Sal’s Preview 2025: Oaks Day Preview – I’ve Got a Good Feeling!

Greetings All,

 

There is no race like the Melbourne Cup and once again it delivered so many great stories.  It’s the build up and questions that are asked beforehand and answered on the day.  Who can run the trip?  How good are the internationals?  Which Jockeys can handle the moment?  There is no other race like it.

 

And the result!  The only Australian bred horse in the field and progressing from a maiden at Camperdown in January 2024, being sold online later that year and winning the cups double.  Looks more than capable of progressing to the WFA ranks and a Cox Plate at Flemington would suit him beautifully in about 50 weeks from now.

 

I was there when Jamie Melham was taken from the track unconscious.  She had plenty of challenges getting back and was not getting the pick of the rides, many doubted that she had regained the courage to get through some of the tougher gaps to win and was doing it tough.  4 winners in the 2024 Carnival was the sign that she was back.  The Caulfield Cup was a terrific ride, the Melbourne Cup ride was brilliant not just for the timing but for the courage and desire she and her horse delivered to get through those gaps and win.

 

The training combination of Tony and Calvin McEvoy are so deserving of this success.    Ever since Tony went out on his own after working in the Hayes empire for many years he has built their business.  Making the decision to leave South Australia where he was the leading trainer and make the move to Victoria.  All paid off on Tuesday! 

 

Flemington

 

Oaks Day should see an almost perfect track at Flemington with drying weather and not too much wind.  Rail out 6 metres as per normal given the wear from the previous 2 days of racing.  

 

Race 1 – TCL Trophy (BM70, 1700m, 3YO+ Fillies and Mares HCP)

 

JMac will be keen to add to his tally and can here on Full Hao (12).  I Only Wish (8) closed well last start and will appreciate the extra trip, Empire of Pain (10) was a last start winner and First Chorus (11) could also be singing the song at race completion.

 

Selections – 12-8-10-11

 

Race 2 – Subzero Handicap (BM90, 1400m, Grey HCP)

 

It is a very good field in the grey’s race and JMac rides the favourite Getafix (5).  At the price prefer to have something each way on Chakado (10) who has an excellent fresh record.  Statuario (1) comes back in trip but has the class as does Berkshire Shadow (4)

 

Selections – 10-5-1-4

 

Race 3 – Inglis Bracelet (1600m, 3YO+ Fillies and Mares SWP)

 

Keep Your Cool (4) was scratched Tuesday for this and give Zahra a chance to get another win.  Will have get past Oh Diamond Lil (1) coming back a grade or two.  Verona Rose (2) also comes back in grade, as does Sweltering (7) who is sweating on her first win.

 

Selections – 4-1-2-7

 

Race 4 – Good Friday Appeal Trophy (BM90, 1800m, 4YO+ HCP)

 

Zambardo (12) is in very good form and can give Jamie her next winner.  Liberami (7) was 4th in the Seymour Cup, the first three have all run well since.  Al Duca (9) will give them something to catch and Shockletz (11) is up to this.

 

Selections – 12-7-9-11

 

Race 5 – Chester Manifold Stakes (Listed, 1600m, HCP)

 

Enxuto (10) backs up from an excellent 3rd on Saturday, this looks a good option.  Oh Too Good (6) wasn’t quite last start but capable of bouncing back.  The Tasmanian Cartoon Graveyard (11) is in good form and can challenge as can Detonator Jack (2) has won for a while but should be suited to Flemington and gets some weight relief.

 

Selections – 10-6-11-2

 

Race 6 – Melbourne Cup Carnival Country Final (BM80, 1600m, HCP)

 

Always one of the toughest races to pick.  Kengero (2) chased a good one home last start and is up to this.  Guerite (6) got over the top of Big Sexy (11)  at Bendigo no reason why he wouldn’t again, but the latter was well supported and expect will be competitive.  Lake Vostok (15) gets significant weight relief and C Williams.  Plenty more in the quaddie!

 

Selections – 2-6-11-15

 

Race 7 – Red Roses Stakes (G3, 1100m, 3YO Fillies SWP)

 

What a ripping race this promises to be!  Thinking the outside barriers will be an advantage down the straight so going with Point Barrow (7) over Akaysha (9), the advantage Akaysha (9) might have is experience down the straight in the Cap’d’Antibes.  Inkaruna (1) was also good in the same race gets Zahra and a wide draw.  If the inside is better then Surf’s Up (10) and Tres Magnifique (16) are good chances.

 

Selections – 7-9-1-10

Race 8 – VRC Oaks (G1, 2500m, 3YO Fillies SW)

 

Reckon we might see the same exacta from the Wakeful with Getta a Good Feeling (1) to give M Zahra another Group 1 win and Danny O’Brien another Oaks.  If she doesn’t get the distance then there is not much doubt that Strictly Business (7) will.  The Pearls (2) was terrific against the boys in the Spring Champion.  Waller/McDonald is a handy combination so will be right in this.  Spicy Lu (3) got Nash on last start and delivered, he stays aboard and should be competitive.

 

Selections – 1-7-2-3

Race 9 – Century Stakes (Listed, 1000m, SWP)

 

With the track likely to be upgraded, suspect Nadal (2) might wait for the rain on Saturday, otherwise probably top pick.  Worried by the inside draw but sticking with Rey Magnerio (1) fantastic at Caulfield trusting Jye to weave the path.  Not much between the mares Tremble (15) and Stokke (14).  Coleman (5) has not won for a long time but has the class.  Moved from Waller to Clinton McDonald, the market will let us know if he is ready!   

 

Selections – 2-1-15-14-5

 

Quaddie

 

A dual strategy with a hot pot in the Oaks and what to do about Nadal?  If he is scratched either leave Rey one out or add 14 and 15.

 

Quaddie 1 – Not such good feeling

 

Leg 1 – 2, 3, 6, 10, 11, 15

Leg 2 – 1, 7, 9

Leg 3 – 2, 3, 5, 7 

Leg 4 – 1, 2

 

144 Combinations, a $20 winning investment will return 13.89% of the dividend.

 

Quaddie 2 – Feeling good

 

Leg 1 – 2, 3, 6, 10, 11, 15

Leg 2 – 1, 7, 9

Leg 3 – 1 

Leg 4 – 1, 2

 

36 Combinations, a $30 winning investment will return 83.33% of the dividend.

 

Get that Good Feeling!

 

Cheers, Sal

 

 

To return to the www.footyalmanac.com.au  home page click HERE

 

Our writers are independent contributors. The opinions expressed in their articles are their own. They are not the views, nor do they reflect the views, of Malarkey Publications.

 

Do you enjoy the Almanac concept?
And want to ensure it continues in its current form, and better? To help keep things ticking over please consider making your own contribution.

 

Become an Almanac (annual) member – CLICK HERE