Sal’s Preview 2025: Caulfield Cup Preview – Plus a draft review of course

Greetings All,

 

A plug for the Footy Almanac Racing Lunch.  This year it will be held on the eve of the Cox Plate – Friday October 24 from 12:30 at the All Nations Hotel in Richmond.  Guest speaker will be Andrew Rule along with plenty of racing banter and reckon a little footy might get squeezed in.  For further details and bookings go to  Footy Almanac Cox Plate Lunch.  

 

The trade period is over with once again the vast majority of work done on the final day.  Surely this could be pulled back to a three day formal period and let the clubs, players and agents do their courting in the couple of weeks prior.  It was certainly one of the more eventful trade periods we have endured with a couple of clubs wresting control back off the players (or did they?).  The standout being the Zach Merrett case,  The Bombers indicated very early that he would not be traded and stuck to their guns.  Hawthorn though were never really serious about getting Zach trying to bully their way through with draft picks.  Draft picks might be trading capital but they don’t put ready made talent on the field, something crucial to Essendon.  The offer of Hustwaite was no different to a draft pick, he might become a good player but not yet part of the Hawks best 23.  While Essendon wanted four first round picks suspect that was an ambit claim and what they really wanted to do a trade was an established player to make up for the loss of their very best.

 

Can be directly compared to the Blues and Curnow.  Despite the close call on time Sydney put up a well established player in Hayward along with the range of draft picks.  He will slot straight into the Blues line up and make a difference.  The Rowan Marshall case is interesting and appeared to be that St Kilda just didn’t want to deal with Geelong.  Can Conway get on the park for them?.

 

Now we await the fixture where we can look forward to the Hawks-Bombers, Blues-Swans and maybe even Cats-Saints in the season openers.

 

Track Time

 

Caulfield

 

It’s Caulfield Cup Day this week after a great rendition of the Guineas last week.  We might have one that has escaped the handicapper in the big race. With fine weather predicted we can expect a fair racing surface with a likely upgrade of the track to a good 3 at some stage of the afternoon.  We have a handy support program and there is another 6 furlong sprint taking place at Randwick. 

 

The day opens with a tough one, quite like the favourite Bacash (R1, #4) but appears way too short, perhaps an each way play on Wise Inlaw (R1, #6) might present better value.

 

Race 2 – Norman Robinson Stakes(G3, 2000m, 3YO SW)

 

They might call it the classic but it will always be the Robbo to me!  The boys go on trial for the Derby and happy to stick with the form from the recent Flemington lead ups.  Miewa (2) just missed last start but should be fitter for the run and a good performance should make a live chance on Saturday week.  The Derby Trial was a blanket finish for the top three, but just behind them was Deal Done Fast (9) closing fast after an interrupted journey.  Engine of War (5) and Autumn Mystery (3) were two of those in front of him and are good chances.

 

Selections – 2-9-5-3

 

Race 3 – Ethereal Stakes(G3, 2000m, 3YO Fillies SWP)

 

Outside the favourite Just a Journey (3) the fillies version is tougher affair.  If there is plenty of pace then Yum (2) could gobble them all up.  After Summer (5) won the Oaks trial but in slow time so not sure that form and Just Kick (6) could show up but still a maiden.

 

Selections – 3-2-5-6

 

They couldn’t catch McGaw (R4, #1) in the Danehill and he will make it hard in the Gothic especially if there is any favours for the leader.  The Alinghi looks a good contest for the mares and like the chances of Soft Love (R5, #6) at a fair price.  Undefeated first up and on good ground, does need to overcome a wide draw.

 

Race 6 – Caulfield Sprint (G2, 1000m, HCP)

 

Renamed for the little paper this year, this renewal is a bit thin but very competitive.  Settled on Arabian Summer (3) who never got clear air last week and might have threatened Giga Kick.  The people’s horse Rey Magnerio (1) returns and is handy first up, Zealously (7) sees Caulfield for the first time but has a great record over the distance and unblemished on a good track.   Nadal (2) has the talent to win this, however like his namesake has a preference for slow surfaces.  Won’t get that here and likely to be scratched again with a track upgrade, replace him with Sghrippa (4) if that happens.

 

Selections – 3-1-7-2

 

Race 7 – Thousand Guineas (G1, 1600m, 3YO Fillies SW)

 

Great to see the winner of the Flight Stakes back up to the Blue Riband Melbourne feature for the fillies – a plus for the rescheduling of this race.  Apocalyptic (1) will go around at a short price with just the Caulfield question hanging over her.  Expect M Zahra to negotiate the challenge and be very hard to beat.  Get a Good Feeling (4) won over the distance last start looks a good chance as does Ole Dancer (3) stepping out to the mile for the first time but trusting the Moody/Coleman/Shinn combination to get it right.  Salty Pearl (6) was not far away in the same race.  Will take them all plus a couple (2, 10) in the quaddie but also a second one with the favourite one out

.  

Selections – 1-4-3-6

 

Race 8 – Moonga Stakes (G3, 1400m, 4YO+ SWP)

 

If Nash comes down to ride Private Eye (2) rather than riding at Sydney’s biggest day then expect him to be at his prime.   Media World (6) looks the main threat after a good win last start, Star Patrol (10) has the talent to win this but needs to tick the 7 furlong box and Warnie (11) gets some chance carrying the minimum. 

 

Selections – 2-6-10-11

 

Race 9 – Caulfield Cup (G1, 2400m, HCP)

 

For a while now Half Yours (15) has appeared half over the line, but you do need to run the race.  He is beautifully drawn and well weighted but the current price is too short in such a race.  The last Metropoltan Hcp winner to salute here was Tawqeet in 2006, but giving this year’s winner Royal Supremacy (16) a chance with the Melbourne Cup winning jockey R Dolan aboard, the C Maher polish and a light imposte.  Another of Maher’s runners in Middle Earth (3) gets out to a suitable trip and M Zahra has stuck fat.  A fair bit has been made of Meydaan (4) of the internationals and am much more wary of Golden Snap (11).  Japanese horse on what is likely to be a fast deck.  Deakin (10), Revelare (12) and Valiant King (17) are locked into the Melbourne Cup, they are all well weighted here and will be looking for good runs prior to their Grand Final.  

 

Selections – 15-16-3-11-17-12-10-4

 

Race 10 – Tristarc Stakes (G2, 1400m, Mares SWP)

 

The Begg stable is well represented here with two great chances.  Putting Splash Back (2) on top purely related to barrier draw over Miraval Rose (1).  Both winners here and the G Begg strike rate is very good.  Tulleries (10) chased Miraval Rose (1) home last start and meets her with a 1½kg advantage and Abounding (5) did the same against the other Begg mare and has a 2½kg swing.

 

Selections – 2-1-10-5

 

Quaddie Time

 

Typically tough day with such a big meeting, let’s hope we can go one better than last week. Being a big day will up the stakes to $50 and split it between a wide quaddie and a one out with Apocalyptic.

 

Quaddie 1 – Go the roughie

 

Leg 1 – 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 10

Leg 2 – 2, 6, 10

Leg 3 – 3, 11, 12, 15, 16, 17

Leg 4 – 1, 2, 5, 10

 

432 Combinations, a $40 winning investment will return 9.26% of the dividend.

 

Quaddie 2 – It’s Apocalyptic Out There!

 

Leg 1 – 1

Leg 2 – 2, 6, 10

Leg 3 – 3, 11, 12, 15, 16, 17

Leg 4 – 1, 2, 5, 10

 

72 Combinations, a $10 winning investment will return 13.89% of the dividend.

 

Randwick

 

Good weather and track should see the best come to the fore for Sydney’s biggest race day.  The undercard has some interesting races especially to St Leger which has a couple of cup aspirants running.

 

Race 7 – The Everest (G1, 1200m, WFA)

 

The draw couldn’t be better for the Hong Kong visitor Ka Ying Rising (1) but the price is a bit too short to cop.  So while a great winning chance hoping to find one to run over the top.  The race is a tough 1200 where form over 7 furlongs rates highly.  Jimmysstar (4) could not quite get to Briasa (2) last time but the extra pressure here gives him a great chance.  As stated previously War Machine (5) is just a winning machine and is up for the race of his life and at the bottom the filly Tempted (12) might have failed last start but her best is very good and C Williams knows how to win this race.

 

Selections – 4-1-5-12-2

 

Race 9 – King Charles III Stakes (G1, 1609m, WFA)

 

Possibly the race of the day with plenty of fan favourites chasing The Chuck.  Unabashed about that favouritism putting Pride of Jenni (11) on top.  If she can’t quite hold on for the extra nine metres Fangirl (10) will be right there as will Mr Brightside (1).  Respect anything that William Haggis brings to Australia so Lake Forest (4) rates and not discounting Tom Kitten (5) out of form but a real threat at his best.

 

Selections – 11-10-1-4

Go Jenni Go!!

 

Cheers, Sal

 

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