Greetings All,
We cross the border for the South Australian benefit round with the Premier pushing hard to extend the arrangement. Overall, the concept completely compromises the fairness of the competition with both SA teams getting 12 home games plus the Showdown. Fans should be annoyed by this but what’s the point when other clubs donate their home games to the opposition for the financial benefits. So, while most fans all over the country miss out on attending, there are plenty that will make their way over and enjoy the celebration of footy. Should it go elsewhere? Reckon it is in the right place – as central to the country as we can get with plenty of access from both the east and west.
It all sounds like fun for those attending but there are plenty who can’t. Surely all games with such restriction should be made available on FTA television for this round.
Anyway they are not and we better take a look at them all.
If you don’t mind Umpire (72%) vs Appetite for Dee-struction (28%)
The Crows got stiffed again by a last-minute umpiring howler and maybe Rankine kicks the goal. It’s a very hard game to adjudicate, the league needs to stop throwing their umpires under the bus and work out how to make their job easier. There would have been plenty of other errors through the game where decisions are required in a split second. They host the Cats who took full toll of Melbourne at home last week, Chris Scott is validly concerned about the ‘evening up’ human tendencies the umpires have. It takes away from what should be a great contest. There must be some doubt about Izak taking his place, he is a weapon they can ill afford to lose. The Crows are made of sterner stuff, and their forward line has been potent so far this year. Ranked No1 for scoring and 106 points ahead of the next best. The Cats lose Henry from their defence, his replacement Blicavs is no slouch. The contest at that end of the ground might be the decisive one. At the other end Geelong are doing OK, ranking 3rd for offence while the Crows are only the 10th most miserly defence. Can they look after Cameron, Dangerfield, Miers, Stengle and co? A tough one to pick and maybe the home ground advantage swings it to Adelaide, however the Cats have no fear about the venue and a great record over the Crows and reckon it will continue.
Dad’s Army (63%) vs The Bice Cycle(37%)
The Pies might be full of veterans but if they are all still good enough to get a game why change? Not sure what the media obsession is with it, especially after the Old Cats’ flag a couple of years ago. Importantly they all have good football brains plus are predictable and trustworthy as teammates. These factors were far too much for the Blues, how will the Swans fair against them? They got their mojo rolling with a dominant performance over the Roos with Riley Bice putting in another great performance. Some selection dilemmas with McDonald, Melican and Cunningham pushing for a return, or does Big Cox just stay with the cattle that did the job last week? The Pies’ dilemmas are the opposite needing to find replacements for De Goey, Schultz and the recalcitrant Houston. The changes will make them younger, not sure it will make them better. Although there is no better team at bringing in young players and just do their job. Nevertheless, suspect Sydney might just have the edge here and not as prone to panic compared to the Pies previous opponents.
Still on Oak (8%) vs A fine Rose? (92%)
The Roos head to the Barossa and in wine parlance they are probably like a 2024 Shiraz, still in the barrel and developing. Unfortunately, footy teams can’t develop in the barrel and away from the crowds and games like last week will happen. Clarko copped a bit from the media for not being honest with them and the North fans. He has only cared for one thing through his coaching journey and that is his players, am pretty sure honesty wasn’t lacking behind closed doors. They face the rampant Gold Coast who will be wearing a pink strip for this one. It’s been a while, but this vintage is out of the barrel, has been released and might be special. Suspect they will be drinking the spoils at the end of this one.
Rinse and Repeat (97%) vs An Interesting Reid (3%)
For the fourth game in a row the Blues were good enough to lead at half-time before capitulating under pressure and lose. Michael Voss then delivers the same presser saying how it is not good enough and we need to go to work to fix it blah, blah, blah. What he doesn’t do is make players accountable, surely this week there will be repercussions. They take on the Eagles who have their own challenges. Not only on the field but a captain talking to opposition coaches and a pack coming for Harley Reid. Wherever Harley finishes up, the club will be paying a hefty price, will they be able to find the right balance to field a consistently competitive team? Perhaps their opponents this week are a good case study? But the opponents should surely win this, but no doubt the Eagles will have a red-hot crack.
The Loveliest of All (20%) vs Reville-ing in it (80%)
One might argue the Dogs have had some green alligators and long-necked geese, some humpty-backed camels and some chimpanzees, some cats and rats and elephants, but sure as you’re born, they are most in love with their unicorn. There is not much Sam Darcy can’t do. Great Mark, Great Kick, superb balance, they have had some beauties go through the club, but he just might be the best. They take on the premiers in what should be a great match and should be at the prime venue but instead is at the suburban park. The Lions are trying to solve their own unicorn problem, Big Joe picked and chose when he played but when he did few could stop him. So far, they are doing OK without him. They are almost the best equipped to deal with the Unicorn with Andrews and Payne controlling the big opposition forwards. Suspect the Lions will have too much strength in the middle and get this one done.
Slam the Window? (48%) vs Caddy Shacked (52%)
Yep, the Demons are going poorly and at 0-4 highly unlikely to be a premiership contender. But shutting them out of the premiership window with this group seems premature given the way the Pies are being viewed. May and Gawn are both 33 but the rest of the key players are not 30 yet apart from Jack Viney. Perhaps their contested style will curtail their careers, but some smart management at other clubs has seen such players contribute to premierships. They still have plenty to address, especially up forward, but the window is still ajar. They play the Bombers who are trying to pry the window open, Nate Caddy being a key part of their future plans. It makes this a tough game to select. The week off helps the Bombers but Melbourne have had plenty of recovery and soul-searching time. They were not as bad as the scoreboard suggested at Geelong and can get themselves on the board.
Balta from a Blue (2%) vs Oooh Mr Darcy (98%)
Noah Balta has served his AFL time for his involvement in a street fight. Not sure the time was adequate given the nature of the crime, but it does have Dill’s sign off. His Tigers take on Freo in Wine Country who have a ready-made replacement for the injured Luke Jackson with Sean Darcy available. The Tigers were feisty late against the Lions and do move the ball with method, but the foot might have been off the pedal and expect them to get few favours from the Dockers.
Feeling at Home (21%) vs Hogan the Hero (79%)
Another ripping game scheduled at Norwood – ridiculous! The Saints have accepted their new home in SA and did a great job in turning off the Power last week. Beset by injuries they have made no excuses and have won their last three. The degree of difficulty goes up a notch taking on Jesse Hogan and the Giants. I doubt Cal Wilkie will give him the latitude he got last week. The Giants demolished the Eagles last week, as a top team should. St Kilda are made from tougher stuff and Lyon is a master of defending small grounds. Expect this to be tight but the Giants to have enough talent to take this one out.
Kenny (20%) vs Ginni (80%)
Hinkley is right to say nothing about this match-up relative to last year’s end of match sledging. He has far more important things to worry about after succumbing to the Saints last week. The Hawks have enjoyed a week off which has given Ginni more time to work on his goal celebrations. The cart before the horse but the Hawks are getting away with it. They do have a hole to plug though with Will Day out for an extended break. It is no coincidence that their form turned when he returned to the team last year. Suspect through that time they have built more belief and can take some revenge for the elimination final loss last year.
Track Time
We go provincial this week with the major meeting in Victoria heading to Bendigo while the Championships continue at Randwick with a few top-level events on the program. We will focus on those events and take a look at both Quaddies.
Randwick
Race 6 – Australian Oaks (G1, 2400m, 3YO Fillies SW)
We saw Aeliana smash the boys last week in the Derby avoiding Treasurethe Moment (2). What a race that would have been and hopefully will be in the future. Expect the VRC Oaks winner Treasurethe Moment (2) to add to her collection. Always wary of the NZ contingent and Leica Lucy (1) has been dominant at home, gets JMac aboard. Belle Detelle (5) showed her staying prowess in winning last week and Dubai Goldrush (3) has been chasing Leica Lucy (1) home in her last couple.
Selections – 2-1-5-3
Race 7 – Sydney Cup (G1, 3200m, HCP)
It’s getting in pretty short but Alalcance (8) has led them a merry dance of late and can’t see the vanquished turning the tables. With that the best chances of beating her are Duke De Sessa (1) and Zardozi (6). The Duke was brave in the Tancred, he runs on speed so might not make things as easy for the favourite. A fourth in the Melbourne Cup is good form for this so Zardozi (6) must have some chance after running consistently at WFA in this campaign. Birdman (15) rattled home last week so the extra 600m will be to his liking. Hoping for a big result for Tajanis (14) where I know one of the connections. What a thrill to have a cup runner!
Selections – 8-6-1-15-14
Race 8 – Queen Elizabeth Stakes (G1, 2000m, WFA)
Via Sistina (12) was a short priced commodity in this race last year when Pride of Jenni put in one of the most amazing front running efforts ever to defeat her. Jenni is not here doubt there anyone capable of beating her this time. There a number of international runners that we are not sure of, could one spring an upset? We are sure that Dubai Honour (1) is pretty good and won the Tancred some question about coming back in distance but trust W Haggis to get it right. If there is a leader that will fight all the way it will be Deny Knowledge (14), ran extremely well in the Australian Cup while her conqueror Light Infantry Man (3) is in a rich vein of form. Only the barrier has Ceolwulf (4) out of the top four.
Selections – 12-1-14-3-4
Race 9 – Queen of the Turf Stakes (G1, 1600m, Fillies and Mares WFA)
CJW opted for this for Fangirl (1) over the Lizzie and all things being equal suspect it is the right choice. Coeur Volante (7) has class and will be better for the run in the Emancipation. Can’t ignore Steffi Magnetica (2) after the Doncaster win last week, but can she back it up? Another Prophet (13) has form around Aeliana which must be good for this.
Selections – 1-7-13-2
Quaddie Time
Bendigo
Leg 1 – 1, 2, 3, 13
Leg 2 – 2, 3, 4, 7, 8
Leg 3 – 2, 4, 8, 10, 12
Leg 4 – 12, 13
200 Combinations, $30 investment will return 15% of the dividend.
Randwick
Leg 1 – 1, 6, 8, 15
Leg 2 – 12
Leg 3 – 1, 7, 13
Leg 4 – 4, 5
24 Combinations, $30 investment will return 125% of the dividend
Go Blues, Go Tajanis!
Cheers, Sal
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You cannot be serious? “Compromises the fairness of the competition when both SA teams get 12 home games”. Some Victorian teams only leave Melbourne 5 or 6 times a year, year after year. Younger Collingwood blokes don’t know how to find the airport. Give me strength about fairness of the competition
*checks home and away fixtures. Carlton plays at Docklands seventeen times. Cruelly expected to go elsewhere for remaining handful of matches.
Really Sal? Gather Round is an additional round, not a replacement round. The only teams that could claim a disadvantage are those drawn against the two local sides.
All of the above Sal
Sal just imagine if it was a true national competition not a extended VFL all all teams played the same number of games home and away and at neutral venues – complaining a extra added round being played in – SA is absurd