Richmond went from 13th in 2016 to a flag in 2017. Geelong were 10th in 2006, then premiers in 2007. Stats like this give hope to fans of teams that struggled in 2024, but it is rare for sides to ‘come from nowhere’ to win a flag.
The Tigers made the finals in 2013, 2014 and 2015 prior to their 2016 flop. Similarly, the Cats played finals in 2004 and 2005 before slumping to tenth in 2006. So both teams were in the mix prior to their horror years.
The only team this century to miss the finals two years running and then win the flag was Melbourne in 2019 through to 2021. The Dees narrowly missed finals when finishing ninth in 2020. It should be remembered that 2020 and 2021 were the Covid years, so looking for repeatable trends from this period of time may be unproductive.
Every other premiership team in this century made finals the year prior to their flag. It seems likely, therefore, that a team missing the finals in 2023 and 2024 and not narrowly missing finals in 2024 won’t win the 2025 flag. On that basis, we can write off Richmond, North Melbourne, West Coast Eagles, Adelaide Crows, Cold Coast Suns and Essendon.
St Kilda and Melbourne registered 11 wins in 2024. This is more than the 8 wins the Tigers managed in their 2016 annus horribilis. But there are major concerns for both teams. The Saints just cannot score enough and lack a bit of midfield spark. The Dees have too many problems both on and off the field to be a real flag threat next year.
Fremantle finished on 12 ½ victories. They missed finals narrowly after going down in the final round and fit the pattern of Melbourne in 2020/21. It would be tempting to tip them as a longshot for the 2025 premiership. But it is tough to imagine them winning a flag from outside the top 8 when the Eagles were never able to achieve that feat.
Carlton (13 wins) and Collingwood (12 wins and 2 draws) were the next 2 teams as we scale the 2024 table. The Blues and Pies were 2nd and 3rd on the ladder after Round 14, but dropped away late in the season. Carlton fell into the finals only because Port knocked off the Dockers in the final round and then were scoreless close to half-time against the Lions in the Elimination Final. With too many injury-prone players on the list, the Blues don’t look a big threat in 2025.
Similarly, the Magpies’ late season fade-out doesn’t inspire too much hope. With several important players having interrupted pre-seasons, 2025 will not be the year of the Pies.
The Dogs finished sixth, but then lost an Elimination Final to the Hawks. Their 2016 flag was won on the back of the first year of the pre-season bye (had that not happened, the Giants surely would’ve beaten them in the Prelim) and their 2021 grand final ended in a final term disaster. They are not quite up to winning the big one.
Surely the Hawks are the rising stars of the comp, right? Yes they are; just like Essendon in the 1980s. In 1981 the Bombers began the year horribly, just like the 2024 Hawks. Then Essendon hit top form to charge into the finals, where an early loss finished their season. It took them 3 more years to win a flag. 2025 is too soon for Hawthorn.
The Giants finished top 4 in 2024 but went out in straight sets (albeit in two narrow losses to the eventual grand finalists). But now they have lost a group of handy players. They should be thereabouts again without winning.
Port Adelaide provided us with some great theatre after edging out the Hawks in Week 2 of the finals. The following week, they bombed out again in the Prelim. That’s their lot in life, it seems. Expect another Prelim loss.
The Cats went close to making the Grand Final last year and are perennial finalists. But their age graph is a two-humped camel. Most of their good players are very old or quite young. It’s not a recipe for premiership success.
The big Grand Final loss was all too much for John Longmire. He departed which led to yet another smooth coaching transition at the Swans. The one flag they won under the Horse (in 2012) was a Lance Franklin-inspired win. Buddy missed some easy shots for the Hawks which enabled Sydney to sneak over the line. Grand finals have been a disaster since then for the Swans and it might be better if they don’t make it at all.
This leaves the reigning premiers in Brisbane. They totally look the goods and will surely be among the favourites for 2025. But teams that have won grand finals by big margins have not been able to go back to back this millennium. That is, unless they lose the Qualifying Final. Would Chris Fagan deliberately throw a first final to better his team’s chances of a flag? Not likely.
So, in summary, there will not be a winner in 2025. This previously occurred in 1896; or 2007 in the NRL. Enjoy cheering your team on, but keep your expectations low.
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Doug Long landed the best job ever in the late 1960s – doing the footy scoreboard at Nyah. Six hours glorious work for $1.50 in his pocket. Now he writes for the Northern Football Netball League for free.
So, no winners in 2025. But who’s going to be the loser? This year’s Swannies?
Matt – must admit I never thought of the GF loser; maybe someone can write another whole article on that subject