Greetings All,
Rarely in agreement with Eddie Everywhere but in lockstep in the idea of shifting the footy season back two weeks. Let the NRL have their time early, get out of the way of the Grand Prix all makes sense. At the other end it does get in the way of a couple of key race meetings, however suspect the racing clubs can work their timetable to run on the Sunday for the Turnbull Stakes and Caulfield Guineas meetings.
The other opportunity for league is to completely revamp the way they fixture games, even restructure the competition into conferences and provide greater fairness and transparency to the process. I can hear the howls of “Don’t copy the Americans”. But don’t forget Eddie’s idea is not about our game but the NFL game on its way to the MCG in 2026.
We do have our own big game to kick off the round,
The Big Steele (79%) vs The Big ……..? (21%)
Read with some bemusement the reasons why Elijah Holland will not be selected in the senior lineup this week. Can’t disagree with not having match conditioning, but to protect ‘selection integrity’ – Pleeeease. It has always been harder to get out of the Carlton team than break in. Despite the poor performances in the opening three weeks the only players to be axed have been role players at best anyway. Senior players are just not being held accountable. They face up to the Pies who got home in another close one over the Dogs through the perennial Steele Sidebottom’s heroics. The Pies have an advantage of a week off while Carlton come off a six-day break after falling apart late also against the Dogs. That game was played in stifling conditions in the Loungeroom, recovery will be interesting. Expect Collingwood to maintain the good recent record over the Blues.
Tom Tom (95%) vs Deespair (5%)
Simon Goodwin has been pretty forthright in his assessment of the Dees, can his charges respond as they head to the Cattery? Geelong will be pleased to get back home after going down meritoriously to the premiers. They will also be pleased to get Tom Stewart back into the team. The last Demon win here was back in their premiership year of 2021, don’t think they are going well enough to repeat either feat.
The Welcome Matt (62%) vs The Rankine File (38%)
Two undefeated teams go at it with two of the brightest young stars in the game on either side. Matt Rowell has been outstanding in the clinches for the Gold Coast while Izak Rankine continually reminds them of what they lost. Not that the Suns had any chance of keeping him. We are still not clear on the merit of all the vanquished, but all wins have been convincing. Opposing selection dilemnas on either side with the Crows needing to find a replacement for the injured Rachele, while the Suns might have to squeeze someone out for the returning Ainsworth. The Suns have a good record here over Adelaide and suspect it will continue.
Bottom End (1%) vs Top End (99%)
These two bookended the competition in 2024 and trajectories are similar in 2025. The Lions have mauled the Tiger Cubs in their last two meetings, admittedly at the Gabba. I don’t think the MCG will make much difference.
Cool Hand Luke (25%) vs Amartey Party (75%)
Luke Parker goes up against the club he served so diligently for 293 games. Can he help bring them down? The Swans were terrific getting over the line against Freo with Joel Amartey’s late goal, they also have the benefit of a week off. North though have been competitive in their losses and showed a killer instinct over Melbourne. While the Swans should regain McDonald they lose the spark of Papley up forward. While the Swans have a terrific record in the Loungeroom, reckon the Kangaroos are going well enough to get this one.
Kelly Gang (99.7%) vs What’s up Gov? (0.03%)
Josh Kelly and the Giants could not handle the Hawks in Launceston, that has been a graveyard for most visiting teams. This week they host West Coast who go in without their defensive rock in Jeremy McGovern – it won’t be pretty!
Bombed Out (75%) vs Glenelg Saints (25%)
The AFL calls it a quirk, it is ridiculous that St Kilda will play 3 of their first five matches in Adelaide. This time it is against Port who were not good enough against the Bombers last week. It will be a very long season if the Kenny question gets raised after every loss. Both teams are waiting for players to recover from injuries, Zak Butters probable return will certainly help. Suspect Port will do their usual home ground thing.
Kings of the West (70%) vs Sons of the West (30%)
Freo reigned in the derby now they host the Bulldogs who had a great victory over the Blues. The Dogs recovered from a significant early deficit and overall must be pleased with their season so far given the injuries to key players. Freo gradually took control of the Derby to run all over the Eagles. Serong and his midfield cohort were dominant and expect them to be good enough to win this one.
Track Time
The spotlight moves fairly and squarely to Randwick for The Championships where we have four top level races and a handy support program, reckon a few southern raiders have good chances. Always wary of the weather up there at this time of year, we saw last week’s meeting postponed and run on Tuesday. This week looks safe at the moment. The support meeting in Melbourne is at Caulfield with a couple of Group 3 events and a quaddie to nail!
Randwick
Race 6 – Sires Produce Stakes (G1, 1400m, 2YO SW)
Wodeton (2) was only just edged out in the Slipper and makes a worthy favourite here. At the price differential siding with the dominant winner of the Victorian Sires Produce in Vinrock (3), inside draw some concern but trusting Zahra to find the right spot. State Visit (5) could be the big improver after running home strongly last start and should relish the extra 200m and if we like big closers nothing was rattling home better in the Slipper than Rivellino (1).
Selections – 3-2-5-1
Race 7 – TJ Smith Stakes (G1, 1200m, WFA)
The premier sprint of the carnival with a clear changing of the guard with a number of retirements such as I Wish I Win and Bella Nipotina. Is it a matter of pick your star? Going with Jimmysstar (2) provided there is enough speed on which we should have in a big Group One, he should be finishing hard. Will have to catch the other one though in Joliestar (7) who was superb in the Newmarket, can she back it up? This is not the main target for Overpass (1) but he has a great fresh record and Briassa (5) just has a great record. Leaves out the other mares who are very good and the colts who have not yet produced in open company. Great renewal!
Selections – 2-7-1-5
Race 8 – The Doncaster Mile (G1, 1600m, HCP)
As usual looking down in the weights for these big handicaps, problem is that a couple of them are emergencies. Like both Rise at Dawn (21 em1) and Swiftfalcon (22 em2). So where else? Not too far, Firestorm (19) was terrific in the Coolmore and gets in with 50kg and Linebacker (20) has beaten the best of the 3yo crop and runs well here. The toppies deserve their allocations and there are not many better triers than Gringotts (2) who found the magic to win his first Group One last start. Not much between Another Wil (1) and Tom Kitten (3) except they a drawn on either side of the track, the inside draw might favour the latter.
Selections – 19-20-2-3-1
Race 9 – ATC Australian Derby (G1, 2400m, 3YO SW)
Great to an almost capacity field here. Might be wearing the Big V but like the price and chances of Shanwah (4) a big step up but this was always the target race and B Shinn aboard should give him every chance. It has also been the main target for VRC Derby winner Goldrush Guru (2 ),was going OK before getting it all wrong last start. This has been a great race for the raiders from across the ditch, Willydoit (1) was a strong winner of the NZ Derby a couple of weeks ago. The filly Aeliana (18) was not far away from Broadsiding in the Rosehill Guineas, she must rate a chance on that form.
Selections – 4-2-1-18
Quaddie Time
Caulfield
Leg 1 – 1, 3, 4, 5, 12
Leg 2 – 1, 7, 10, 11
Leg 3 – 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 8
Leg 4 – 1, 9
240 Combinations, $30 investment will return 12.5% of the dividend.
Well, if we are following Randwick we might as well have one there too!
Randwick
Leg 1 – 1, 2, 5, 7, 8
Leg 2 – 1, 2, 3, 19, 20 – include 21, 22 if they run.
Leg 3 – 1, 2, 4, 18
Leg 4 – 1, 3
200 Combinations, $30 investment will return 15% of the dividend.
Go Blues, Go Shanwah!
Cheers, Sal
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Agree entirely on revamping the fixture. Two groups based on previous year’s finishing position. 18, 20 or 22 rounds would work with everyone playing everyone twice in their group, and playing their ‘equivalent’ clubs in the other group (twice). Final 4 (or final 5, thereby extending finals to 5 weeks) to be played within each group. Preliminary finals to be played against qualifyers from the other group (crossover). Winners in the GF, which might, or might not, be 2 teams from the same original group. Clubs ‘toggle’ between groups each year based on where they finish the year before.