Greetings All
It’s a worry for the game when the key topic around the water cooler on Monday morning is the adjudication of the game rather than the feats of Pendlebury, the quality of the Swans, Lions and Dockers or the malaise of Essendon, Richmond or Carlton.
Greg Swann then goes and makes it more complex saying that the Rowan Marshall mark will not be brought back in the future. That is exactly why the damn thing was brought in so Ben Keays point is a goal! Agree the Marshall mark should not have been called back due the amount of time taken, but the howlers need to be called back like the Ben Keays goal.
Now he is spending time selling the new draft “penalty” system. It should have been delayed at least 12 or 24 months for clubs to plan and prepare. His statement that the clubs knew it was coming is bollocks, they knew something was coming but only a vague idea of what it will look like. He has denied the Bassett suggestion that it will encourage tanking, not often I agree with Bassett.
Here is the current scenario as I understand it with Carlton and Cody Walker, if the ladder finishes as it currently stands. Richmond will and should make a bid for Walker (or any other Father-Son or academy prospect), they either get the player or another 2nd round pick. Assuming the Blues want Walker it will cost them picks 3 and 27, moving their next pick to round 3 while the Tigers drop to two and get an extra second round pick. Once the Blues prospects of reaching the top ten are done – and they virtually are – why would they not seek the bottom rung? This would still be an issue if it was delayed a year and Cody a year younger, but then at least the club can assess what resources go into him compared to other options. It is a bigger question for the academies and whether this will reduce the investment the clubs are making in them.
Pendle Buried (7%) vs Ginny the Tonic (93%)
A Thursday night blockbuster but we will have a stand in for one of the leading men with Scott Pendlebury left out. After a stunning performance on the weekend the club has decided five day breaks are too hard for him to back up. I understand it’s tough for any player to back up in five days and especially a 38 year old, but he never gets out of a jog, the opposition don’t lay a finger on him – surely he is up to it? In reality you need to protect your assets and there ain’t many more valuable than Pendles. Taking on the Hawks without him will be a challenge, they are a step up from the Blues and Bombers. Their linking smalls in Ginnivan and Watson are so creative, they have a great balance between attack and defense and the two ruck strategy has been highly effective. Interesting that the Pies have adopted the same so should make it interesting. Hawthorn get Sicily and Moore back this week, while the Pies also lose Howe, McReery and Membrey swings this in the Hawks favour but not discounting any team that has Nick Daicos to provide some magic.
Time for a Bevvy (13%) vs Action Jackson (87%)
The Dockers spoiled the Dog Party in the final round in the Loungeroom in 2025, can they exact some revenge. Luke Beveridge made more comments about the state of the game than his prospects this week – most of them accurate. Still likely to be missing English, Bont playing hurt, Libba still out. Not what you need facing flying Freo, who look even better with Jackson spending more time in the ruck. At full strength the Dogs are in this as apart from Melbourne Fremantle’s wins have been against lower ranked teams, but they will be without their unicorn and Freo’s is hard to stop.
Fog Lifted? (76%) vs Cat Killers (24%)
Another scheduling masterpiece from Josh with the Showdown going head-to-head with WB-Freo. Always a great contest and often going against the favoured side. Port stamped their improvement to declaw the Cats last week, while the Crows were fed to the Lions. Darcy Fogarty is a chance to return for the Crows, while Marshal will be in the mix for Port. Just think the Crows have a better balance across the lines whereas Port are dependent on their stars like Butters, Horne-Francis and Georgiades. If they get off the chain Port wins, however suspect the Crows can keep them under control and be the SA Champs.
Bombed Out (1%) vs The Allen Key (99%)
Did Essendon turn up their toes last week or were Collingwood that much more experienced and better – reckon a combination of both but expect a stronger effort this week. It will need to be against the premiers, who have their share of injury issues with Oscar Allen to spend a number of weeks in recovery. Not sure it will matter here in the Loungeroom, the Lions happy place in Melbourne.
Football 101 (81%) vs 2nd Cumming (19%)
The Eagles were served a lesson last week beaten by 101 points, they will need to show more resilience in such situations their 100 point battering for the year. The take on the Tigers who unveiled another newcomer last week in Sam Cumming who will line up for game number two after an impressive outing. Despite the pounding, expect the Eagles to win at home.
Blitzed (92%) vs By George (8%)
The Cats will be without Mr Fixit with Blicavs going down last week, as much as that contributed to the failure so did the resting of Sam De Koning. He could have filled in for Blicavs and might have been handy against Georgiades. They have another George to contend with this week, in Wardlaw. Pretty he is not, but will do whatever is needed to push his team forward. The Cats match him with Atkins and have few more that go well at the Cattery so they win.
The Traitors (21%) vs Minutes of Madness (79%)
The grudge match has arrived with Tom De Koning and Jack Silvagni to line up against the Blues. The reality is they both had offers from the Saints that could not be refused and the Blues quite rightly declined to match. Does that mean St Kilda overpaid? That is the cost to get players out of a club. Have they ruined the market? Not their problem. The Blues should be a challenge for the Saints and have been competitive in the last two weeks, but for a couple of minutes of madness at the start of the final quarter where both Collingwood and Fremantle tore them apart. In a year of few positives Matt Carroll has emerged as one of the Blues better players. They are capable of winning this, however can see Nasiaih deliver a couple of minutes of madness like Nick Daicos and Shai Bolton did in the last fortnight.
Brodie (96%) vs Max (4%)
As much a tale of two cities it is a tale of two rucks. Grundy and Gawn have been supreme this season, their battle in the middle will be crucial to this contest. Have loved watching both these teams attack with gusto so expect this to be a ripper. The Sydney forwards were potent last week, but up against an undersized defense. The Dees match up better especially if Petty returns. At the other end the Swans have been the stingiest defense in the competition as well as being the most aggressive with their run and gun style. How do the Dees clamp down on the likes of Blakey, Mills and Wicks? The Demons midfield has been a revelation and will meet its match against the likes of Heeney, Warner and McInerney. Suspect Jordan will get the task on Cosi. Can’t wait to see this one in the flesh! Suspect Sydney at home will have the edge.
Christian (87%) vs Clarrie (13%)
The two ex-Demons will come face-to-face in the middle of the Mansion. The Suns version was in scintillating form last week but did not have enough support around him. While Oliver was an important cog for the Giants in their win over North. On paper the Suns would appear to have the stronger line up and with just about the entire squad available, while the Giants still have a couple of key injuries still. But this game will not come down to personnel. The Suns need to win this and get momentum back, also to reverse their embarrassing record against the Giants. GWS have one 15 of their last 16 encounters and will be keen to make it one more. Not sure they will though, with one less day to recover from a tough game and the Suns are at home.
Track Time
We go right off Broadway this week with the Gold Nugget meeting in Bendigo, the main venue in Victoria. Great to see the meeting so well supported with big fields nominated in all the races, with most of them very open affairs. Winners won’t be easy to find but getting a couple will be worth it. For the feature we go to Adelaide for the SA Derby
Bendigo
A tough start to the day where Jareth (R1, #4) seems a good chance, well supported last start but fading out late. Drawn to get the run of the race. More than half the field having their first start in the second, one of them have to be snappy to beat Speed Machine (R2, #2) but the price is pretty skinny for a 2YO contest. It’s $7 the field in the next noting P Payne has engaged a senior rider on Damas (R3, #9) has good form and is well drawn. Based on that selection then have to go with Oak Beach (R4, #14) who beat it home last start and gets a handy 3kg claim. Trying to find reasons not to pick Merrigold (R5. #2) as the favourite here. She tends to win when the market disrespects her, looks well in here and very consistent. While the favoured pair look well suited in the next, reckon an each way bet on Dirty Grin (R6, #1) might have us smiling. Carried a big weight to win two starts back and freshened up after finishing lame last start.
A challenging opening for the quaddie with a full field to pick from, if Street Artist (R7, #12) can get close to its best then can win. Expecting improvement second up. It’s a step up from benchmark 74 but Gold Coast Belle (R8, #7) was so impressive last start and looks well up to this. Verdad (R9, #12) is consistent but winning is not a strong suit. He gets his chance here, drawn well and in on the minimum. Hopefully we can celebrate the quaddie with Stoli Bolli (R10, #7) saluting. Closed well last start and always around the mark.
Quaddie
As tough a quaddie as I have encountered, we’ll be pretty wide and ride home a bit skiny if we are still afloat!
Leg 1 – 2, 3, 11, 12, 13, 15
Leg 2 – 3, 7, 11, 15
Leg 3 – 2, 5, 6, 8, 11, 12
Leg 4 – 7, 12
288 Combinations, a $30 investment will return 10.4% of the dividend
Morphettville
Race 8 – SA Derby (G1, 2500m, 3YO SW)
Accidental Bid (17 em1) is fresh on the scene and favourite but is not guaranteed a start. Could not have been more impressive in winning last start with J Allen staying aboard. Almost as impressive and in a better race was Silvasista (15), distance no query doesn’t have the convictions that a few others do. The wide alley is no help but After Summer (14) ran so well in the ATC Oaks she is one of the main chances here. Allen has a get out clause and is also booked on Strictly Business (13) she won the the VRC Oaks over this distance, needs to improve but her best is good enough. Wary of Kaye Jay (3) good in the ATC Derby and Zahra stays on board after riding Engine of War (8) last week.
Selections – 17 – 15 – 14 – 13 – 3
Go Blues,
Cheers, Sal
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