Sal’s Preview – Opening Round

Greetings All

Alfred has made a mess of the AFL plans for the opening round but overall the only possible outcome was the postponement of those games. It leaves us with only two matches to open the season but they’re both intriguing for a variety of reasons. Looking at the competition there are so many with the chance to go All-The-Way with last year’s champs at the head of the list. Hard to argue with but they do have a Joe Daniher sized hole to plug. The previous champs are high in the opinions, a healthy list will take them a long as long as Pendles and Sidey don’t fall off the perch. The Blues look to have all the pieces but are already beset by injuries – take them on trust. Last year’s vanquished have been hit even harder by injury as they were after their previous GF loss, how will they look under the leadership of Big Cox.

Geelong will get their perennial leg up into the finals, will Bailey Smith be the piece to take them to the flag? For Fremantle it is time to deliver – if not a flag they must become contenders. Were the Hawks a surprise packet that caught the opposition by surprise or is it a sustainable method – trends change in the game and small forwards have become more important they might just be real. Adam Kingsley nearly got them to the big dance again – not sure if Jake Stringer is the missing piece in the puzzle but they have plenty of other talent. The Crows took some of their talent and get Thilthorpe back as an almost new recruit. The defence is steady while the forwards with Thilthorpe, Fogarty, Walker, Rankine will present challenges for the opposition. Some talking up the hopes of Port Adelaide – reckon it might be a Carr crash. Just don’t see how they have addressed their defensive issues.

The Suns just need to make finals – Dimma has got his troops in – they young guns have a few seasons under their belt. It’s Time! Melbourne is a very tough mob to evaluate – they were ordinary in 2024 but if Oliver and Petracca are fit and firing then they are dangerous. The question will remain as to where the goals will come from. The Dogs are always considered a chance however a disconcerting early injury list might put them behind the Eight-Ball early. Brad Scott has had time to shape the Bombers now, this season might not bring success but suspect we will see a more consistent and predictable outfit. The Saints have also copped injuries early, while not a contender expect them to be feisty. The Roos, Tigers and Eagles are still looking to develop their list. How Richmond fare will be of most interest given the experienced talent they surrendered to bring in draft talent. Will it be the model for the future?

Let’s take a look at the opening games!

The Horseless Carriage (48%) v A New Battle (52%)

While a long way north, Alfred looms over this encounter with his tail likely to bring rain. The biggest change for Sydney is the change in coach with Big Cox taking over from Horse, we will wait and see how the dynamics play out. We have seen them have very successful transitions in the past. Sydney will be relieved to have Grundy and Papley available with injury ruling out a few others, the Hawks have a healthy list being able to leave out veterans in Gunston and Breust. A new look defence including Barrass and Battle should stiffen the Hawks who will face different Sydney attack with Tom McCartin looking like the lynchpin. The SCG gives them the advantage, but suspect missing Gulden, Mills, Cunningham and McDonald will give Hawthorn the chance to draw first blood.

All The Kingley’s Men (39%) vs Don’t Pay the Perryman (61%)

Well, the Perryman got to the other side and will line up for Collingwood against his former club GWS. This one can expect a great impact from Alfred on Sunday afternoon in what should be a hard-fought contest. GWS are missing a number of big forwards in Hogan, Riccardi and Stringer which might be to their advantage on a wet day. The loss of Tom Green doesn’t help. The Pies are very good travellers and go well in heavy traffic. While the Giants at home are compelling the Pies look in better shape to win this.

Track Time

It’s a busy time with the Melbourne Autumn nearing a crescendo while the Sydney Carnival steps up. We have two top level events in each city on Saturday then the Adelaide Cup on Monday. Flemington host Super Saturday with the time-honoured Newmarket plus the newly crowned Group 1 All-Stat Mile. At Randwick they host their Guineas and the Canterbury Stakes.

Flemington

Race 7 – The All-Star Mile (G1, 1600m, WFA)

Not too many stars here with on seven starters in what looks like a match race between Mr Brightside (1) and Another Wil (4). Stick with the veteran performer or the up and comer – there is so little between them, plonking for the up and comer but maybe only because of the price. Light Infantry Man (3) has a win over this journey and should improve 2^nd up and Atishu (7) is proven at Flemington. Tom Kitten (2) is running well but unplaced at both starts here.

Selections – 4-1-3-7

Race 9 – Newmarket Handicap (G1, 1200m, HCP)

Not a full field but a typical Newmarket with many chances. Another sway to a newcomer in Gatsby’s (15), scratched last week for this gets in on the minimum and the outside barrier down the straight. Although that has not as advantageous as it used to be. The best of Joliestar (5) wins this – is she there? Same for Growing Empire (7) possibly the most talented but the handicapper might have got him and have to put in Rey Magnerio (6) who rarely runs a bad race. Could have missed the lot here!

Selections – 15-5-7-6

Quaddie

The Newmarket is a tough 3^rd leg but we get a couple of skinny ones before that.

Leg 1 – 1. 4

Leg 2 – 1

Leg 3 – 1, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 14, 15

Leg 4 – 1, 7, 8

48 Combinations, $30 investment could yield 62.5% of the dividend.

Randwick

Race 7 – Randwick Guineas (G1, 1600m, 3YO SW)

Starts and ends with Broadsiding (1) but who will be behind him? The market says there are only three others and putting the filly Aeliana (9) ahead of Swiftfalcon (2) and Linebacker (3). Really just a race to watch or have the favourite one out in the quaddie!

Selections – 1-9-2-3

Race 8 – Canterbury Stakes (G1, 1300m, WFA)

One of the races that proves we have too many Group 1 races in Australia. The distance might not be quite right but Ceolwulf (1) is the best of this lot and can win. Magic Time (10), Switzerland (12) and Sunshine in Paris (9) will all be thereabouts if he can’t run them down.

Selections – 1-10-12-9

Aaaah Footy great to be back,

Cheers, Sal