the finals in both 2004 and 2005. Then they had an absolute shocker in 2006 (10^th) before winning the flag in 2007. So they had had two recent finals appearances.

Richmond lost 3 Elimination Finals in a row from 2013 to 2015, so they were also building under Damien Hardwick.  They repeated Geelong’s pattern and had a shocker in 2016 with 13^th prior to the flag year.

Melbourne had one only finals appearance in 2018, then a dismal 17^th in 2019, and a creditable 9^th in 2020 before winning the 2021 flag.

Now let’s look at Carlton! They last played in the finals a whopping 9 years ago (2013); and they finished 9^th that year – only making the finals because the Bombers were disqualified.  Since then, the ladder finishing positions have been 13^th, 18^th, 14^th, 16^th, 18^th, 16^th, 11^th and 13^th.  That’s not an historical lead-up to a flag.

Because the Blues now appear to be building, this year mirrors the above flag winners in their years prior to winning the cup (eg Geelong in 2004/05 and Richmond 2013/15).  Not this year, Blues fans.

On to the Dees – how could anyone possibly write them off after seeing what they did in last year’s finals series while they sit high on the ladder (second at the completion of round 19)?  The answer lies in the winning margin in last year’s Grand Final – 73 points.

Here’s a summary of teams winning big in a Grand Final and how they went the following year (again, only back to the final 8 years).  ‘Big’ will be defined by ‘over 30 points’.

1994: Eagles win by 80 points; 1995: lost Week 2 of finals;
1995: Blues by 61 points; 1996: lost Week 2 of finals;
1996: Roos by 43 points; 1997: lost Prelim;
1997: Crows by 31 points; 1998: won GF*;
1998: Crows by 35 points; 1999: 13th;
1999: Roos by  35 points; 2000: lost Prelim;
2000: Bombers by 60 points; 2001: lost GF;
2003: Lions by 50 points; 2004: lost GF;
2004: Port by 40 points; 2005: lost Week 1 of finals;
2007: Cats by 119 points; 2008: lost GF;
2010: Pies won GF replay by 56 points; 2011: lost GF;
2011: Cats by 38 points; 2012: lost Week 1 of finals;
2014: Hawks by 63 points; 2015: won GF;
2015: Hawks by 46 points; 2016: lost Prelim;
2017: Tigers by 48 points; 2018: lost Prelim;
2019: Tigers by 89 points; 2020: won GF;
2020: Tigers by 31 points; 2021: 12th.

In summary, only 3 of the 17 big winners won the GF the following year.  That’s not a great strike rate.

Next, consider that almost all 17 teams entered the new season as flag favourites (admittedly, it’s hard to find precise data on this).  Additionally, the following teams entered the finals series as favourites (often as hot favourites): Bombers 2001, Cats 2008, Pies 2011, Hawks 2015, Tigers 2018 and 2020.

The last piece of the puzzle is the most interesting.  What do the three winners in the above list (ie, win a GF big and then win again the following year – Crows 1998, Hawks 2015 and Tigers 2020) have in common? They all lost in Week 1 of the final series the year after their big Grand Final win.

The Crows finished 5^th and would’ve been eliminated had the current final 8 finals series been in place, although they played team 4 in the first week of the 1998 finals series and nowadays would play team 8.

The Hawks also lost in the first week of the finals in 2015 and Richmond followed suit in the 2020 season which was affected by hubs and with the GF being played at the Gabba.

So how do the Dees win the flag this year?  History suggests that they need to lose in the first week of the finals.  This means a top 4 finish and the long way to the GF – playing all 4 weeks.  Would they look at the history and throw game 1?  It’s extremely unlikely!  It is yet to be determined if they make the top four and, if so, who they play and where.

So there you have it – Blues no hope and the Dees have major obstacles.  All this is based purely on history.  If you look back further in the history of the finals, you will see the trend still working.  But then you’ll have a final 6, a final 5 and a final 4 to consider if you want to do your own analysis.

Finally, a reminder that past performances are not indicative of future performances and you should consult your football analysis professional before stressing out too much about your team’s flag chances in 2022.

 

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