Round 2 – Sal’s Preview: Bumping in early

 

 

Greetings All,

 

Short and Sharp this week.  Once again the MRO or tribunal dither over the ‘classification’ of the offences of McAdam and Pickett.  Classifying them as ‘careless’ is just mystifying both players intentionally launched themselves at the victim and it was sheer good fortune that neither came out of the contact injured.  Copped the ‘full’ wrath purely for the fact his victim required time off the ground, while Bailey Smith played.  This is one where the NRL system works much better.  They call it a shoulder charge, the player is put on report immediately or even sin-binned and sanctions are stronger.

 

Lynched ($2.54) vs Hungover? ($1.63)

For the third game in succession the Blues fluffed their lines late and paid the price through Tom Lynch, while the Cats fell to a very impressive Collingwood.  Is there a hangover?  I doubt that but the loss of Tom Stewart really affects their defence and leadership.  The McKay-Curnow double act needs to be more productive this week, while at the other end McGovern will need to be much cleaner than last week.  Expect the Cats to hit back but the Blues to make a statement and win a close one.

 

Powered Off ($2.12) vs Back on Trac ($1.87) 

Port deserve plenty of credit for shutting down the Lions, but they were very poor going down by a big margin.  They get back to the Gabba and host Melbourne who were very impressive taking apart the much touted Bulldogs.  They lose Pickett but apart from that have only a fringe player unavailable.  The Lions lose Coleman with concussion but could get Ah Chee and Zorko back.  It’s hard to pick the Lions after last week, however they are different unit at home (which has to change) and reckon they might take this one.

 

Tommy Gun ($1.63) vs Blow the Horne ($2.56)

Enormous win for Collingwood with Tom Mitchell reminding the footy world there is no better accumulator of the footy.  Plenty of commentary last year about his possessions not doing damage, might have had a bit to do with the talent around him.  Meanwhile in Adelaide Jason Horne-Francis looked right at home, Junior Rioli did not look out of place either.  The Pies at the ‘G’ though are a big test – expect a bold showing from Kenny’s boys but don’t think it will be good enough.

 

Chocolates ($2.60) vs Dusted Off ($1.61) 

After a dominant first half Adelaide melted in the Sun, they had every advantage except the ground but just could not execute when it mattered.  The raving about Izak Rankine needs to be tempered, he starred early but was profligate.  Faded out badly – as did plenty more.  They face the Tigers who would have loved seeing Dusty rejuvenated – reckon he has lost some of his power and range.  Has lost none of his smarts and ability to make the right decision.  They might have a couple of other vets to look at closely though.  Adelaide’s best can win this, but recovery from the conditions last week will be tough so suspect Richmond will take this one.

 

Lobbed Out ($1.53) vs Back to the Future ($2.78)

Lobbe out of the Dogs line-up probably balances them a bit better, they would love Weightman to be the replacement but still a while away.  They may also lose Jones but may not be an issue against the Saints who are missing their key forwards.  So we saw Ross Lyon manufacture a game perfectly in his style – sure to be plenty that don’t like it but a win is a win and they will need a few tricks until some of the cavalry return.  Probably helped that Freo played into their hands, suspect Bevo will not allow that and ensure some speed in the game.  If they can get that speed then the Dogs probably win.

 

Whacko Jacko ($1.18) vs Sheezel Right ($5.90)

If JHF had a dream start at Port then Luke Jackson had a ‘mare at Freo.  The words ‘buy on potential’ ring true – very early days.  He wasn’t helped with the poor movement of the ball from his team on a ground that is the easiest to clog up.  They host North who have moved quickly to box up the Sheezel after a stunning debut.  Expect a bolder showing at home from Fremantle.

 

Buddy Doing Time ($1.11) vs The Eight Shaper ($8.40)

Buddy’s transgression also needs comments, for a player of his experience and stature it was a poor and unnecessary act.  If the act really only deserved one week, he deserved another for stupidity.  At least he will only miss the Hawks, who will be creating an issue with the competition balance.  They are entitled to run their strategy to build from the bottom up, however in doing so give the clubs they play twice a great opportunity to not just bank an extra win but to also pump up their percentage.  Not sure the Demons need that kind of help!  Sydney wins.

 

March Premiers ($1.61) vs Over Dew ($2.58)

Results at opposite ends of the spectrum for the Bombers and Suns.  Essendon took full toll of their advantage with a percentage fillip against the Hawks.  While the Suns just did not shine against Sydney.  On form it would that Essendon should go into April atop the league.  The Suns are made of sterner staff than what they dished up last week, expecting a much improved performance and good enough to take the chocolates.

 

Simpson Deserted ($2.02) vs Up a Cog ($1.86)

Steve Coniglio might not toss the coin, nevertheless he showed plenty of leadership to dominate the middle and provide service to the man who does toss the coin.  They head to the West with a couple of extra challenges, first of all recovery from a game played in oppressive heat, then cover the loss of Kelly and Whitfield.  West Coast may or may not be a challenge, they did come back to nearly snatch it from the Roos.  That effort for the whole game gets them over the line.

 

Track time

Time is tight so not much of a look at the neddies.  Group One events on Friday Night then Saturday at Flemington and Rosehill.  Early predictions Imperatriz (MV, R7#11) has the form for the Williams Reid (G1,1200m, WFA) but looks pretty short against this lot – be happy to go with Moody-Nolen on Chain of Lightning (MV, R7#12) each way.  Cascadian (Flem R7#1) backs up in the Australian Cup (G1, 2000m, WFA) off a super run last week in a race of many chances.  We go to Rosehill where the Vinery Stud (G1, 2000m, Fillies SW) has a Kiwi with a picket fence as a short priced favourite in Prowess (RH, R7#1).  They do cross the ditch and plunder the Sydney carnival.  Vow and Declare (RH, R8#3) gets on a favoured dry surface in the Tancred Stakes (G1, 2400m, WFA) but will need a good steer from the outside gate, probably an each way play there.  King Frankel (RH,R#10) is in good form, this is a step up but looks a fair price.

 

Go Blues,

 

Cheers, Sal

 

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