Round 6 – Sal’s Preview: Here is to the gathering.

Greetings All,

 

The anticipated pile on with respect to thoughts on the fairness or lack thereof for Gather Round was swift and hefty.  The pilers correctly point out the fact that clubs like Collingwood and Richmond play so many games at the MCG.  The Pies play 14 and the Tigers 13 at the venue – the same number of games the SA teams play at Adelaide Oval this year.

 

What that doesn’t take into account is the number of games played at home where they enjoy a genuine Home Ground Advantage.  Back in September I provided analysis of all clubs and their record in games where they have a genuine home ground advantage and made the point that it is a matter of balance.  Gather Round or not the non-Victorian clubs will have a disproportionate number of games with such an advantage – if they are good enough it gives them a leg up in qualifying for finals.  The balance is provided with the Grand Final played on the MCG, the travelling clubs go OK there winning 9 from 19 Grand Finals where they have taken on Victorian opposition.

 

For the record here is the table for Home Ground Advantage for 2025.

 

Team	HGA	HGA Record
Adelaide Crows	11	2-1
Brisbane Lions	11	2-0
Fremantle	11	1-1
Gold Coast Suns	11	1-0
GWS Giants	11	2-0
Port Adelaide	11	2-1
Sydney Swans	11	0-2
Geelong Cats	10	2-0
West Coast Eagles	10	0-2
Essendon	6	1-1
Hawthorn	6	1-0
Melbourne	6	0-2
Richmond	6	0-1
St Kilda	6	1-0
Carlton	5	0-0
Collingwood	5	1-0
Western Bulldogs	5	0-0
North Melbourne	4	0-1

 

 

For the purpose of the exercise ‘Genuine Home Games’ are defined as follows:

 

• WA and SA teams any game where an interstate club is hosted.
• Syd, GWS, Bris and GC any home game including against cross city rivals
• Haw and NM hosted games in Tasmania
• Melbourne based clubs any game hosted against non-Melbourne clubs (including Geelong)
• Geelong any game at Kardinia Park

 

While I have concerns around the advantage the Adelaide clubs get it is no worse than North playing “home” games against the WA sides in the west.  For an unbalanced competition with so many teams based in Melbourne we will always have non-Victorian clubs having stronger home ground advantages, against all that they still need to win at the MCG.  And I would argue they should all get at least two games at that venue per year.  And just for the record, despite any misgivings Gather Round should remain exactly as it is.

 

So who gets the advantage this week and will they use it?

 

Hippy, Hippy, Shake (73%) vs The Infrequent Flyers (27%)

 

The Easter Thursday ritual continues with the Pies traveling to Brisbane.  The Lions might be 5-0 and one the best teams to watch but have had to claw back leads in four of those five matches, it’s great to have the belief to win from anywhere but dangerous to be dependent on it.  Their comeback last week featured a mighty effort from Eric Hipwood.  They take on Collingwood, I have been made well aware of their limited travel itinerary and 17 games in Melbourne.  However, what annoys the Pie Haters even more (including me) is how well they travel on those rare occasions.  Won their last 10 in Adelaide and 4-6 at the Gabba.  After their “too slow” game the Pies have been as good as anyone and will look forward to celebrating Jamie Elliott’s 200th game.  The Lions have great attacking weapons, can they get through the vault that has been the Collingwood defence in the last four games?  I doubt Fagan will allow Darcy Moore to roam free and make them all more accountable, but will that open them up at the other end?  The Lion record at home has me going their way but it should be a beauty.

 

Sun Burnt (17%) vs Que Cerra Cerra (83%)

 

The Blues get to play in the North Melbourne benefit match, it has tended to be a Carlton benefit in recent times.  Not so sure this time.  North were in the game for a long time last week before being torched by the Suns.  Gold Coast are playing much better than the Blues at present and we saw North split Melbourne apart at this venue a few weeks ago.  While Carlton had a solid win last week it was bruise free footy and disturbing how easily West Coast were able to transition on kick out and defensive turn over.  The Blues won’t be helped by the loss of Kemp and McKay.  Perhaps TDK will spend more time forward but that will be dependent on whether Pittonet can come in and have an impact in his first game for the season.  Xerri has been very good for the Roos.  The Blues have handled North well recently and probably will again, but Clarko will be sure to have a plan that might be their undoing.

 

Half-Baked (7%) vs Nick Off (93%)

 

Liam Baker hasn’t minced his words on the Eagles efforts of late, is it out of frustration or loyalty to the coach?  Perhaps both.  Expect them to put in a better showing at home against the Bombers who will have to rearrange their ruck set up with the unfortunate injury to Nick Bryant.  While the West Coast will be better, doubt they will be good enough.

 

Deespair (17%) vs Treacy Bullet (83%)

 

Simon Goodwin has responded well in the media and was transparent in describing his issues with the team’s defence.  Expect this game to be dragged into the trenches.  The Demons may not win but they do need  to make it harder for the opposition to score.  As for being the right person to lead the team, time will only tell.  The club’s challenge being the complete lack of leadership, with no CEO and Brad Green being a caretaker president.  To make it hard to score they will need to look after Josh Treacy, with May doubtful it could be a challenge.  Expecting a much better effort from the Dees, but suspect Freo will just pack too many guns.

 

Call the Plumber (59%) vs It’s not Easy Playing Greene (41%)

 

Their conqueror got themselves within 100 points, but the Crows are still easily the highest scoring team in the competition.  They got burnt at the other end again and need to stop the leaking.  Only 6 teams have worse defensive numbers.  It won’t get any easier against the Giants.  Dangerfield proved too much to handle last week, this week they have to contend with Toby Greene.  He doesn’t need many touches either in the middle or up forward, most of them are midas.  The home ground factor is important for Adelaide, but the Giants have been pretty good on the road so that balances out.  Overall, the Giants defence is miserly with the capability to shut down the Adelaide forwards, at the other end they are potent and should have too much firepower to win the shootout.

 

Coming up Short (1%) vs Shining (99%)

 

The Tigers have a few experienced heads like Short, Vlastuin, Nankervis, … but still a few too many youngsters to make an impact.  They take on the Suns who have been through that phase and look a serious threat now, the one concerning factor being that aside from Adelaide they have played 3 of the 4 bottom sides and this the fourth.  They should continue their winning ways.

 

The Party’s Over (78%) vs Willie Play? (22%)

 

Sydney loses a key forward in Amartey, how they will cover the loss?  Do they bring back an under done McDonald or swing McCartin forward?  McInerney’s return will help but they still have a few too many on the injury list.  They host the jubilant Power who revelled in their victory over the Hawks.  Expect Willie Rioli to play after some unnecessary trauma in the aftermath of the win.  Perhaps the use of social media was ill-advised but resultant pile on from the hidden keyboard warriors was more so.  Port’s best is good enough and their recent record at the SCG is pretty good but expect Sydney will be able to bounce back after last week’s loss.

 

The Other Love (70%) vs Hyphenation! (30%)

Easter Sunday Night is worth a try and the Bulldogs and Saints looks a great match up.  The Dogs should get their other love back in Bontempelli, they won’t be at full strength, but they’ll be close.  The Saints couldn’t quite contain the Giants last week, but the Giants struggled to contain Wanganeen-Milera.  He was very good off half-back and even better when moved onto the ball.  They will take heart from their final quarter performance despite the loss.  Just think the return of The Bont will give the Dogs the edge here.

 

Axeman Ready (51%) vs Hawthorn (49%)

 

Another ripping contest to close the round with the Cats and Hawks to go at it.  Geelong looked in all sorts of trouble against Adelaide and kudos rightly went to Dangerfield and Smith in getting them back in the game and closing it out.  Bullocking all the way through the game and critical in keeping them in the game was Tom Atkins his efforts win the contest was as important if not more.  The Hawks lost again to their bogey team.  Suspect Port have laid the template to tag Sicily if he plays in defence, suspect we will see more of him in front of the ball where he was very effective and always a hard match up.  They will be buoyed at least by their effort to close the margin as much as they did.  It’s a tough one to pick, the Cats getting Stewart back swings it their way, but nothing would surprise.

 

Track Time

We head to Mornington for their cup day while The Championships close in Sydney with a couple of Group One events.

 

Randwick

 

Race 7 – Champagne Stakes (G1, 1600m, 2YO SW)

The babies step out to the mile for this one which can often see one come out of the pack.  Not sure we will here.  State Visit (1) nearly got there in the Sires, in the top three every start and should get every chance with JMac aboard.  At a longer price Tupekara (10) has the benefit of having a run over the journey and coming 2^nd, inside draw might be a challenge.  Within the Law (7) continues her good form a big step up from 1200 to 1600 but have to trust Bjorn again.   Nepotism (2) has a win over 1400 and the extra distance should suit.

Selections – 11-10-7-2

 

Race 8 – All-Aged Stakes (G1, 1400m, WFA)

The sprinters and milers collide for this one, expecting the sprinters might have the edge.  Not sure whether it’s heart or head but reckon Jimmysstar (4) will relish the extra 200m and be able to chase them down, but there are a couple of beauties he needs to get passed.  The main one being Briasa (2) who was so good winning the TJ with the Hawkes team very bullish about him.  GSOB’s colt Broadsiding (14) returns after achieving his key mission in the Rosehill Guineas, drops back from 2000m but might just be better than them all.  Of the mares Kimochi (11) at her best will be very competitive,

Selections – 4-2-14-11

 

Quaddie Time

Just going to stick with Mornington this week, not quite as enthusiastic about the Randwick.  Mind you the Mornington program is not that great either!

Leg 1 – 2, 7, 9, 11, 14

Leg 2 – 1, 2, 5, 6

Leg 3 – 2, 3, 4, 6

Leg 4 – 2, 4

160 combinations, $30 investment returning 18.75% of the dividend.

 

Go Blues, Go Gout Gout!

 

Cheers, Sal

 

 

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