Sal’s Racing Preview: Final Day Preview – And so long for 2022!

Greetings All,

 

The carnival comes to a close as do my predictions and pontifications for another year.  After potting the quality of the Cup it once again delivered as a great race predicted Gold Trip would be in front at the clock tower and a might effort to still be there at the winning post!  This week we see the reshaping of the carnival with WFA contests over 1200, 1600 and 2000 with all of them attracting fantastic fields.  I lament the lack of a 2000m race on Derby Day perhaps they need a race with similar conditions to the Turnbull on the day, however the overall result of the change gives us some mouth-watering contests.

 

 

Flemington

 

A fine day predicted and a dry track, however race 1 will be the 29th for the week, expect that runners will be fanning wide from pretty early in the day and look for sprinters down the outside rail in the straight races.  We could also see some form turn arounds as the dry trackers finally get a good surface.

 

As we have had all week big fields and open races with the opener providing just that.  We have had plenty of long shots get up and hoping I am on the right one early with Beltoro (R1, #13), handy second up and a winner here.  Concerned about the favourite Aesop (R2, #8) after failing at Caulfield but might just appreciate the bigger track, looking wider JMac and CJW pair up with Agnelli (R2, #9) drawn wide but the 2000m start gives them plenty of time to find a slot.  A win will be all the sweeter for Sweetened (R3, #16) after missing out on getting a run earlier in the week.

 

 

Race 4 – Queens Cup (G3, 2600m, HCP)

 

We have seen a couple 2023 cup prospects recently in Francesco Guardi and White Marlin will this race produce another?  Soulcombe (11) makes his Australian debut for CJW, has a good record and is well found in the market.  Provided the issue with Lunar Flare (5) is all clear then I reckon she can get the consolation prize after missing the run on Tuesday.  Persan (2) and Great House (4) had reasonable lead up form for the cup, their campaigns were halted to target this race.

 

Selections – 5-11-2-4

 

Race 5 – Matriarch Stakes (G2, 2000m, Mares SWP)

Sydney and Melbourne form crashes together here in a very competitive race.  Could not miss the close of Atishu (4) in the Empire Rose and the extra 400 will suit.  Foxy Frida (7) is the Melbourne form has been thereabouts and get to her favourite track.  Plenty of other hopes with Honey Creeper (5) in great form and Glory Bound (13) who beat Foxy Frida (7) home last start.  Chances don’t end there – Polly Grey (2) is more than up to this any rain probably makes her favourite.

Selections – 4-7-5-13

 

 

Race 6 – VRC Sprint (G1, 1200m, WFA)

 

The presence of Nature Strip (1) and Giga Kick (14) have not scared away too many with a field of 15 to contest this with plenty backing up from the Manikato.  He will be short but the stats say Nature Strip (1) will peak here.  7 from 9 third up, 6 from 9 at Flemington with 3 from 4 over the 1200m course here.  His conqueror Giga Kick (14) is a clear challenger to his throne beat him last start and good down the straight as is the Manikato winner Bella Nipotina (9) who blew that field away.  September Run (10) gets the outside barrier and has a handy record here, hard to leave out Roch ‘N’ Horse (11) who has not missed the quinella down the straight.

 

Selections – 1-14-9-10

 

 

Race 7 – Cantala Mile (G1, 1600m, WFA)

 

What a race this is and it’s just the entrée!  Private Eye (2) is in scintillating form stepping up from sprint races to the mile might be a cause for concern, but there is a G1 win over the distance on the CV.  Looks very hard to beat, but there is some quality and in form opposition.  My Oberon (9) blitzed a lesser field last start at the valley, Tuvalu (8)is great over the trip the step up to WFA will be a test, Mr Brightside (5) and Alligator Blood (4) come back from the Cox Plate and Cascadian (3) arrives in great form from Sydney.  Alligator Blood (4) should set the race up and if they leave him alone could pinch it, but just think the favoured two will be coming hard.

 

Selections – 2-9-4-5

 

 

Race 8 – McKinnon Stakes (G1, 2000m, WFA)

 

Anamoe (7) vs I’m Thunderstruck (1) could not have a better penultimate race for the carnival!  And if they just make it a match race then Zaaki (2) and a couple of other could knock them off.  The ones that are new to this scene are the 3yo colts in Elliptical (10) and Mr Maestro (11), if one of them sets the tempo could they pinch it with the lightweight?  CJW has an impact in most G1 races and brings Hinged (8) here, she is high quality.  Overall though expect the big two to fight it out.  Would the barriers have made the difference in the Cox Plate?  There are no excuses here and think there is little between them and both jockeys full of confidence, going with the vanquished to turn the tables.

 

Selections – 1-7-10-2

 

We close the carnival with JMac booked on two runners Taunting (6) and the emergency Treporti (20) like them both and prefer the one he gets on.

 

 

Quaddie Time

 

Let’s see if we can get four in final fling for the year!  We are going to take a couple – first going wide early and narrow in the last and the other taking the top picks in the first three and a couple more in the last.

 

Quaddie 1 – The Long and the Short

 

Leg 1 – 1, 2, 9, 10, 11, 14

Leg 2 – 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 9

Leg 3 – 1, 2, 7, 8, 10, 11

Leg 4 – 6, 20

 

432 Combinations, $25 Investment returns 5.8% of the dividend.

 

Quaddie 2 – The Short and the Longer

 

Leg 1 – 1, 9, 14

Leg 2 – 2, 9

Leg 3 – 1, 7

Leg 4 – 6, 9, 10, 14, 16, 20

 

72 Combinations, $25 Investment returns 34.8% of the dividend.

 

Shake down the Thunder!

 

See you on 2023 – Go Blues

 

Cheers, Sal

 

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Comments

  1. Thanks for your thoughts on footy and the horses Sal. Much appreciated. Look forward to your words in 2023.

  2. Daryl Schramm says

    Have been an interested follower Sal. I have appreciated your efforts.

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