Sal’s Preview 2025: Turnbull Stakes Day – Review: Grand Final – They Left the Best Till Last

Greetings All,

 

For two and half quarters it looked like a thrilling finish was on hand.  Brisbane got the game on their terms in the second quarter but Geelong would not be denied and kept counter punching but eventually it broke.  An oft repeated comment all season was that the Lions best was better than anyone else, for those 20 minutes or so when they broke the game apart it was their best for the year.  It is a premiership for the ages, the challenges through retirements and injuries have been well documented, getting through all those to win so convincingly was a great club performance.  Now let’s add in Sam Draper and Oscar Allen and we see the league has a real equalisation problem.  That is for them to solve, not the clubs.

 

One of their tools for equalisation is some compensation for teams anchored in the lower reaches of the ladder.  The news that the West Coast Eagles were to receive such compensation beggars belief.  Yes they are in the doldrums, but they won a flag only seven years ago in an eighteen team competition.  The current predicament they are in has been largely self-inflicted as Don Pyke said “accepts and takes responsibility for previous decisions which contributed to our current situation”.  What bollocks if that were the case they would just get to work and recover, just like the Tigers are.  Their plight is no different to the Lions after the threepeat, they fell away with players leaving the club in droves.  Even after Fagan was appointed the Lions finished 18th, but they worked on the club, rebuilt the culture and we see the results now.

 

We have also seen the announcement of a couple of rule changes, the overriding question on any change is “what problem are you fixing?”  The secondary is “what will be the consequences and are you just creating another problem?”  Bouncing the bounce does resolve a couple of issues, keeping good decision makers in the game and the wretched recall.  On the other hand it removes one of the unique and quirky features of the game, starting each quarter with a bounce would have been a good compromise.  Not sure what the removal of sub achieves apart from silencing Chris Scott?  Which would not work anyway!  Without the sub rule does Luke Breust get to 300 games?  What does it look like for other veterans in playing as the supersub?  It does remove the issue of debutants playing their first game in a vest.  Should have been accompanied by a reduction in interchanges down to 60.

 

Track Time

 

While we have footy issues bubbling along and plenty more to come, the weekend attention gets to Flemington for ‘moving’ day.  The Turnbull Stakes Day program has events where the key hopes for a number of the feature races step out on for serious trial for major target races over the next few weeks.  Then at Randwick we have the Flight-Epsom-Metropolitan meeting plus one of the key lead up races to The Everest.  It promises to be a great kick off to the Racing Season.

 

Flemington

 

The rail is out at 9m for the meeting protecting the inside for the upcoming carnival but we should see a fair track presented perfectly with a bit of rain to take the fire out of the surface before a glorious 25° on Saturday.  We open with an interesting sprint and short favourite in She’s an Artist (R1, #12).  She might blow them away but has been costly at her last two starts.  More inclined to look for something at good each way odds and intrigued by the Kiwi Sought After (R1, #4) having its first start in Australia with the Moody/Coleman polish.  It will be beer and sanga time for the second with the first 2YO race of the season.  Will leave that for the insiders.  We then get a look at the Derby prospects in the Super Impose, always a watch and learn race but to pick one out like the draw of Officiate (R3, #3) over its main rivals and Waller/JMac is a handy combination.

 

Race 4 – Edward Manifold Stakes (G2, 1600m, 3YO Fillies SW)

 

The fillies line up for the first group race of the day and it’s a tough one to sort out.  Yum (4) was delicious in the Moloney and if the speed is on can win again.  It just got a tastier run than Spicy Lu (3) on that day so there is not much between them.  Have to respect the Sydney form and JMac engagement on Just a Journey (5) and Zany Girl (2) can feature just concerned about the inside draw.

 

Selections 4-3-5-2

 

Race 5 – Rose of Kingston Stakes (G2, 1400m, 4YO+ Mares SWP)

 

On Display (4) gets a mulligan last start after being squeezed up on the rails, drawn wider should give Ben Melham the opportunity for her to blend into the race.  Miraval Rose (2) found form last start and usually holds it well, Marble Arch (1) can win if she reproduces her form from early in the year and expecting Pop Award (3) to run a good race back against her own sex.

 

Selections 4-2-1-3

 

Race 6 – Danehill Stakes (G2, 1100m, 3YO SWP)

 

What a line up this race has drawn and which way do you go?  Nothing would surprise here and give the outsider McGaw (7) a good chance.  But putting the undefeated pair Legacy Bound (4) and Rosberg (6) as the top two with the price of the former more attractive.  The sheer volume of money on Rosberg (6) last start could not be ignored and that might happen again.  The complete unknown is Tentyris (1) won his first start over this trip then followed up second in the Blue Diamond.  M Zahra on board a positive.

 

Selections 4-6-7-1

 

Race 7 – The Bart Cummings (G3, 2500m, HCP)

 

13 of the 17 starters are chasing the golden ticket into the Melbourne Cup so we should expect a fair bit of intent in the run.  One of those down in the weights and coming off an impressive win last start is Gilded Water (15) and unsurprisingly the market hasn’t missed him.  Satedaty Sadaty (9) and Mormona (12) chased home Revelare (2) in the Archer and meet him at much better terms on the scale.  Not sure how much intent there will be with Revelare (2) The Archer win got his ticket into the cup and any wins at handicap level could attract a penalty.  This will be a target race for Berkshire Breeze (6) who is not in the Cup.  Would have rated Bur Dubai (17) much higher but has a tough draw to contend with.  Could have missed the lot but whoever wins will step right into Cup calculations.

 

Selections 15-9-12-6

 

Race 8 – Turnbull Stakes (G1, 2000m, SWP)

 

Plenty of cup contenders here also but many of them well inside the top 24 to guarantee them a start, a few of them also looking at the Cox Plate on the way through.  Last year’s winner came off a lacklustre run in the Makybe Diva, Via Sistina (4) has the Cox Plate at the top of her agenda and could be just too good again.  Thought the stable mate Aeliana (7) is the main danger, she beat her home in the Makybe Diva and looks well suited to Flemington.  Might have had Sir Delius (3) on top but for the wide barrier, C WIlliams did pilot Sepals to a G1 win in the Rupert Clarke  – could he strike again.  Expect a better performance from Zardozi (13) as she comes in 3rd up.  A good renewal and a critical race to watch with a view to the classics over the next few weeks.

 

Selections 4-7-3-13

 

Race 9 – Gilgai Stakes (G1, 1200m, SWP)

 

Not quite the top line sprinters but a handy field assembled nevertheless.  Doubts about Star Patrol (13) were dismissed with a gutsy second in the Bobbie Lewis.  He will strip fitter for the run and loves the straight.  Maher has displayed his intent with Nadal (8) with the engagement of JMac. He can put in a bad run but his best is very good.  War Machine (1) pays the penalty for being a winning machine through the winter.  The outside rail and B Shinn to his advantage – just concerned about the 60kg.  Looking for Buenos Noches (9) to improve but will demote him for La Fracas (17em1) should there be a scratching.

 

Selections – 13-8-1-9

 

The day closes with the Paris Lane Stakes, it’s an open affair and happy to go with (Enxuto R10, #11) and has a win over this journey.

 

Quaddie Time

 

With 3rd and 4th legs as wide affairs going with an unusual strategy this week.  Reckon the regent’s horse is the best of the day in the Bart so going one out, while just two more with Via Sistina before we spread out the last legs

 

Leg 1 – 15

Leg 2 – 3, 4, 7

Leg 3 – 1, 8, 9, 13, 15, 17em1

Leg 4 – 3, 9, 10, 11, 12

 

72 Combinations, a $30 winning investment will return 41.66% of the dividend.

 

Randwick

 

Race 6 – The Flight Stakes  (G1, 1600m, 3YO Fillies Set Weights)

 

Apocalyptic (1) has been just that lately and hard to see who can challenge.  Within the Law (4) needs to improve but her best is capable, Tupekara (3) is in good form but still to break her maiden status and looking for Queen of Clubs (5) to be finishing well and might even trump the lot of them

 

Selections – 1-4-3-5

 

The Premiere is a beauty with a number of Everest aspirants lining up Briasa (R7, #2) looks well suited but happy stump up for Jimmysstar (R7, #1) to come over the top.

 

Race 8 – The Epsom (G1, 1600m, HCP)

 

It’s an unusually small field for one of the big mile handicaps in Sydney, certainly lacking the depth we are used to.  Perhaps a few scared off by the presence of the undefeated Autumn Glow (4).  She will have her work cut out to win from the outside barrier but she has met every challenge presented so far.  Willydoit (6) could possibly – gets in with a lightweight and a handy draw.  Ceolwulf (1) and Pericles (2) are perennial performers in this company and capable of winning.

 

Selections – 4-6-2-1

 

Race 9 – The Metropolitan  (G1, 2400m, HCP)

 

Incredible that this has G1 status comparing it with the field running in the G3 Bart at Flemington.  But still there will be a G1 winner after the mile and half.  Reckon it might be Changingoftheguard (4) giving Team Williams some hope for another Melbourne Cup.  Soul of Spain (9) is building a nice picket fence and a chance to add one more.  Birdman (7) would have been top pick but has a tough draw to contend with and reckon Juja Kibo (18) will be suited being on the minimum.

 

Selections – 4-9-7-18

 

Here’s to the king – or at least his horse Gilded Water

 

Go Storm!

Cheers, Sal

 

 

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