The Way-Too-Early 2013 Preview: Collingwood

COLLINGWOOD

2012 was the Magpies first season under favourite son Nathan Buckley following the quiet, uneventful, everyone-is-on-the-same-page-and-is-happy-and-content-and-will-not–take-the-Carlton-job transition from Mick Malthouse. If there was one word to describe the year, it would be drama. Malthouse and Eddie Maguire spent much of the early going throwing barbs at one another while a giant magnifying glass hovered over Buckley. When that spat finally relented, the Travis Cloke contract situation, and his simultaneous on field struggles, took over the limelight. In 2012, it was more about what was going on off the field than on it.

On it, Collingwood experienced some pretty significant declines after their rampaging 2011.

	Competition Rankings
	Collingwood in 2011	Collingwood in 2012
H&A Finishing Spot	1st	4th
Disposals	2nd	5th
Contested Possessions	1st	3rd
Clearances	2nd	tied 6th
Inside 50s	1st	10th
Marks Inside 50	tied 4th	6th
Tackles	3rd	8th
Hitouts	15th	13th
Goals	2nd	tied 9th
Points Against	1st	5th

 

What were the reasons for this? Is Buckley a bad coach? Was Malthouse just a really, really good one? Does the decline even have anything to do with coaching? The Magpies spent much of the year battling the Eagles for the claim of most injury ravaged side. Collingwood lost Luke Ball for the entire season during round 3, with key players like Pendlebury, Johnson, Reid, Tarrant, Thomas and Shaw also missing pockets of games due to injury. Following a titanic 2011, Travis Cloke hit an iceburg in 2012, but kept acting as if he hadn’t.

But despite these issues, and despite the on-field decline, the Pies still secured a top four spot last year. So, is their grip on the top four beginning to unravel, or are they so firmly locked in that not even all the turmoil of 2012 could knock them out?

2012 Key Statistics

Collingwood 2012 Offensive
	Average per Game	Competition Rank
Disposals	369.2	5th
Contested Possessions	146.3	3rd
Clearances	38.6	tied 6th
Inside 50s	52.3	10th
Marks Inside 50	12.2	6th
Hitouts	36.2	13th
Goals	13.6	tied 9th

 

Collingwood 2012 Defensive
	Average per Game	Competition Rank
Points Against	82.86	5th
Inside 50s Conceded	50.3	10th
Marks Inside 50 Conceded	10.6	tied 8th
Tackles	65	8th

 

Collingwood 2012 Offensive/Defensive Differentials
	Total	Competition Rank
Inside 50s Opponent Differential(Total Inside 50s minus Total Inside 50s conceded)	50	11th
Marks Inside 50 Opponent Differential(Total Marks Inside 50 minus Total Marks Inside 50 conceded)	10.6	tied 8th

 

What are they great at?

Despite their top four finish, Collingwood only ranked among the top four in one key statistic, contested possessions. The Pies have two of the very best contested ball winners in the competition in Scott Pendlebury (5^th most per game in 2012) and Dane Swan (11^th). Not far behind them are pocket rocket Jarryd Blair and breakout star Dayne Beams.

What are they good at?

They may not have been great at many things in 2012, but they were still good at several.

The Magpies were good at getting their hands on the footy, finishing fifth for disposals per game and sixth in clearances. The Pies will be hoping the return of Luke Ball will also result in a return to their phenomenal ball winning ability in 2011.

Collingwood were okay defensively, allowing the 5^th least points against per game, but only 10^th for inside 50s conceded. Again, they experienced a significant drop in this area of the game, after they had conceded the least points of any side in the competition the season prior.

What do they need to improve?

Collingwood experienced an alarming fall in their inside 50 entries last year, down to 10^th after leading the competition in 2011. Unsurprisingly, they suffered a similar drop-off in their average goals per game, down to ninth after being the second most potent side the year before.

What are they bad at?

The only real area Collingwood have struggled in over the past few years is hit-outs. I imagine they are relatively unperturbed by this, given their immense midfield numbers in spite of this weakness. The Pies added experienced and often retired ruckman Ben Hudson to support Darren Jolly. They also have a couple of talented young ruckmen on the list, primarily the monstrously huge Jarrod Witts and recently drafted Brodie Grundy.

POINTS OF INTEREST IN 2013

Travis Cloke

After a superb 2011 season, Cloke’s production reduced across the board last year.

Cloke’s Per Game Averages in 2011 and 2012
	Disposals	Marks	Contested Marks	Marks Inside 50	Goals
2011	15.64	7.68	3.8	3.52	2.76
2012	13.2	6.28	2.92	2.84	2.36

Cloke’s very public contract dispute with the Pies was one of the prevailing storylines throughout the season, and it seemed pretty clear that it was affecting his performances. It wasn’t a case of not quite being as good as the season before either. It was like watching a completely different player. Gone was the overpowering force that swallowed the ball whenever it was in his vicinity, replaced by someone who seemed almost timid at times. His drop off didn’t go unnoticed, with newspaper columns and talking heads pointing out the disparity between what he was bringing to the table and he wanted from Collingwood in return.

The Pies and Cloke finally agreed to a monster five year deal at the end of the season. The question now shifts to what version they got. Did they get the game changing 2011 Cloke, or the version we saw in 2012 and years prior? We know which one they paid for, but which one do they actually have?

Return of Luke Ball

Losing Ball in round 3 last year was a serious blow for the Pies. Ball led the team in tackles in 2011, and was one of the leaders in contested possessions and clearances. His return should improve an already very good midfield.

Alan Didak

Few players have experienced such an alarming and sudden drop in production like Didak has over the past few seasons.

Alan Didak Regression
Year	Games	Disposals	Tackles	Goals
2010	24	24.6	2.7	41
2011	20	17.8	2.2	9
2012	11	16.5	1	6

The enigmatic magpie has gone from one of the best players in the side to a fringe member of the twenty-two. Injuries have played a significant role, and there are serious questions as to whether his body can hold up over the course of an entire season any more. Without significant improvement, Didak may find his Collingwood career, and indeed his AFL career, coming to a very quick close at years end.

New faces

There was quite a bit of player turnover for Collingwood in the off-season.

Collingwood List Changes
OUT	IN
Sharrod Wellingham	Quinten Lynch
Chris Dawes	Clinton Young
Tom Young	Jordan Russell
Cameron Wood	Brodie Grundy
Jonathon Ceglar	Ben Kennedy
Kirk Ugle	Tim Broomhead
Luke Rounds	Jackson Ramsay
Simon Buckley	Kyle Martin (RL)
Paul Cribbin	Sam Dwyer (RL)
Daniel Farmer	Adam Oxley (RL)
Shae McNamara	Jack Frost (RL)
Trent Stubbs	Ben Hudson (RL)
Lachlan Smith	Ben Richmond (RL)

RL = Rookie Listed.

Quinten Lynch was clearly brought in to fill the void left by Dawes’ departure as a second key forward option, and, if last year’s output is anything to go on, then he could be considered an upgrade.

2012 Comparison: Dawes and Lynch
	Dawes	Lynch
Age	24.8	30
Games	23	21
Disposals	12.7	12.5
Marks	4.8	5.4
Total Marks Inside 50	18	28
Avg Marks Inside 50	0.78	1.33
Total Goals	16	33
Avg Goals	0.7	1.6

 

Dawes was no doubt physically hindered at times last year, and this impacts on his numbers. Regardless, Lynch is a solid proposition on a weekly basis, and his presence should prevent statements like “man we miss Chris Dawes”.

Clinton Young is a nice addition. The former Hawk should slot onto one of the wings for the Pies. Young is a very good attackingly minded player, and his speed and raking left boot lend themselves to that mentality. Only Brett Deledio and Patrick Dangerfield sent the ball inside their attacking forward fifty more times a game in 2012.

2012 Comparison: Wellingham and Young
	Wellingham	Young
Age	24.6	26.11
Games	20	20
Disposals	19.2	17.95
Contested Possessions	8.3	3.6
Clearances	2.85	1.1
Tackles	4.35	3.2
Inside 50s	3.35	5.4
Goals	13	13

While Wellingham was competent in both an inside and outside role, Young is almost exclusively an outside midfielder. Given the Magpies strength inside, the impact of Wellingham’s departure should be minimal.

 

2012 Comparison: Wood and Hudson
	Wood	Hudson
Age	25	33.11
Games	6	18
Disposals	12.183	14.78
Contested Possessions	6.67	10.22
Hit-Outs	22	25.17

Ben “Farnham” Hudson is a significant upgrade over the departed Cameron Wood in the backup ruck department. Collingwood generally went with just the one genuine ruck in 2012, so Hudson won’t make frequent appearances in black and white barring injury to Jolly. As far as safety nets go though, Hudson is a nice one.

Round 2 v Carlton

I’m putting this here because it probably won’t get much press otherwise…

2013 OUTLOOK

If Collingwood play at the same level they did in 2012, then they are the leading candidate amongst last year’s top four finishers to relinquish that spot. West Coast’s crushing injury woes and Geelong’s average start to the season are the only thing that prevented them falling out last year.

The good news for Pies fans is that everything is looking better already. With Ball returning, and the additions of Lynch and Young, the Pies look stronger on paper heading into 2013 than they did in 2012. It’s hard to imagine them having the same torrid luck with injury too, which will obviously help immensely. The key members of the side are effectively the same as the ones featured in their dominant 2011 season, so we know they are more than capable of maintaining their top four hold. Tarrant is gone, but Brown and Reid have shown enough for this not be a concern. Cloke is the biggest enigma. If he returns to his 2011 form than you would feel comfortable locking them in as a top four side. If he struggles as he did last season, then they will be battling it out with a handful of other sides for those coveted places.