Sal’s Preview 2025: Orr Stakes Day Preview – The FIXture is in – and it makes me wild!

Greetings All,

 

What a fantastic carnival was delivered by the VRC this year.  The crowds were fantastic especially to have 65,000 on a very soggy Champions Day.  The ground staff did an amazing job with the challenges presented by the weather to produce a fair racing surface every day.  The racing itself was very good highlighted by Half Yours’ victory in the Cup and capped with Via Sistina winning what is likely to be her final race in Melbourne.

 

Perhaps the CEO worked with her previous employer to keep them quiet during the week but they have turned up the volume this week.   First of all the announcement of the Wildcard Finals and then the dropping of the fixture.  Will leave the fixture for another time, suffice to say they have not listened to any of the criticism of the fans on fairness from the last couple of years.  The Wildcard Finals are just another idea that they can’t copy from the US fast enough.  The NBA brought it in (Play Ins) and AFL followed a year later.  It makes sense in the US where the competitions is divided into conferences and divisions, where 2nd and 3rd placed teams can have better records than other divisional winners.  Importantly for the NFL playoffs 14 teams make it from 32 team competition so you have to be better than over half the pack.  In addition it is all sudden death there no teams getting a 2nd chance.  Similar applies for the NBA.

 

Here we have a situation where more than half the competition will play finals, importantly it will completely diminish the chance of 7th and 8th to win, needing to win 5 finals in succession.  It blows away any hope of the Dogs 2016 premiership being repeated.  First of all they would have probably lost the ‘wildcard’ as they had a number of injuries.  The bye was introduced that year and allowed them to get the squad fit.  Then if they had won that ‘wildcard’ they would have gone to Perth and face the Eagles who  would have had a week off.  The fight for 6th will be become critical.

 

As for the fixture it is understood that the clubs and the broadcasters should have some influence, but surely it is time that they also listened to the fans.  Our requirements are pretty simple – make it fairer and a bit of transparency.  No surprise that they scheduled the Blues to go to Sydney in round one, but there is no return fixture.  The Swans have not faced the Blues in Melbourne since 2022.  Adelaide have not played St Kilda in Melbourne since 2019, in fact since Adelaide Oval became their home the Crows have hosted the Saints 10 times with only 3 return fixtures – and one of them was in Cairns.  Plenty of appropriate angst with the Blues getting seven ‘prime time’ fixtures, their performances last season were not deserving.  Especially compared to the premiers who only get three.  They not only played better footy, they were much better to watch.

 

Track Time

 

Caulfield

 

The Group One races go on for an extra week with the Orr Stakes plus a handy support program.  With decent weather leading up to Saturday we may get to a good track, but more likely to be in the slow range.  With the rail out 6 metres it should play fairly but may favour the on pacers so getting the track pattern will be important.

 

Hoping for a celebration in the opener on Sparkling (R1, #4) after being scratched last week.  Going with another at each way odds in the next with Haaland (R2, #5), concede that the favourite Black Run (R2, #1) is well in here also.  Nearing Liberty (R3, #7) was held over for this and gets C Williams on board who has won 2 from 3 as his pilot.  The Village Stakes is a beauty, can anyone run down Beast Mode (6)?  Reckon Hedged (4) has the best chance and will be a question of price.

 

Selections

 

Race 1- 4-8-13-7

 

Race 2 – 5-2-13-10

 

Race 3 – 7-1-11-9

 

Race 4 – 4-6-10-3

 

Race 5 – Summoned Stakes (G3, 1600m, Mares SWP)

 

Lake Vostok (6) was unlucky in the Country Cup final at Flemington, can win this with clear running.  Roll on High (3) also ran well on cup day and will be running on.  Blindedbythelight (9) is a winner here and gets the pole, Pondalowie (8) was ridden upside down last start should be in the finish as usual but needs a win.

 

Selections – 6-3-9-8

 

Race 6 – How Now Stakes (G3, 1200m, Mares SWP)

 

We have been waiting for Vestas (8) to get a run, she turns up here and looks the one to beat.  There are a few that can challenge though Soft Love (9) is in form and runs well here, as does She’s Bulletproof (1).  The SA mare Aviatress (2) won’t be here for a holiday either.

 

Selections – 8-9-1-2

 

Race 7 – Sandown Guineas (G2, 1600m, 3YO SW)

 

She got the punters flying on Derby Day and Sheza Alibi (12) should give them a good start in the Quaddie.  Not sure the short quote is quite right as there are a couple that could be competitive.  Burma Star (2) and Tagline (5) quinellad the Mandy during the carnival which looks OK for this and wary of the newcomer Top Reward (11).  Won a maiden at Mornington and Clayton Douglas is probably having more than a throw at the stumps.

 

Selections – 12-2-5-11

 

Race 8 – CF Orr Stakes (G1, 1400m, WFA)

 

Thought there might be more than seven acceptors but nevertheless a very good renewal.  The people’s favourite Jimmysstar (1) comes to Melbourne for the first time in Spring and back to Caulfield where he is 4 from 5.  Short odds but his best wins.  Biggest danger is Angel Capital (5) behind Jimmy in the Everest but strong through the line so should appreciate the extra 200m.  Evaporate (2) is also in very good form but coming back in distance against the top two might be too much of a challenge.  Vinrock (7) will set them all something to catch with the lightweight.

 

Selections – 1-5-2-7

 

Race 9 – Thoroughbred Club Stakes (G3, 1200m, 3YO Fillies SWP)

 

The move to this day and a seven figure purse sees a handy field assembled.  None more handy than My Gladiola (1).  Third in the Coolmore is good form for this.  Some concern about the inside barrier late in the day or does it just give us better odds?  Inkaruna (2) was good behind Point Barrow at Flemington.  Surf’s Up (8) wasn’t great there but chased her home well the start prior here at Caulfield.  Teine Aulele (9) comes back from 2nd in the Vanity that form will be franked if Sheza Alibi wins.  Price/Kent are also having a ping at the pegs with Jessica Rabbit (17em1) an intriguing runner if she gets a start. 

 

Selections – 1-2-8-9

 

Tough end to the day but taken by the record of Taken (R10, #7), never finished out of the money.  But a few others in the quaddie.

 

Selections

 

Race 10 – 7-8-13-11

 

Quaddie

 

We have a couple in the tomato sauce to open the quaddie and the Gladdy will also be pretty short.  So we will take one skinny in the first three legs and another a bit wider and mabe take a couple out from the last leg.

 

Quaddie 1 – Sheza Jimmy

 

Leg 1 – 12

Leg 2 – 1

Leg 3 – 1, 2 

Leg 4 – 7, 8, 11, 13, 15

 

10 Combinations, a $15 winning investment will return 150% of the dividend.

 

Quaddie 2 – If they’re off

 

Leg 1 – 2, 5, 12

Leg 2 – 1, 2, 5

Leg 3 – 1, 2, 8, 9 

Leg 4 – 7, 8, 13

 

108 Combinations, a $15 winning investment will return 13.88% of the dividend.

 

This will be my final preview for the year as we look forward to what promises to be a wonderful Ashes series.

 

Go Jimmy, Go!

 

Cheers, Sal

 

 

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