Sal’s Preview 2025: Derby Day – What will Racing Santa Bring Us?

 

 

Greetings All,

 

It’s Christmas Day for punters, but it would not be the week before Derby Day unless the AFL made a bit of media fodder.  It is not the draw this time but the announcement of a raft of rule changes.  The premise for them is to reduce game time so overall it is a positive move, but some of them don’t quite hit the mark.  Can only see more confusion around the change in the “stand” rule.  I get the objective of the rule but don’t like it as it is too hard to adjudicate at grass roots.  A discussion with The Sage suggested the change in ruck rules across the line was not necessary just have the umpires protect the ruckman with focus on the ball.  Not requiring players in the goal square will make no difference to time with the 6-6-6 rule as it will always be 30 seconds between goals for the TV networks.  Getting rid of the warnings though would be welcome.

 

Now back to Derby Day.  Punters Christmas has lost a bit of its lustre, it is still a great day of racing, however with the focus being put on Champions Day the program is missing some longer races.  Moving both the McKinnon and the Hotham Handicap leaves the program with only two races for open company and the longest of those is the 1400m Damien Oliver.  While not espousing going to a ten race card the program would be enhanced with an open event over 2000m.  Perhaps something to also attract the mid-level stayers contesting the Rosehill Cup at Randwick this week and give trainers an option to run their cup prospects as done successfully on many occasions.

 

Flemington

 

With a bit of rain the day before the track should be in perfect order, the weather should be fine with light winds giving every horse a chance to run at their best.

 

Race 1 – Carbine Club Stakes (G3, 1600m, 3YO SWP)

 

4th in the Guineas is good form for this and Vinrock (1) is 2 from 2 here, suspect he can control the race and kick away.  The spanner might be Panova (9) for Waller, he targeted this race with Aeliana last year and Fangirl before that, this looks a similar set up.  Regal Award (5) demolished an inferior bunch at Caulfield and should run well while West of Swindon (2) did the donkey work in the Guineas and should get it a bit easier here.

 

Selections – 1-9-5-2

 

Race 2 – The Vanity (G3, 1400m, 3YO Fillies SWP)

 

A tough one to sort out with a number of these having their 2nd or 3rd start.  Sheza Alibi (4) chased home a couple of colts aiming at the Coolmore and has a 1400m run under her belt.  Never been out of the prizemoney and might get the lion’s share here.  Based on that logic Live (5) must be a threat as she beat all bar Napoleonic last week.  Stardom (2) was a winner last against the fillies and M’lady Rose (13) has had just the one start for a win at Ballarat but looks promising.

 

Selections – 4-5-2-13

 

Race 3 – Rising Fast Stakes (G3, 1200m, HCP)

 

The older sprinters have a crack here and it looks like a race to find some value – or at least we hope so.  The SA trainers make a habit of snaring a couple of races during the carnival and reckon Watch Me Win (8) might be the next, equal fastest home in the Gilgai and drops 4kg.  The Tassie mare Geesgees Mistruth (9) rattled home in the Caulfield Sprint, no lies she is a big chance.  Hedged (10) was not far off Jigsaw at Cranbourne, he was terrific last week so must be some chance and hard to leave the straight specialist Star Patrol (4) out.  The handicapper might have got him, but blinkers back on and will take some catching.  A few handy types down from Sydney and just banking on the straight being their undoing.

 

Selections – 8-9-10-4

 

Race 4 – Wakeful Stakes (G2, 2000m, 3YO Fillies SWP)

 

Had a good feeling about Getta Good Feeling (1) and then saw the price.  Still think she is the most likely winner and will follow up as a huge chance in the Oaks.  The SA raiders could be at it again with Freedom Flame (3) Hill Smith Stakes winners have a good record at the carnival so commands interest.  As does the aptly named Fashionable (7) coming off a maiden win at Hawkesbury against  the older horses and the third placegetter has since had a big win in Brisbane.  Strictly Business (5) got her maiden out of the way at Ballarat, looks progressive and the distance should suit.

 

Selections – 1-3-7-5

 

Race 5 – The Damien Oliver (G2, 14000m, HCP)

 

King Zephyr (13) could not get past Zou Sensation (4) in the Weekend Hustler reckon the weight swing and bigger track gets him there.  Enxuto (12) races well here and gets some weight relief from last start, Media World (3) won that race but carries an extra couple of kegs..  Would have almost had Steparty (1) on top but for the barrier.

 

Selections – 13-4-12-3

 

Race 6 – Coolmore Stud Stakes (G1, 1200m, 3YO SW)

 

Will this be the beginning of a Godolfin procession?  Beiwacht (1) made a mess of the field in the Golden Rose, a reproduction of that should be good enough here.  However sees the straight for the first time which makes Tentyris (3) the pick.  An outstanding winner of the Gothic and a winner here.  At odds Legacy Bound (9) and Skyglider (11) are of interest.  The former was good in the Danehill but in the wrong part of the track, the latter is undefeated and takes a big step up here but doubt Waller would be running him without a high opinion.  Beadman (10, My Gladiola (12) not without hope.  A great renewal!

.  

Selections – 3-1-8-11

 

Race 7 – Victoria Derby (G1, 2500m, 3YO SW)

 

A full field plus emergencies looks a good argument for not mucking around with the distance of the blue riband event.  It also presents the great question for punters about who can stay the journey.  Making it more difficult is that all the lead up races were run at slow speeds so we haven’t seen any of them have a test of stamina.  Will be a keen Observer (1) to see the Godolfin procession continue.  It’s a short price to take but he was superb in the Guineas and authoritative in the Vase last week.  Not sure why M Zahra copped it from the stewards, all he had to do was win and this is the grand final.  Hopefully it was not due to margin betting from the corporates, take those bets at your peril.  Have the other Godolfin runner Options (5) next, there were better runs in the Vase but he finished off reasonably and he is a winner here.  Providence (6) was the big closer in that race and could provide CJW with his fourth derby winner.  Miewa (4) has been closing well off the slow tempos, a bit of speed here could suit him.  Azazel (7) was a good winner of the Geelong Classic and should get the journey.  Also liked the chances of Highvol (2) and Autumn Mystery (3) but both have tricky gates to contend with.

 

Selections – 1-5-6-4

 

Race 8 – Empire Rose Stakes (G1, 1600m, Fillies and Mares WFA)

 

At least we know how this race will be run, the question is whether or not they can catch Pride of Jenni (1).  Would love to see her hold on, but not quite sure she will be able to.  The obvious main threat is Fangirl (2) who will be nearly as popular, but reckon Leica Lucy (6) is a bigger threat.  The one that could blow them all away is Idle Flyer (10) great win from a tough barrier last start and could make the step up.  Benagil (5) is not without a chance as is Damask Rose (4).

 

Selections – 6-2-1-10

 

Race 9 – Begonia Belle (G3, 1100m, Mares SWP)

 

What a way to finish the Quaddie with a charge down the straight and a wide open one at that.  With She’s Bulletproof (3), proved to be just that at Caulfield and looks to be up to this.  If the wide barriers are favoured it will improve the chances of New York Lustre (10) who lost a bit of the shine from her career start but looks to be running into form now.  Soft Love (13) was the eye catcher in the Alinghi who could go one better and Stretan Angel (5) was that one better and has a win down the straight on the resume.

 

Selections – 3-10-13-5

 

Quaddie Time

 

Going with the fat and skinny quaddie strategy – if the shorties don’t get up it looks a tough day.

 

Quaddie 1 – Fatso

 

Leg 1 – 1, 3, 9, 10, 11, 12

Leg 2 – 1, 4, 5, 6, 7

Leg 3 – 1, 2, 6, 10

Leg 4 –  3, 10, 13

 

480 Combinations, a $30 winning investment will return 6.25% of the dividend.

 

Quaddie 2 – Go Dolphin!

 

Leg 1 – 1, 3

Leg 2 – 1, 5

Leg 3 – 1, 2, 6

Leg 4 –  3, 10, 13

 

36 Combinations, a $20 winning investment will return 55.56% of the dividend.

 

Cheers, Sal

 

 

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