Greetings Again
SA Champs ($1.78) vs WA Champs ($2.26)
Great wins from both Adelaide and Freo last week but just reckon the Crows had more merit with Freo getting plenty of favours as Eagles went down at such an alarming rate. While Adelaide have been a bit flukey within games their best has been very good and at Adelaide Oval suspect they will be consistent for long enough to win this one.
Copying Cats ($1.60) vs Blowing the Ugle ($2.62)
The Tigers looking to last year’s premiers for inspiration starting early on resting some of their older stars in Reiwoldt and Cotchin. Is it too much of a risk in such a big game against the Dogs who got back in the groove with a very special effort from Jamarra Ugle-Hagen? The potential for nasty weather gives Richmond an edge here, they have game built on chaos plus more regular games in such conditions. On the other have the Dogs game is more precise and predicated on the pristine surrounds of the Loungeroom. A critical game for both but just going with the Tiges.
Taking Stock ($1.57) vs Lukozade ($2.72)
The stamp Jamarra left last week was matched on the ground by the efforts of Jack Lokusius for the Suns in sinking the premiers. His team return to the Loungeroom where they fell away to the Bombers two weeks ago to face the pacesetters of the competition in St Kilda. They are getting even contributions across the field and Liam Stocker is benefitting from the time on the ground he is getting that never came at the Blues. The Suns were great last week but the drop off the week before is still a concern away from home. Reckon Stewy will be right onto that but still think the Saints at home will be too strong.
Demonised ($1.40) vs Luck of the Drew ($3.40)
The Swans get back after being poleaxed by the Demons last week, probably said more about Melbourne than Sydney. While Port get lucky and come up against their bunnies after falling away to their arch rivals last week. Kenny has prevailed over Horse in their last six encounters – it should be noted that the last four of those were in Adelaide. This one is at the SCG where Sydney are hard to beat and avoid being the Easter Bunnies.
Heppy Heppy Shake ($1.51) vs In Dissent ($2.88)
Brad Scott has backed Dyson Heppell despite noise on his place in the Bombers best 22, need to know more about who he is keeping about before writing off a great servant of the club. They take on the Giants who are still smarting after the controversy of the dissent decision last week. I don’t the mood would have improved after watching some of the antics in the Pies-Lions clash that did not go admonished. The game shapes up very similar to the Bombers-Suns clash two weeks ago, the intriguing factor being that GWS have won their last four over the Bombers. Looking further they are 8 from 10. The Giants are capable here, however reckon the Bombers might be a bit better than previous years and have the Loungeroom in their favour.
Winged ($10.50) vs Roo Beauty ($1.09)
The Eagles have been decimated with injury and should not present too much opposition for the rampaging Demons who found another cult hero in van Rooyen last week.
Cellar Dwellers ($1.23) vs Tassie Champs ($5.20)
Not sure the AFL expected this “blockbuster” to be so evenly matched with 17th playing 18th. The apprentice reigned over the master last with Sam Mitchell taking the points over Clarko of note he also took the points over Chris Scott last year. They only lost another two for the year! Not much has gone right for the Cats this year but they do have Jeremy Cameron, a match up with James Sicily would be a beauty. Suspect they might swap ladder positions after this.
Track Time
It was too good to last with Sydney weather intervening to deliver a heavy track last week and prospects the same for Day 2 of The Championships at Randwick. It makes selections tough but always look to visitors from across the ditch who can usually handle the challenge.
Race 6 – Australian Oaks (G1, 2400m, 3yo Fillies SW)
Pavitra (2) is a short priced favourite but with no form on heavy, her record warrants support but the odds are poisonous. On the other hand Pennyweka (1) is proven over the journey and ploughs through going, represents much better value. Then there is Fireburn (3) where there is some doubt about getting the trip but showed here ability in heavy going in winning the Slipper and the Sires last year. For the bolter in the field John Sargent has produced plenty of Oaks winners and Mountain Guest (11) might not have saluted the judge yet but might just bob up.
Selections – 1-3-2-11
Race 7 – Sydney Cup (G1, 3200m, HCP)
Is the weight too much for the Melbourne Cup winner in Gold Trip (1), it’s not the extra 2kg that bothers it is more about the weights being carried by a couple of rivals. The main one being the JP O’Brien trained Cleveland (11) who closed off nicely in the Tancred as a lead up to this and meets the winner 2kg better also. Give Surefire (7) a great chance also well drawn, well weighted and with Joao Moriera on board. Then High Emocean (12) was magnificent in the Melbourne Cup and will appreciate the heavy going. Plenty of other hopes.
Selections – 11-7-1-12
Race 8 – Queen Elizabeth Stakes (G1, 2000m, WFA)
The great lady is gone but not forgotten and the best chase the race named in her honour. The other G1s are wide reckon this comes down to one horse – Anamoe (1). Much coverage of Dubai Honor (2) as being a major threat, he is untried on the heavy where as Anamoe (1) is two from four. They are the standouts. The super consistent Cascadian (4) is ready to run a great race and Numerian (6) was good chasing him home in the Australian Cup. The Japanese raider Unicorn Lion (7) might just blow everyone away but happy to risk that with a rain affected surface.
Selections – 1-2-4-7
Race 9 – Queen of the Turf Stakes (G1, 1600m, Fillies and Mares WFA)
Do we trust the European form or look locally? The form of Alcohol Free (1) reads well and especially her first up record, she might just be too good. Locally and parochially Sirileo Miss (7) can’t be going any better she runs on the speed and sure to be around the mark. Pride of Jenni (12) will also make her own luck and take some chasing down, while Levante (3) is class mare from NZ.
Selections – 7-1-12-3
Quaddie Time
A pretty tough assignment at Randwick this week, but we will narrow the Lizzie down to the top two.
Leg 1 – 1-7-11-12-14
Leg 2 – 1-2
Leg 3 – 1-3-4-7-12
Leg 4 – 4-9
100 Combinations, a $30 investment will return 33.3% of the dividend.
Yay Blues,
Cheers, Sal
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