Sal’s Preview 2025: Champions Day Preview – Going into the Last Quarter: a Stayer’s Test!

Greetings All,

 

Staying ability shone through for the Oaks with Strictly Business proving superior over the longer journey on a fabulous Day.  Staying ability will be tested as we approach the final quarter, it might be a slog with bad weather being the forecast at best and the potential for Noah to come looking for a colt and mare for the ark!

 

Flemington

 

The track has played well all week but looks like a challenging day with the likelihood of rain during the program which usually leads to rapid deterioration of the surface.  With 28 races down there will already be a fair bit of wear to the track, on the final day outside barriers are not necessarily at a disadvantage.  With the likelihood of multiple scratchings will add an extra runner in the selections.

 

Race 1 – Inglis Banner (Listed, 1000m, 2YO SW)

 

A bunch of first starters best to keep the powder dry and enjoy an opening beer or bubbles.

 

Race 2 – Ronald McDonald House Charities Mile (BM84, 1600m, Grey HCP)

 

The Price-Kent stable have placed Sabaj (2) carefully, has a great record but is untested on a wet track if he is able to handle it then a great winning chance.  After running Thursday expect Liberami (1) to come out, but Robbie Griffiths often backs his horses up during cup week and he is a chance if he goes around.  His other runner Nation’s Call (11) was a winner last start and handles the wet, as does Reset The Jazz (9) who gets JMac on board.  Angland (12) for the Begg/Childs combination is also handy on wet tracks. 

 

Selections – 2-1-11–9-12

 

Race 3 – Fisher Stakes (1200m, HCP)

 

Just like Raffa, Nadal (2) likes it on the slow side and gets his chance here in a very competitive race.  Big Swinger (15) is lightly raced with 66% strike rate and proven in the ground, Needs Some Luck (6) got it with the weather and has a good first up record.  Front Page (1) has the class and JMac but might be challenged by barrier 1 and Vestas (14) is also lightly raced and promising but an unknown in the wet.

 

Selections – 2-15-6-1-14

 

Race 4 – Matriarch Stakes (G2, 2000m, 4YO+ Mares SWP)

 

Could be a glutton for punishment pushing up See What I See (6) again, but she has a 6kg swing over She’s a Hustler (5) from their meeting in the Tesio and a much better price.  She’s a Hustler (5) is just a winner and never been out of the top two.  The unknown is Alalcance (1) she romped through the lead up races to the Sydney Cup before failing in that race.  Back to mares grade and first up will take some catching.  Jennilala (3) also gets weight relief from the Tesio and Blindedbythelight (12) has a win on the heavy and could be revved up like a deuce.

 

Selections – 6-5-1-3-12

 

Race 5 – Queen Elizabeth Stakes (G2, 2600m, HCP)

 

This renewal of the Lizzie is a wide open affair with a few of the less popular runners getting to a surface that could turn their fortunes.  One of those is Hezashocka (8), hard to have on recent form but all wins have been in the wet and gets his chance at a nice price.  Has to beat a couple of handy ones and Sayedaty Sadaty (3) comes off a good win in the Bendigo Cup just missing out on a run in the Melbourne Cup.  Star of India (7) beat Middle Earth home last start must be good form for this.  Berkeley Square (2) and Birdman (1) both have the class and capability to win this.  

 

Selections – 8-3-7-2-1

 

Race 6 – VRC Champions Sprint (G1, 1200m, WFA)

 

What a treat we have with three group ones over the classic distances!  The first of them over the sprint journey.  The market has it down to a race in two between Tentyris (10) and Joliestar (6).  Going with Tentyris (10) , what he has produced last two starts has been nothing short of spectacular.  A couple of caveats though, untried in the going and a change of pilot though C Williams is a more than handy replacement.  The mare won the Newmarket over this journey and will be tough to get past.  The colt’s previous jockey M Zahra could spoil the party on Giga Kick (1).  Great return in the Schillaci and a winner down the straight.  Tropicus (5) chased him home in that race and Caballus (3) was impressive winning here on Saturday.

 

Selections – 10-6-1-3-5

 

Race 7 – Champions Mile (G1, 1600m, WFA)

 

Via Sistina running in the next race has made this one a beauty.  I doubt Pride of Jenni (7) will be allowed to run along as she pleases as she did to win the Empire Rose.  There were many doubts about her at Group One level she sorted that out, but at the level in open company here is tougher.  Especially with Mr Brightside (1) over his favourite journey and in his favourite conditions he will be very hard to beat.  Ceolwulf (2) did so last start and will appreciate the speed Jenni will put into the race, first go at Flemington some question mark.  A much improved effort from Treasurethe Moment (9) in the Cox Plate, suspect D Lane will not let the bunny get out of sight and her best could win it.  Leica Lucy (10) was no match for Jenni last week, but this race shape will be different and she should be steaming home.  Steffi, Pericles, Lake Forest all have chances and the outsiders are not hopeless.  Can’t wait to watch this one! 

 

Selections – 1-9-7-2-10

 

Race 8 – Champions Stakes (G1, 2000m, WFA)

 

Is this a walk in the park for Via Sistina (10)?  Suspect she has these covered.  The unknown here is Zambardo (9) was scratched from a winnable race on Thursday for this.  It is a massive step up in grade but has won his last four and the stable are pretty astute.  Attrition (4) put in an excellent effort in the Cox Plate and reproduction here has him going well.  Tom Kitten (1) and Light Infantry Man (2) are both well suited here.

 

Selections – 10-9-4-1-2

 

Race 9 – Grand Handicap (BM80, 1100m, HCP)

 

For the final race of the carnival do we have the omen quinella with Stolli Bolli (6) and Sparkling (12)?  The former has been costly for punters, can she repay them here?  Has not won on wet ground but does have two placings – he is very good at placings!  JMac will give her every chance and could get it done.  The latter is not without hope and has a good record, this is a step up.  Balastier (10) has won all his starts since switching to the Danny O’Brien stables, and won a recent trial over Beadman and Beiwacht.  Presents well for this. It is also a step up for Actuality (16), won last start and C Wiliams stays on board.  The other Matt Laurie runner Miss Icelandic (4) has a handy record in the wet and 2 from 4 first up.  Appears well over the odds.  Chinqui (2) is capable and the outside gate might be in his favour.

 

Selections – 6-10-16-4-2

 

Quaddie

 

A dual strategy again with Via Sistina one out in one and another with a couple of others added just in case.

 

Quaddie 1 – Going via the cape

 

Leg 1 – 1, 6, 10

Leg 2 – 1, 2, 7, 9

Leg 3 – 1, 4, 9, 10 

Leg 4 – 2, 4, 6, 10, 16

 

240 Combinations, a $20 winning investment will return 8.33% of the dividend.

 

Quaddie 2 – Going Via Sistina

 

Leg 1 – 1, 6, 10

Leg 2 – 1, 2, 7, 9

Leg 3 – 10 

Leg 4 – 2, 4, 6, 10, 16

 

60 Combinations, a $30 winning investment will return 50% of the dividend.

 

She might not be my top pick but nothing better than watching her break them so there will be a shekel on her!

 

Go Jenni, Go!

 

Cheers, Sal

 

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