Sal’s Preview 2025: Cox Plate Preview – Farewell to the Grand Theatre

Greetings All,

 

We get a week without footy so thought it appropriate to say a couple of farewells.  First of all for So You Think who died early this week.  He was Bart Cumming’s last great horse and a champion one at that.   Winning the Cox Plate as a 3YO then following up a year later  Got about 3150m of the Melbourne Cup before being overrun to finish third.  Shunted off to Aidan O’Brien for an international career where he won five more Group One races including at Royal Ascot before a successful move to the breeding barn.  Hopefully one of his progeny in Revelare can make it to the Cup this year.

 

The other is for Moonee Valley or at least the circuit as we know it.  There are mixed emotions on this one.  The Strathayr used to be the best surface in Melbourne in the wet, but has become a glue pot in recent years.  Then as the rail moves out we get accentuated leader bias making it tough for the average punter.  But on the positive it has been the scene of some amazing races in such an amphitheatre we remember fondly the wins of WInx, Kingston Town, Might and Power, Sunline and more.  Who can forget The Diva ‘smoking the pipe’ as she rounded the bend to win the great race.  Then maybe the greatest of all when Bonecrusher duelled with Our Waverley star as he raced into ‘Equine Immortality’  This year the Cox Plate will close the curtain on a track that will live on in ‘Racing Immortality’.

 

Track Time

 

Moonee Valley

 

As covered this is a tired track and concerned about any rain and that it could become sticky to run on and sticky to punt on.  However the forecast is that there will not be too much precipitation and the track should be OK.  With 8 races on Friday Night the Inside draws late on Saturday may become problematic as they hunt for better ground out wide.

 

Friday Night Lights

 

Apart from the Moonee Valley Gold Cup there is not too much to be excited about on this card although Fieldelo (R5, #11) will be an interesting watch but very short.

 

Race 6 – Moonee Valley Gold Cup (G2, 2500m, SWP)

 

The bride has often referred to me as one so it is hard to go past Smokin’ Romans (3).  The conditions of this race sees him meeting Brayden Star (1) on much better terms and has a great record here.  Giving Scary (12) some hope here but would like to see some pace in the race.  Respect for Onesmoothoperator (5) scratched from the Geelong Cup for this but do note leadup form last year looked better.  At the time of writing Gilded Water (12) is still in the field but expect him to be scratched after running in the Geelong Cup.

 

Selections – 1-3-5-2

 

Super Saturday

 

The day kicks off with a 1000m scamper and hard to go past the favourite in Tonkin (R1, #9) has won over this journey and never finished out of the quinella.

 

Race 2 – Red Anchor Stakes (G3, 1200m, 3YO SWP)

 

A few of these might have The Coolmore on the agenda next week, but reckon any of these would be making up the numbers.  Snow Mercy (8) is drawn well and won over this journey last start.  Prince Tycoon (1) peaks interest 3rd start, won a recent trial and gets D Lane.  St Edward (4) is also a last start winner here and must respect JMac choosing to ride Napoleonic (2) who was good in the Roman Consul.

 

Selections – 8-1-4-2

 

Hoping Tres Magnifique (R3, #12) is just that in the Crokett for the sprinting fillies.

 

Race 4 – MV Fillies Classic (G2, 1600m, 3YO Fillies SW)

 

Salty Pearl (1) backs up from a great run in the Thousand Guineas, if she can reproduce anything close to that she wins in what is not a deep race.  Enviable (3) closed well in the Flight Stakes which is good enough for this.  G Begg and J Childs with a filly has to be respected Ruska Roma (5) has a chance and looking for improvement from Prestige Snitzel (2) hitting this 3rd up.

 

Selections – 1-3-5-2

 

Race 5 – JRA Cup (G3, 2040m, HCP)

 

A couple of cup hopefuls running here but not sure how they are going.  M Zahra dismounted from one of them to ride Future History (4) here and meets Casino Seventeen (3) on better terms.  Point King (2) has been off the scene for over a year but has good first up stats and gets the Caulfield Cup winning hoop.  Not ignoring the SA warhorse Sir Kingsford (8) a consistent performer.

 

Selections – 4-2-3-8

 

Race 6 – Tesio Stakes (G3, 2040m, 4YO Mares HCP)

 

An interesting renewal of this race and looking at a couple at odds to improve over the extra trip.  Backing up on See What I See (4) who should appreciate that extra trip as should Moving Out (5) who gets a handy draw.  Molly Bloom (3) returns to mares racing where she was very good two starts back and She’s a Hustler (8) for Begg/Childs is in great form.

 

Selections – 4-5-3-8

 

Race 7 – Crystal Mile (G2, 1600m, WFA)

 

Might have to get up early to get the price for Rise at Dawn (4) who has been progressing nicely this campaign.  Have him just ahead of Oh Too Good (8) stepping up to open grade.  Golden Path (5) comes back from the 2000m but this is a much more suitable race for him and Desert Lightning (3) is a winner here.  If the track becomes rain affected then El Rocko (6) becomes a great chance.

.  

Selections – 4-8-5-3

 

Race 8 – McEwen Stakes (G2, 1200m, WFA)

 

Hard to go past Charm Stone (5) here after winning the Manikato here last start.  Second to Giga Kick is handy form making Tropicus (3) the main threat and the mares Niance (7) and Bridal Waltz (8) are capable.

 

Selections – 5-3-7-8

 

Race 9 – The Vase (G2, 2040m, 3YO SW)

 

Not many missed Observer (1) running a cracking third in the Guineas going straight to the top of the Derby market.  Should win this to justify that position.  Another Godolfin runner Options (3) should also run well in the lead up.  JMac has some work to do from the wide gate on Providence (5) and O’Sheamus (6) looks promising after breaking his maiden.

 

Selections – 1-3-5-6

 

Race 10 – WS Cox Plate (G1, 2040m, WFA)

 

Not the greatest renewal of this race but have said that before and it still delivered.  The scratching of Globe has taken all the speed out of this race and we might have another farcical speed race, I suspect one of them might roll the dice and try and pinch it.  Via Sistina (6) is a justified favourite but her recent runs have not been ideal so would not be jumping in to the short price.  The inside draw should have Treasurethe Moment (7) in an ideal position behind the leaders but also concerned about the recent runs.  The one with the best recent run is Antino (2) in the Turnbull.  Has the services of B Shinn who has a great record on him and looks a great chance.  Does Nepotism (9) try to break them up under the lightweight?  7th in the Guineas might not look like great form, but So You Think finished 5th in the Guineas in his year.  At a longer price Attrition (3) is hard to catch but can see C Williams potentially taking up the lead and trying to pinch it if he can stack them up and sprint away.

 

Selections – 2-6-7-9

 

Quaddie Time

 

With the big race being the last we will try and get a few in early.

 

Leg 1 – 3, 4, 5, 8

Leg 2 – 3, 5, 7, 8

Leg 3 – 1, 3

Leg 4 – 2, 3, 6, 7, 9 

 

160 Combinations, a $30 winning investment will return 18.75% of the dividend.

 

Randwick

 

Race 8 – Spring Champion Stakes (G1, 2000m, 3YO SW)

 

The value runner here is Officiate (4) the form around it from 3rd in the Super Impose at Flemington has been good, further franked with the 4th placegetter in that race taking out the Derby Trial at Geelong.  If Sydney form is better then hard to look past the top two in Attica (1) and Shangri La Boy (2) just favour the latter with a better barrier.  The Pearls (13) chased him home in the Gloaming so must have some chance.

 

Selections – 4-2-1-13

 

Like the prospects of Miss Roumbini (R9, #3) in The Invitation.

 

It is not Good Bye to the Valley, merely Au Revoir.  May the plate deliver again.!

 

Cheers, Sal

 

 

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