Round 3 – Sal’s Preview – An optical illusion

Greetings All,

 

The optics of the game are critical as covered last week which is why the league need to act on Chris Scott with a bit more than a wet newspaper after his confrontation with the Brisbane players on Friday night.  The look of coaches facing off with the opposition is  poor and if that examples is set the consequences down the chain could be a lot worse.  Reckon his brother Brad as head of AFL Victoria might even have a quiet word.  While coaches are combative by nature they need to put themselves above that for the good of the game and the good of their own team.  Equivalently players need to pull their heads and not needle coaches.  There is plenty of argy-bargy on the field without having a crack at the opposition coach.

 

As for the all the discussion about one missed decision in that game – what about the thirty or so other wrong decisions through the weekend.  Umpires – We can’t have the game without them and their just is not enough of them.

 

Blue Murderers ($1.69) vs Stranded ($2.40)

 

A tough week for Brisbane, stranded in Melbourne and having one their prime fixtures moved from the Gabba.  Meanwhile the Pies got to feast on the Blues last week responding well to the challenges presented from the week prior.  The inclusion of Sidebottom added class and depth to the midfield.  The Lions will be challenged in the ruck with McInerny out and Grundy resurgent.  Collingwood can ill afford to lose a forward like Jamie Elliott.  The elephant in the room is how have Brisbane handled the challenge of the week.  Not many more level heads around than Chris Fagan, reckon he will have them right and that they can notch their first win for 2021.

 

Noble Rot ($11.00) vs In Bont We Trust ($1.09)

 

David Noble’s defense of the Good Friday slot for the Roos comparing them with the Blues in Round One is nonsense.  While the Blues have stunk up Round One, they still turn up in their droves, not sure what attendance we will have Friday but pretty sure most will be in Red, White and Blue!  He has bigger things to worry about as they rebuild.  Up against the Dogs who were terrific last week with The Bont icing the game.  Reckon they ice this one and wrap in a bow pretty early on.

 

Tex to the Top ($2.04) vs Knees Up ($1.92)

 

Great test for both teams who would be pleased with their seasons so far.  The big plus for the Crows is the resurgence of Tex Walker, the Suns have Collins to take him but losing Day takes away their flexibility.  Day’s injury along with Budarik made the win over North pretty costly.  At home with the Crows.

 

Dusty ($1.28) vs Buddy ($4.40)

 

The two most dominant players in the last ten years get to face off.  Not sure it is much a competition now, Buddy just having too many fitness issues while Dusty is pretty much unbreakable!  Sydney have been impressive so far but will meet their biggest test.  Haven’t seen enough to think they will be good enough to beat Richmond, yet.

 

Pull the Drapes ($3.75) vs Demonised ($1.33)

 

The Bombers made the call to go with Sam Draper (and rightfully so) but now have to contend with few weeks on the sidelines, the man most likely to have filled in last year Shaun McKernan will line for the opposition.  His Saints were put to the sword by the Demons and will keen to make up for that loss.  The Saints had no match for Gawn, this week will be easier in that area and expect them to be too strong for the Bombers.

 

Missing a Shuey ($1.98) vs FTBB? ($1.99)

 

Another ripping contest – West Coast have not been at their best with an unconvincing victory at home over the Suns and a gallant defeat to the Dogs away.  No better litmus test than Port.  With Yeo and Shuey still out the Eagles are a bit thin in the middle while Port can look forward the return of Rozee.  Will give that forward line even more pace and skill, the Eagles defense is high quality but just might have their hands full with pace of the opposition.  Their own forwards cause plenty of challenges and the perceived weakness of Port’s defense is their work in the air.  Allir certainly helps out there.  Port have played on flat tracks and beaten up on lowly opposition so far, I reckon they might take a more important scalp this week.

 

Fateague ($1.51) vs Fyfeless ($2.82)

 

The Blues host Freo in yet another critical game for the club.  All the Pre-season hype is in tatters after two poor performances.  Teague’s belief in the side might have got him the job it might lose it if he doesn’t get honest with the capability and stop spinning crap.  Much discussion in Cripps’ form, there are so many more that warrant discussion.  On the hand they take on a bunch of rippers that genuinely have a crack, the loss of Fyfe will be an issue but I reckon they will just see the challenge and take it on. They just smashed the Giants last week.  One hopes the discussion inside the Blues is different to rhetoric we get and if that’s the case they can win.  If not we’ve been down this road before.

 

Orange Ripple ($2.42) vs Maximised ($1.68)

 

Now for GWS!  They were downright insipid and will quickly present the AFL with the next big problem.  They have not really got a following and whatever they do have will diminish if they are not competitive. The outflow of talent has become a procession.  They face the Demons figuratively and literally who executed perfectly against the Saints.  The trip not usually a happy one but they are now even more trustworthy than GWS.

 

Scott Free ($1.30) vs Break of Day ($4.10)

 

The Hawks have a realistic expectation of where they are as a team, a sound base from what to build on.  The injury to Will Day doesn’t help, but they already know he can play and will be part of future success.  The Cats have benefitted from the Hawks position with Isaac Smith joining them in their quest to win a flag this year.  Suspension and injuries are getting in the way but they should still be too good for the Hawks this week.

 

Track Time

 

Races back in town this weekend with the traditional Easter Meeting at Caulfield, while we have day two of the Rosehill carnival for our Group One events.  At Caulfield we have one at longer odds with All of Brighton (R5, #17) some good opposition but reckon he is OK.  At the other end of the scale Alfa Oro (R6, #6)  could be a star and wins this if he is.

 

Rosehill

 

Two group one events with open fields.

 

Race 6 – Vinery Stud Stakes (G1, 2000m, Fillies SW)

 

Interesting flip of hops here with JMac going onto Personal (1) replacing Oliver who goes onto Impecunious (8) leaving KMac on my top tip Hungry Heart (3).  The New Zealanders regularly plunder the Sydney carnival so respect for Force of Will (7) and Harmony Rose (2) always runs well and is well drawn.

 

Selections – 3-7-1-2

 

Race 7 – Tancred Stakes (G1, 2400m, WFA)

 

A really tough one to pick, get the winner and it should do you well.  My selection is Toffee Tongue (13) a winner here and the distance should suit.  The Chosen One (3) could be the NZer that gets us while Mirage Dancer (2) will appreciate the journey.  Moody running Nickajack Cave (8) for his first run in Australia has me wary.  Plenty of other hopes and not many would surprise.

 

Selections – 13-3-2-8

 

Quaddie (Sydney)

 

If we manage to get this the payout should nice

 

Leg 1 – 1,2,3,4,7,8

Leg 2 – 1,2,3,8,13

Leg 3 – 4,5,12,15

Leg 4 – 5,9,10

 

Go Blues,

 

 

For more of Sal’s work, click HERE.

 

 

 

 

 

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