Greetings All
There are two critical games this weekend and neither of them are in the AFL. First of all the Matildas take on the might of Japan in the Asian Cup final on Saturday night. It will be a difficult assignment given the manner in which Nadeshiko Japan have dealt with all comers so far in the tournament. The Matildas are tough and resilient so let’s hope for a bit of Kerr and Fowler magic to get it done.
The other is a VFL game, the first for the Tasmania Devils as they host Coburg in the season opener at North Hobart. Unfortunately the skipper Robbie Fox has been ruled out of the historic encounter. A capacity crowd is expected to be on hand in an all-ticketed affair. (Something that may get attention in the weeks to come.)
We do have seven lesser AFL fixtures to consider.
Bomber Bullies (85%) vs Lion Tamers (15%)
The Hawks and Swans have won both their games last week, however none of the form from those games would appear conclusive. The Hawks dealt with Essendon as would be expected while Sydney faced a Brisbane team missing many of their best. Sydney will be missing two of their best this week in Gulden and Heeney, do they have the depth to cover them? While the replacements don’t inspire, Cox has plenty of magnets to move around, suspect Callum Mills could get a shift into the middle. For all the rivalry built up the Hawthorn-Essendon game was bruise free so the Hawks are a healthy team. The Sydney defense has been miserly so far, can they transfer that to the larger MCG against a forward line with multiple avenues to goal. It’s the same at the other end where Amartey and McDonald are getting more opportunities with the focus on Charlie Curnow. The Hawks do have a number of defensive options to cover all the threats with Barrass, Battle, Sicily and more. Plenty of questions on the Hawthorn midfield but they have a good chance to split the honours and if they do I suspect they will come out on top in what promises to be a ripping contest.
Life of Rileys (50%) vs Speaking English (50%)
Riley Thilthorpe looms a huge presence in 2026 as an elite forward and more than handy backup ruckman which could be important not having to play a second ruck. It spells doom for Reilly O’Brien whose place appears to be taken by the impressive Lachlan McAndrew. He will get a good test from another in form ruckman in Tim English. The Dogs have been so impressive in both games continuing on their scoring frenzy. It will be a great test of the Adelaide defense without Mark Keane. Mind you they have plenty of options at the other end plus the return of Izak Rankine, the Bulldog defense has looked OK so far but this is the acid test. It will come down to the contest in the middle and the Dogs have so many aces, while the Crows have plenty of options. Another prime time special where suspect the home ground advantage should help get the Crows home.
The Lynch Pin (3%) vs On Tracc (97%)
Plenty of focus on Tom Lynch’s missed shots against the Blues, somewhat last in the conversation was how poor the collective kicking at goal was from everyone on the night. The wind played havoc and most of his shots were from long and wide. He will need to be much straighter to have any chance for the Tigers to eclipse the Suns. The addition of Petracca looks to have made them a genuine chance for 2026 and they will beat Richmond.
Dog Bitten (78%) vs Hollering (22%)
TDK started well against Max last week but come the second half he was hollering for a Marshall, trust he will be available for the Saints this week as they head to GWS. They have their own demons to deal with, beaten up by the Bulldogs again. The Giants at home will be tough for the Saints and expect Lyon to return to type and try to lock it down. Adam Kingsley will also have plenty of ammunition from last week and expect his team to hit back hard. He will be looking for a much better defensive effort so it could get a bit dour, add the expected deluge will it be first score wins? If so expect it to be the Giants.
Cat Scratched (90%) vs Latrelle Movement (10%)
Freo showed their best is very good, however the gap with its worst was on show as the Cats came back to beat them. They host the Demons who played a great game against the Saints. Latrelle Pickett showed he will be an exciting addition to the team. It is somewhat in the shadow of Max Gawn. While Max doesn’t get everything right, his workrate and ruck skill are second to none. His effort last week was supreme where simply “blew up” his nominated heir apparent. He will be up against a double act this week. Fremantle back at home should be good enough to get it done.
Carr Crash (85%) vs Mr Darcy (15%)
Port and Essendon were both disappointing last week. How does Josh Carr address it? Multiple changes or trust in the team to be better. The Bombers simply need to defend better. They would have been encouraged with the returns of Darcy Parish and Ben McKay. Suspect these two will be in the lower third of the ladder. Port should win this at home.
Mini Final (21%) vs Chillin’ with Dylan (79%)
A big test for Andrew McQualter and the Eagles against the Roos at home. Another two expected to be in the bottom third both teams will be keen to show their fans they are on the right track. North did that last week with a couple of players standing out including ex-Swan Dylan Stevens. The Eagles did manage a reasonable score against the Suns but suspect a couple of engines were shut down. Anything close to last week’s effort has the Roos taking this one.
Track Time
The Valley comes to Caulfield this week with the running of the William Reid Stakes plus an impressive support program. The spotlight though goes fairly and squarely to Rosehill with the Golden Slipper and another four races at the top level. Unsurprisingly they are about to be inundated so we need to tread carefully.
Caulfield
The rail is back in the true position and a fine day is predicted, expecting all will have a chance. Which doesn’t help in the opener which looks a tough start. The ex Hong Kong gallopper Ka Ying Cheer (R1, #6) has impressed in his two runs here but might come up too short. Like the engagement of J Mott on Wolfy (R1, #8), we haven’t seen his best for a while but gets down in the weights and is up to this. The claim for J Radley gives Mr Bannock (R2, #9) a great chance in the distance event. The babies go around in the next and would usually give it a miss, but intrigued by the magnificently named Fawlty Affairs (R3, #3) making his way down the highway the Freedmans
A handy set of fillies will contest the Alexandra Stakes with Getta Good Feeling (R4, #2) coming up very short. Has been in great form but not a betting commodity at the current price. The Oaks winner Strictly Business (R4, #1) returns, is a first up winner, looks a threat. Verdoux (R5, #8) is in great form and gets the 3kg Radley claim, will take a good one to get past him. Point Barrow (R6, #2) and Alfa Sofie (R6, #3) were not quite up to open company but back to fillies grade expect them to fight it out. PB could get tucked up on the inside so favour AS but little between them.
We kick off the quaddie with Treasurethe Moment (R7, #1) returning to her own sex in the Sunline. Close to her best should be good enough here, but will be a couple more in the quaddie.
Race 8 – William Reid Stakes (G1, 1200m, WFA)
Jimmysstar (1) returns, he has a great fresh record and has a great chance here. The inside barrier is of some concern, but hoping it will be offset by the speed of Jigsaw (2) who has an outside draw and will burn the turf which should open the field up enough for Jimmy. Nevertheless Jigsaw (2) will be hard to catch as proved in winning his last five. Winning an Oakleigh Plate looks good form for this so Tropicus (7) must be a chance and expect to see Rey Magnerio (3) ducking and diving through in his usual fashion. Chance to plenty more ins a great renewal.
Selections – 1-2-7-3
The Alister Clark gives us another shorty in Planet Red (R9, #1). Gets M Zahra on board and in great form. Although Roulette King (R9, #9) might be worth a gamble, fresh on the scene and won his last three. Going with Gold Medallist (R10, #13) for the win in a very open final race.
Quaddie
A win last week but not the return with well fancied runners getting up in every leg. This week with so many short-priced commodities it is a triple quaddie strategy.
Quaddie 1 – go wide
Leg 1 – 1, 2, 3, 8, 9
Leg 2 – 1, 2, 3, 4, 7
Leg 3 – 1, 2, 4, 9
Leg 4 – 13, 15
200 Combinations, a $10 investment will return 5% of the dividend
Quaddie 2 – Treasure the Planet
Leg 1 – 1,
Leg 2 – 1, 2, 3, 4, 7
Leg 3 – 1,
Leg 4 – 13, 15
10 Combinations, a $10 investment will return 100% of the dividend
Quaddie 3 – Go the shorts
Leg 1 – 1
Leg 2 – 1
Leg 3 – 1
Leg 4 – Field
15 Combinations, a $10 investment will return 66% of the dividend
Rosehill
Race 5 – Ranvet Stakes (G1, 2000m, WFA)
A leadup race to the classics, this should not be at Group One level. It does have quality at the top with Aeliana (4) at the top of markets and selections after going so close to Autumn Glow. Sir Delius (1) was another couple of lengths away in that race but did not look likely, should be fitter. Giving Lindermann (3) a mulligan from that race, will take some catching and Alalcance (6) will also be better for her previous run
Selections – 4-1-3-6
Race 6 – Rosehill Guineas (G1, 2000m, 3YO Set Weights)
As I see it it’s hard to go past Observer (1), as do other horses. He runs on speed, makes his own luck and just lasts. Autumn Boy (2) the main danger backing up from last week and stepping up to 2000m for the first time raises questions but trust CJW and the steering from JMac. Victorious Spirit (5) has been good chasing Observer (1), while Federalist (6) also chased a good one home last week.
Selections – 1-2-5-6
Race 7 – George Ryder Stakes (G1, 1500m, WFA)
Autumn Glow (8) is getting into Winx territory as she looks to stretch her record to 11 wins. Can’t see any in this field threatening. Pericles (2), Evaporate (3) and Gringotts (1) look the best of the rest to chase her home.
Selections – 1-2-5-6
Race 8 – Golden Slipper (G1, 1200m, 2YO Set Weights)
Always considered this race a raffle and this year even more so. As such going with a maiden in Zambales (7). Loomed to win the Sires at Flemington but caught in the wrong part of the track that was after a promising 4th in the Blue Diamond. Warwoven (4) was good here last week and a repeat performance would not shock. Guest House (3) is talented, did not get a clear crack in the Blue Diamond a bit more luck here and he could win. The one he couldn’t get past was Streisand (12). Babs has been a model of consistency and no reason she could not do it again. Could easily have them all wrong!
Selections – 7-4-3-12
Race 9 – Golden Slipper (G1, 1100m, HCP)
Hedged (3) is hardly the most trustworthy conveyance but his best is very good, gets good weight relief after an outstanding effort in the Oakleigh Plate. But we do need to hedge our bets on him and at the bottom of the weights is Grafterburners (14) coming off a fantastic Queensland summer. Briasa (1) has plenty to carry but his record deserves it and can win while Bridal Waltz (10) gets a big weight drop off a last start victory.
Selections – 3-14-1-10
Go Tillies, Go Jimmy
Cheers, Sal
To return to our Footy Almanac home page click HERE.
Our writers are independent contributors. The opinions expressed in their articles are their own. They are not the views, nor do they reflect the views, of Malarkey Publications.
Do you enjoy the Almanac concept?
And want to ensure it continues in its current form, and better? To help things keep ticking over please consider making your own contribution.
Become an Almanac (annual) member – click HERE.
Great day of racing.
Interested to see M. Zahra has stayed in Melbourne.
I like Guest House in the Slipper. The track is likely to play a role. Quite a few of the chances haven’t started on a wet track. Then there’s the barriers.
I’m going to have a nibble on Space Rider each way in the Darby Munro.
I think if you can get a fave beaten in the Caulfield quaddie, it will be good value.