The Statistical Premiership Window 2015: The Eagles to Deny Hawthorn A Three-Peat

The numbers are in.

Cold, hard numbers that do not lie (except for last year when Port kicked their way out of a Grand Final berth).

The West Coast Eagles and Hawthorn are the only teams to finish the Home & Away inside the Statistical Premiership Window. After improving offensively for the last 4 years, Fremantle have slipped back into a negative Offensive ratio and are placed fifth on the Premiership Window Index (PWI).

My betting advice is to put the house on the Eagles. They will deny the Hawks a three-peat in the big game.

THE CASE FOR

I simply demonstrate with three charts:

 

2015 TOP 8 PREMIERSHIP WINDOW CHART

2015 Final 8

 

 

Here are the winners since 2007:

 

AFL PREMIERSHIP WINNERS, 2007 TO 2014

2007-2014 Winners

 

 

Here is how the runners-up faired relative to the window:

 

AFL RUNNERS-UP, 2007 TO 2014

2007-2014 Losers

 

From the last eight premierships, only Geelong in 2007 won the flag from a position well outside of the Statistical Premiership Window. However, in that year, no team finished inside the window and the Cats were situated on the positive side of the window and clearly best placed to win the flag.

Why not Fremantle to finally win a Premiership Cup for Ross Lyon? No team that has finished outside the top four in the Premiership Window Index (since 2007) has made it to the Grand Final. In 2015, the Dockers finished with a PWI rank of 5, even though they finished top of the ladder. While top spot places them at an advantage, I see either the Hawks or the Eagles knocking them off in the preliminary final.

 

The Premiership Window Index Rankings of Finalists

Table 2015

The table shows my tip for who will play off in the big game this year.

 

THE CASE AGAINST

This year to be honest (most humbly) I don’t see any case against! But, I guess of my predicted GF teams, it could be pointed out that the top placed team at the end of the Home & Away has made every Grand Final in the period of analysis. Freo’s home advantage should make it harder for them to get knocked out. I’m tipping the Hawks to be able to defeat Freo at home in the Preliminary Final, but then lose their legs in the GF after all the travel during the finals.

 

 

Interested in knowing how the Statistical Premiership Window is calculated? HERE’S THE S.P.W EXPLAINED.

 

 

Check out the Ladbroke prices for Round 23

Check out the Ladbroke prices for week one of the 2015 finals series

 

 

Comments

  1. Good analysis, but why 7 years? I’m a passionate Eagles supporter and I’d love a flag this year, but if you go back to our 2006 flag and the 2005 Sydney flag, I would think both teams would be outside the PMW because the game was a lot more defensive then. I hate to admit it, but there’s every chance Fremantle can take a flag using that same defensive mindset. I hope for the sake of all that is holy, that I am very wrong.

  2. Trucker Slim says

    Thanks DL, but why will the Evils win? The mighty Hawks sit inside the SPW as well. It’s not because we consigned the Blues to the status of wooden spooners is it?

    Cheers

  3. DJ – if this is right (and I believe it is the most accurate analysis going around) then the Eagles v Hawks this week will probably determine the Premier.

    Surprised to see the Dogs up so high.

  4. Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics….but it is hard to argue against because to do so I would have to use statistics, and perhaps lie a little.

    The first final in Perth between Hawks and Eagles determined the premier in both 1991 and 1992 when they met there. It looks like it may well do it again.

    Go Hawks

  5. Hi Cory – I have only gone back to 2007 because I only have so much time to put together the data! I would love to go back a little further. From my very original (and more simplistic analysis (you could probably find it if you look for articles by me) in 2005 no team was inside the window and so the Swans were the only team outside to have won the flag. In 2006, the Eagles actually were in the window. When I re-did the analysis, Geelong in 2007 ended up outside the window too – so not everything is perfect. The numbers would suggest that Freo having a negative offensive ratio can’t win it – but their home ground advantage might see them through to the GF (unless they end up facing the Eagles in the Prelim).

    Hi Rick – I had to pick one team! In fact I changed it three times, first with Eagles, then with Hawks for the Three-Peat and then back to Eagles as I think they can beat the Hawks in the first week of the finals. I think the Hawks could then beat Freo in Perth but all the travel might make it hard for them to get over the line in the GF.

    Hi Dips – yes the final this weekend between Hawks and Eagles will have big implications on the outcome. But even if the Hawks win, I still think the Eagles can get through as all their games will be in Perth until the GF.

    Hi Aussioe80s – it is a close call indeed. Most likely my predictions will unravel again this year as they did last.

  6. Love this djlitsa.
    In a world buckling under the weight of inside50-hardballget-clanger-statistics (I presume, having removed all trace of them from my life) it takes a mind with the creativity and clarity of Leonardo da Vinci to cut through the fog.
    So Leonardo, I guess we could sum this up as: if West Coast don’t win this, they have no one to blame but themselves.

  7. Thanks for your kind words ER – I try to not take the number too seriously or to make any proper analytical sense of them – just a bit of fun to do. To put a twist on your conclusion, I think if Freo don’t win the flag they only have their defence-based game plan to blame! With their poor offensive ratio they have really opened the door for the Eagles and the Hawks.

  8. 1. The print is too small in those insert things.

    2. Your comments are too long.

    3. Are you Tony Abbott?

  9. Bon chance. Tres Bien. Merci Monsieur DJ Litsa.

  10. Interesting as always, DJ. Freo seems to be throwing everyone’s statistical analyses out this year. I wonder if they have been foxing more than just in Rd 23. The number of games this year where they had a comfortable 3 qtr time lead and then just cruised, may just be putting them not quite where they should be. That and they struggle to kick goals, I suppose.

  11. David Zampatti says

    Who knows? Even the ladder, which seems the most straightforward of statistical measure, tells you almost nothing. (For example, if David Mundy hadn’t kicked that death knock goal against Richmond, Freo would have finished 5th, West Coast would be playing Richmond in Perth, Hawthorn would be playing Sydney at the G and the whole world would be different.)
    So let’s see whose up and about for the finals this weekend and take it from there.

    Oh, and Peter B, how does that club jingle of yours go again. I’m coming out of the theatre in Subi around about final siren time, and I hope to Christ I’m hearing it being played.

  12. The window never lies. Cest magnifique.

  13. OK, clarification please. When was the last time a side lost in the first week of the finals then went on to claim the flag ? Adelaide in 1997 ? Can some one let me know.

    Glen!

  14. Well I’ve answered my own Q? In the opening week of the 2006 finals West Coast started with a loss, before bouncing back to grab the flag. There youse go, a bit of footy trivia.

    Glen!

  15. DJL, I’d say your window is looking pretty clear-sighted.

  16. Adam Goodes playing again in Western Australia and guess what, the Booing starts again. Why does the link between the west of Australia, and the perception of racism once again coincide?

    Glen!

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