Greetings All
The AFL goes into its 7th week of the season and we finally have a proper round of footy! Not that last weekend did not conjure up more than enough discussion points. Unfortunately many of them are about umpires and umpiring. On the Zak Butters – Nick Foot incident there are no winners in the situation. On reflection the umpire should have asked the player to repeat what he said, Butters would have then had the chance to retract and apologise or repeat it and then let the umpire decide. However while not at the same level as Foot, I have experienced similar situations and there is a hell of a lot going on. As for the discussion around Nick’s day job, it is a complete furphy here. While I understand the noise, he comments only on horse racing and while AFL umpires are still part-time it is tough to tell them what they can and can’t do with their full time profession. While plenty may disagree, he is a good, experienced umpire and know how hard they are to attract, the AFL had to support him.
The others are about umpiring. Let’s hope the focus on Josh Rachele’s rugby pass last Thursday is the straw that breaks the camel’s back. Josh was not really at fault for committing such an action as shuffling the ball two-handed has become an art form. As a fan I want to see the skills of the game used and adhered to, however I suspect the directions to the adjudicators that moving the game on is more important.
Then there is the great idea of moving the game quickly with the last possession out of bounds rule. All sounds great in theory until umpires decide they can make a decision and go to video to check if a ball has come off an unsuspecting toe or heel. It is not only a waste of time, it is inconsistent, an inadvertent toe on the ball often generated by a smartarse opponent should not be deemed a possession in the same way a flick off the fingers or arm is not. No matter what though, we should not be delaying the game for such decisions – if in doubt just throw the ball in.
We have nine games across the country, somewhat marred by some more ridiculous fixtures where we have two ripping games going head to head on Friday night. Either the league’s direction is extremely poor or it is well over time to get Josh Bowler a different role.
Will Wayward (12%) vs Get Nicked (88%)
Has there been a better first 100 games than what Nick Daicos has delivered? If so I can’t recall it. He has been a star from game one and making his team better all the way through. It’s a big game for the Pies taking on the Blues being on the wrong side of the ledger and with plenty of naysayers having a crack. The Blues also have plenty of naysayers but for the most part have proved them correct. A better performance against the Crows and the return of Weitering and Dean to defence gives them a chance against a battling forward line. However the Blues forwards are not much better. Will Hayward comes back and needs to be the pressure player he was at Sydney, plenty of knocks on Charlie what has come back for him hasn’t been any better. The bigger issue for the Blues is that they are a delicate bunch and have only won twice against Collingwood since 2008. It does not take much for them to lose any daring and momentum, then even harder to wrest it back. Without Sidebottom it is the Blues chance to get one back, however the Pies love to honour their greats and Nick is already one of them. Expect that to drive them and be good enough over the Blues.
Blitzkrieg (75%) vs Broken English (25%)
300 games in and commentators are still referring to Mark Blicavs athletics background, you don’t play that many games without having a bit of footy nous. In addition he plays in any position where the Cats need to plug a hole – even the ruck. Which is a hole their opponents this week need to fill with Tim English still on the injury list. The Battle of Domestic Pets is critical for both teams. Geelong do not have the dominant rucks that the Hawks had last week that helped topple the Dogs, but they have been good at home against strong opposition. That home ground advantage should help them over the line unless Bevo can find another left field solution to cover English.
Curwhen? (98%) vs In Like Finn (2%)
Big Cox was spot on in lambasting the scheduling of this game, it is every bit as enticing as the Cats-Bullodgs encounter and deserves clear air. His Swans do have a strong recent record against the Giants and a firing on all cylinders bar one. With Charlie Curnow yet to provide any real value apart from soaking up a good defender. For the Giants, Finn Callaghan continues to drive his team forward; they were better in attack last week but have lost Cadman again. Expected a great test for Sydney last week, passing it with flying colours. The Giants won’t make it easy but they are still missing key personnel so expect the Swans to keep their perch atop the ladder.
A Dimma View (98%) vs Deestructors (2%)
The Bombers got their first scalp of the year beating the Demons with some well-planned coaching and good execution. They head to the Gold Coast who have lost their last two and beaten around contest and pressure. They get Petracca back which helps but lose Anderson. Getting back to the Mansion should have them back on the winners list.
Oh Dear (99%) vs Foot and Mouth (1%)
Will the Hawks bring Calsher Dear in to replace the injured Mabior Chol? Not that it will really matter as they will be too good for Port at the MCG.
Throws (91%) vs Deck the Hall (9%)
The Saints return to Adelaide after their victory over Port last week, suspect this opponent will prove more difficult. We need to go back to 2019 for the last time St Kilda hosted the Crows in Melbourne, just another vagary of the fixture that needs to be corrected. Plenty has been made of the Crow Throw being back, until the officiating enforces the rules why wouldn’t they continue! They had a purple patch against the Blues last week that sealed the game for them, St Kilda should present stronger opposition with some of their younger players becoming key players, none more so than Max Hall. He is courageous, talented plus a little bit cheek adding class to their on ball brigade. The extra three days rest will be in Adelaide’s favour as will sleeping in their own beds, that should be enough to swing the game their way.
Taking a Trembath (97%) vs Coming up Short (3%)
The Kangas and Tigers both won 5 games last season, they appear to have gone in opposite directions this year. Unsurprisingly really, the North boys have played together for longer and Xerri aside have their key players available. The Tigers are younger and are missing their two most important players in Lynch and Nankervis. For that reason their paths will remain in different directions this week.
Essendone! (6%) vs All Neale (94%)
The Dees face the premiers after their shock loss to the Bombers last week. Getting back to the MCG will be important as will be to perform. The venue holds no fear for the Lions who will be celebrating Lachie Neale’s 300th game. Still remembering his goal from outside 50 in the big one! Max Gawn will be keen to get back to form after last week and it should be a good contest with Draper and Fort – can the two rucks wear him down? Will also be a great test for the new look Demon midfield up against the Ashcrofts, Bailey, Neale, Dunkley and more. Just think the Lions are going too well for the Demons at the moment.
The Original (2%) vs The Best (98%)
West Coast might be the original team from WA but they run a distant second to their crosstown rivals in Freo. Suspect there will be a fair gap between at the end of this one..
Track Time
We heard the sound of balloons bursting as Sir Delius proved too strong over 2000m to give Autumn Glow her first defeat. Suspect the extra 400m saw her out, we will see which way CJW goes with her. It’s the final day of the Championships at Randwick while the main meeting in Victoria heads to the peninsula with the Mornington Cup being contested for a ticket into the Caulfield Cup in October.
Mornington
Inclined to give the opener a miss with a bunch of babies and a number them first starters, if you’re daring the Ciaran Maher first starter Blue Meteor (R1, #3) might represent some value. Street Artist (R2, #13) returns after a solid spring campaign. Unsurprisingly sticking with the Freedmans and Stackhouse in the next with No Surprise (R3, #6). The 4th is a wide open affair with no strong opinion, perhaps Live (R4, #6) is fair each way value. Wary of anything trained by Graham Begg so interested in This Time Girl (R5, #7). Wonder Boy (R6, #3) was very good in Sydney and looks well suited on his home deck.
While the favourite looks a great chance in the quaddie opener prefer it did not have an outside alley, so going with Miewa (R7, #1) from the inside with J Mott onboard. The Cup is a tough one to sort out with plenty of chances, sticking with Kings Valley (R8, #15) but will be a few more in the quaddie. Might need a few in the Hareeba too. Top pick is Recon (R9, #17) a 50% strike rate is pretty good here. We close out on the favourite Duchess Zou (R10, #10) who just looks ready to win 3rd up.
Quaddie
Looks a tough one but worth it if we can snare it.
Leg 1 – 1, 2, 4, 7, 12
Leg 2 – 5, 7, 12, 15, 16em
Leg 3 – 7, 8, 12, 16, 17
Leg 4 – 6, 10
250 Combinations, a $30 investment will return 12% of the dividend
Randwick
Race 7 – Champagne Stakes (G1, 1600m, 2YO SW)
Campione D’italia (1) was a strong winner of the Sires and looks well suited here, we have to pay the JMac tax but he knows how to steer them. Southend (4) has been running a grade below but is undefeated, Miss Chanel (10) ran well in the Sires and Zambales (3) gets the chance to break his maiden stepping out to the mile.
Selections – 1-4-10-3
Race 9 – The All Aged Stakes (G1, 1400m, WFA)
The sprinters and milers collide here and while Jimmysstar (2) is seen as a sprinter his record over this distance is superb. Giga Kick (1) has had one crack at it for a win and is a tough campaigner. The favourite Angel Capital (8) looks like it is carrying the JMac tax, good in the William Reid but not sure how that form stacks up here. Fangirl (11) always has them and is a chance if the track stays firm.
Selections – 2-1-8-11
Go Blues,
Cheers, Sal
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