Greetings All,
A tough week for the schedule in Melbourne with the footy coming up against the F1 Grand Prix. With all the timeslots available, not quite sure why the Dees and Swans at the ‘G’ have been scheduled at the same time as the main race. The MCG has a full schedule so it had to be on the Sunday but surely the 1:10pm slot would be better for the fans. But then again who does the schedule – AFL or the broadcaster?
Bevvy Time ($2.50) vs Where There’s a Will ($1.66)
Will Ashcroft showed his wares last week in a solid home performance for the Lions, they need to bring to the Loungeroom this week against the winless Bulldogs. Their supporters are split on whether Beveridge should have had a contract extension, they had to back him or sack him. Backing a coach is pretty easy to get out with the 6 month limit on payouts. The bigger question is whether their swap of midfield talent in Hunter and Dunkley for ‘structure’ players Lobb and Jones was the right move. Probably not much that could be done on Dunkley, but both mids are in their prime. Rory and Liam are both over 30. Very high expectations – so they need to win this. Not sure they are going well enough and the Lions should have them covered.
Fly Zone ($1.46) vs Slung ($3.05)
The Party Pies are all the rage with Craig McRae giving licence for his charges just to have fun. They take on the Tigers who are wounded and suspended losing Short, Martin, Hopper and Broad this week. Both teams like to play a fast game which will make it exciting, a bit of rain around adds to the intrigue. The Tiges need to match it in the middle with the Pies and generally have the capacity to do that, however missing Dusty takes a bit of magic away. Losing Broad hurts the defence but they do play to the system. I suspect individually they handle them but Collingwood have so many weapons coming out of midfield. At the other end the Pies will have their hands full with Samson Ryan stretching the opposition supporting Lynch and Riewoldt. Swaying with the Pies who have the better form and healthier list.
Launceston ($2.60) vs Hobart ($1.61)
The two sponges of Tasmania head down there to do battle. The Hawks have stripped themselves bare – while there might be a strategy there will also need to be patience. North have been patient and will go 3-0.
Green Energy ($2.60) vs Mr Ed ($1.61)
Tom and Toby have been the standout performers for the Giants, this week they get Kelly and Whitfield back to strengthen their running game. In both games so far they have conceded big quarters to the opposition. They face the Blues who did shake off the monkey last week despite Vossy saying there wasn’t one. Charlie’s five were crucial as was the effort of his older brother Ed who shut out one the keys to the Cats. The Blues should have the edge here provided they can win more of the contest in the middle and not let the Tsunami run. Getting George Hewett will certainly help there.
Sesquincentanarians ($1.81) vs Party Poopers? ($2.16)
Not sure who thought this would be 2nd vs 3rd before the season started! The Saints celebrate 150 years and two on the trot against the undefeated Bombers who are out to rain on their parade. While you can only beat what is out in front of you the St Kilda scalps are a bit more impressive than the Bombers although all of the vanquished are yet to win a game. That maybe in their favour the loss of Jack Steele is not. Their defence has been outstanding and miserly in the confines of the Loungeroom the open spaces of the MCG are harder to shut down. Those couple of factors have me just swaying to the Bombers.
Jailbirds ($1.48) vs Casual Workers ($3.05)
Port get to wear their original SANFL strip for the Showdown, not sure it should make them play any better. The Crows have just turned up part-time in their games so far, their best has been more than competitive but have faded away in both starts. Reckon they can go for longer this week but suspect Port will hit back after the mauling from the Pies. Always tough but expect the Port response to be good enough to win this.
Dusk ($3.20) vs Jeremy ($1.44)
The season will set quickly for the Suns if they cannot turn their form around. Competitive for most of the game last week they turned it up late. They host the premiers who are also smarting after two losses. At the mansion Gold Coast are capable at their best, their best will also include someone to look after Jeremy Cameron who was simply sublime last week. Not sure they have that player so going with the Cats.
Gawn ($1.87) vs Pace Setters ($2.10)
Max is gorn so how fortuitous that the Dees were able to get Grundy from the Pies. Reckon there is a bit of work to do on connection with the midfield, but don’t expect that to take too long. Reckon there might be a light for the Dees at the end of the tunnel. They take on the Swans who have flexed their muscles against a couple of the lesser lights, this is a return to the scene of …Robbie Williams … we don’t want to mention the game. While Melbourne were poor last week their finish when the lights came back on set the tone for this week and expect them to go on with it.
What’s the Point ($1.49) vs Another JJ ($2.96)
Whether the umpires got it right or wrong, there is no doubt that Freo got it wrong. They have just not been daring enough in either game so far. On the other hand West Coast did get their game flowing and pile on eight for a quarter. Jamaine Jones running riot off half back not dissimilar to another JJ in 2016. If that can be sustained no reason they can’t win this week.
Track Time
The big races are over for Melbourne and we head to Royal Randwick for The Championships over the next two weeks. So far the weather has not been a factor for Sydney’s carnival but we might have some to deal with this week.
Royal Randwick
Race 6 – Sires Produce Stakes (G1, 1400m, 2yo SW)
Not much between the top two here in Cylinder (1) and Don Corleone (2), they both ran well in the Slipper but no match for the winner and just think the Don represents better value. Maharba (5) was not far off the Slipper winner the start prior and looks a good each way proposition here and the VRC Sires winner Veight (4) would almost be the pick if not for the wide barrier.
Selections – 2-1-5-4
Race 7 – TJ Smith Stakes (G1, 1200m, WFA)
Has Nature Strip (1) got another big race in him? On immediate past form it is hard to think he can. He does get his ideal conditions with a bit jar out of the track so he gets his chance here. There are a couple of class 3yo to contend with in Giga Kick (10) and In Secret (15) they are on the rise and have great chances. As does Passive Aggressive (13) who won last start and has a terrific record on soft tracks. Could easily have missed it all, great race!
Selections – 1-15-10-13
Race 8 – The Doncaster (G1, 1600m, HCP)
There is class at the top but can Alligator Blood (1) or Mr Brightside (2) overcome the impost, prefer the latter with a great chance to repeat last . At the other end Protagonist (17) looks thrown in, might want it further but it takes a tough one to win this race. Nugget (11) is also down in the weights but will need a good steer and good luck from an outside alley. Zougotcha (16) is a quality filly has the CJW polish and also looks a great chance.
Selections – 17-2-16-11
Race 9 – ATC Australian Derby (G1, 2400m, 3yo SW)
So much will be tempo dependent, hopefully with a large field their will be plenty of pace in the race and enough to suit GSOB’s Pericles (4) over Sharp ‘n’ Smart (1) who has a tricky draw. Mark Zahra has delayed his suspension for this one race with Elliptical (3) his only ride for the day and Manzoice (2) has proven himself over the derby trip. Wary of any Kiwis that have crossed ditch to plunder.
Selections – 4-1-3-2
Quaddie Time
Sydney
Leg 1 – 1, 2, 4, 5
Leg 2 – 1, 3, 6, 10, 13, 15
Leg 3 – 1, 2, 3, 4, 9
Leg 4 – 1, 2
240 Combinations, $30 Investment returns 12.5% of the dividend
Go Blues,
Cheers, Sal
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