Sal’s Preview – Round 5: Let’s Gather in the Autumn Glow

Greetings All,

 

It’s the SA Charity Round and an interesting one at that being the first time all teams will play on the same weekend for the year.  Also the last year of the original agreement for the location of Gather Round – it has been a blazing success for South Australians.  Is it time to move it on?  Plenty of advantages to do so, the proximity of everything, the investment made on infrastructure but is the imbalance to the competition worth it?  Reckon there are more things to fix than gather round.

 

The favourites are faring better now, with a 20-15 overall standing still that is 43% with the underdogs. How will it look after Gather Round where it looks like we some very lopsided games?

 

Now for the games where we have looked for similarly monikered clubs in the SA local leagues.

 

Keith (97%) vs Imperial (3%)

You don’t have to go far across the Victorian border to find your first Crows, while the Blues at Imperial (Murray Bridge) are having more success than the Carlton variety.  Not sure how this warranted the lead off game for a signature round of footy.  Even if Carlton had any semblance of form the Crows have owned them at Adelaide Oval with game virtually over by quarter time in the last two occasions.  Might be great for the Adelaide fans but not much to keep the hordes watching.  Can’t see the script going any differently, the Blues have no Weitering, no pace and not much strategy.  The Crows to kick off the round with victory as prescribed.

 

Strathalbyn (22%) vs None Yet (78%)

We find Magpies down on the Adelaide ‘ninch, while the Dockers are yet to have a club in SA pick them up.  The Pies should get Pendlebury and Daicos back, the question will be whether they are genuinely ready?  Angus Anderson displayed his angry side laying eight tackles at VFL level to earn a debut.  They take on Freo who are as healthy as any club at the moment and in good form.  If Pendles and Daicos are in and fit the Pies can win, however suspect Freo will still have too much strength in the middle and a forward line that will challenge Collingwood’s lack of height in defense.

 

Victor Harbour (3%) vs Mitchell Park (97%)

We go a bit further down the Flerieu to find the Victor Harbour Kangaroos, while a bit further north in the southern suburbs the Mitchell Park Lions play in the other AFL (Adelaide Footy League).  North are a work in progress but are certainly making some with plenty of their high draft picks now having 40-50 games under their belt.  They drew the short straw again playing the Lions for Gather Round.  It was an easy kill for Brisbane last year, not quite as easy this year but they still win.

 

Kapunda (8%) vs Berri (92%)

The Bombers of Kapunda are a few years older than those of Essendon, celebrating their 160th year in 2026.  While up the Murray the Berri Demons are a successful club in the Riverland League.  Essendon put up a reasonable show last week, in reality though the game was over early.  Can they take that to Melbourne for four quarters?  Even if they could, they have no one to counter the extraordinary dominance that Max Gawn has displayed so far this season.

 

Port Noarlunga (59%) vs Southern Mallee (41%)

Hard to find Swans in SA but thought a water-themed mascot would work so went with the  Cockledivers of Port Noarlunga.  The amalgamation of Pinaroo and Lameroo in the River Murray League formed Southern Mallee and adopted the Suns as their mascot.  This is one of the most intriguing games of the round and does not deserve to be off Broadway, nevertheless they are playing on the parade at Norwood.  The Suns were poor in the contest last week against Melbourne, their effort will need to be better against Sydney.  The Swans lose Sheldrick but should regain Rosas Jnr, they will not be phased by the confines of Norwood.  Expect Hardwick to relish it and expect the Suns to respond strongly and get this in a close one.

 

Modbury (69%) vs Plympton (31%)

The Hawks of Modbury play in the other AFL and are the oldest club in SA dating back to 1862.  Across the other side of Adelaide the Plympton Bulldogs ply their craft in the same competition. The AFL Hawks and Bulldogs deserve to be on Broadway and get the featured timeslot too.  At the end of this one of these teams will have an unwanted record of never having a win in Gather Round.  While Sicily and Gunston are good to go there is an overall concern on the Hawks with a short break after a torrid game against the Cats.  The Dogs though have their own issues, especially losing Tim English who has been so important to their structure.  There is some chance Ed Richards gets up for this game but suspect that will be at some risk and without Libba there will be plenty on Bont’s shoulders.  As good as those shoulders are expect Hawthorn will just have a bit more talent to go through the middle and take this one.

 

Cowell (99%) vs  Hatherleigh (1%)

Over on the Eyre Peninsula the Cowell Cats play in the Eastern Eyre League, while the titleholders in the Mid South East are the Hatherleigh Eagles.  Geelong should make up for Monday’s disappointment with a win over West Coast.

 

The Baseball Club (97%) vs BSR (3%)

As far as research went there are no footy Giants in SA, however the Adelaide franchise in the ABL (Baseball) competition are the Giants.  3 flags in 4 years was pretty good from Richmond, the Tigers of the BSR variety are going for their 7th on the trot in the North Eastern Football League.  BSR represents Brinkworth, Spalding and Redhill regions north of Clare.  With Ryan out for the Tigers the ruck stocks are almost bare, while the Giants could see the returns of Bedford, Buckley, Cadman and Daniels.  Even if none of them came up, would still expect the Giants to take this one out. 

 

Ironbank Cherry Gardens (32%) vs Kingston (68%)

Hard to find any clubs that have taken up the Power moniker however did find the Thunderers from Ironbank Cherry Gardens use the lightning bolt logo too.  While there are plenty of Saints, was taken by those from Kingston (home of the big lobster) in the South East also sharing its name with the local council that presides over Moorabbin!  While Port has two wins, they would have expected four given they were the bottom four teams from 2025.  The Saints finished one spot above them and have one less win but have played tougher opposition.  Both have long injury lists but Port’s injuries are to key players and leaders.  If the Saints are going to make a mark on the competition they win this.

 

Track Time

The spotlight is fairly and squarely on Randwick with Day 2 of the Championships.  We saw a potential superstar last week in Sheza Alibi demolish the field in the Doncaster, this week Autumn Glow lines up in the Lizzie going for 11 from 11.  Let’s hope we see them clash in the Spring, would love it to be in the Cox Plate at Flemington.  However the Golden Eagle money might lure the Alibi that way.  Meanwhile Caulfield is this week’s venue in Melbourne with some very open affairs. 

 

Caulfield

The opener is a tough one and while there is some concern about Mr Bannock (R1, #11) coming back from 2400m, he stays down in relative weight with a very good claiming apprentice on board.  That apprentice is Jackson Radley and we are looking for him to get an early double on Ka Ying Cheer (R2, #2) who was scratched from last week.  Usually beer and sanga time when the babies run, however will be watching the market around the Moody-Coleman first starter in Oak Lightning (R3, #4).  Well bred and won his last jump out.  Dirty Look (R4, #13) is only having start four but looks progressive and well placed here, could be a bit short in such an open race.  At more of an each way play noting the engagement of M Zahra on Manifest the Milli (R4, #2) a last start winner.  O’Brien and Zahra team up again with Gold Coast Belle (R5, #13) she takes a step up here but looks well placed.  Might be a big day for Zahra he rides the favourite Pondalowie (R6, #3).  While she looks well suited, there are some other very talented girls running here.

 

He rides a maiden in the opening leg of the quaddie in Amazake (R7, #4).  Was handy in the spring, ran very well fresh in the Alister Clark and maiden status keeps the weight off.  Plenty more in the opening leg.  An interesting field lines up in the Anniversary Vase with both Waller and Maher kicking off the campaigns of their stayers before they head for some northern riches and sunshine.  Those are Middle Earth (R8, #1), Sayedaty Sadaty (R8, #4) and Etna Rosso (R8, #5), noting another stayer transferred from Waller to Maher in Land Legend (R8, #3) is second up and gets Zahra.  Overall though I am taken by Taken (R8, #12) to reverse the result from last start where track bias favoured the winner.  Burma Star (R9, #3) was dual accepted and is scratched from Sydney for this and has the talent to get it done.  Hoping First Chorus (R10, #9) has us singing to the front of the quaddie queue, the Smith-Mott might be just getting their eye in before the ‘bool. 

 

Quaddie

A couple of open races and an odds-on pop that looks too short makes for an interesting four race challenge! 

 

Leg 1 – 1, 2, 3, 4, 6

Leg 2 – 2, 6, 8, 12, 13

Leg 3 – 1, 3, 6, 9

Leg 4 – 2, 9, 14

300 Combinations, a $30 investment will return 10% of the dividen

 

Randwick

 

Race 5 – ATC Australian Oaks (G1, 2400m, 3YO Fillies SW)

After Summer (2) beat the favourite Ohope Wins (1) home in the Vinery Stud and gets to her preferred distance now at a much more attractive price.  Reckon her biggest danger is Profoundly (3) who was a strong winner last week the other one out of that race that is way over the odds is Satono Invader (9) who ran home strongly.

Selections – 2-3-1-9

 

Race 7 – Sydney Cup (G1, 3200m, HCP)

A tough race to make selections in, but Melbourne Cup form has to be good for this so going with Valiant King (6).  Form doesn’t look great but gets back on to a good surface and under handicap conditions.  River of Stars (1) is the other – 4th in the Melbourne Cup and 2nd in the Caulfield is good form for this.  Of the others  Litzdeel (14) is in a consistent vein of form and down in the weights and Mr Monaco (11) has won his last two but does have a wide barrier to contend with.

Selections – 6-1-14-11

 

Race 8 – Queen of the Turf Stakes (G1, 1600m, Fillies & Mares WFA)

With Autumn Glow running in the Lizzie this is loaded with quality mares that rarely run against their own sex.  We saw what Treasurethe Moment (3) did when she came back to mares grade.  She will have to get past Pride of Jenni (1) who was only just grabbed in the final bound of the Australian Cup, anything close to that performance wins this.  Idle Flyer (8) will be the one charging home late if they go too hard and must respect Lady Shenandoah (2) whose best can win this and gets JMac back on board. 

Selections – 1-8-2-3

 

Race 9 – Queen Elizabeth Stakes (G1, 2000m, WFA)

She might be the best in Australia and the price indicates that so cannot go past Autumn Glow (7).  The stablemate Aeliana (8) has been winning everything else so is next best, then Dubai Honour (1) and Sir Delius (2).

Selections – 7-8-1-2

 

Go Blues, 

 

Cheers, Sal

 

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