True Believers, all.
This week:
Round 19. Five to go.
Versus Carlton at the G.
Saturday, 8 August,
1.45pm (following an historic curtain-raiser Two’s game against Carlton (Northern Blues) bounce at 10.20am).
Us and Them:
I’m not 100% mathematically certain, but I suspect if we drop any more games we are headed to ‘Pre-Season 2016’. However, as we all recognise, the Premiership is one thing, but beating Carlton can figure highly in the list of things that mark a successful season (along with beating Essendon and Geelong, for some of us). We beat Carlton by 75 points in Round 5. Betting gives us a slight (?) edge: $1.22 vs $4.35. But, yes, we were favourites last week, and the week before. Interestingly both teams are coming off fairly depressing recent histories: Carlton are 3:14 and are coming off five Losses, since beating the GC and Port in Rounds 12 and 13 respectively. We, of course, are 8:9 (after having been 8:3 a few short weeks ago) and are coming off six straight Losses. Buck’s comments on AFL 360 are worth listening to.
Them: Carlton’s year has been pretty awful. They are sitting 16th heading towards the Off Season. My Carlton-supporting colleague has moved away, so I can’t seek his input. Check what Natoli has to say (link below). Of significance to us: no Daisy, no Judd, no Malthouse.
Us: We are sitting at 11th (not 9th, as I’d expected and predicted), still one and a half games outside the Eight. So it is 11th versus 16th. We have five games in which to look at selections and the game plan to take us into and through the Finals – we should actively pursue these, now. A list of things to do this week; following on (and not too dissimilar) from the week before (as we didn’t actually perform at all well last week (or the week before)) – standard problems:
Forward Line. White – stays OUT. Karnezis – IN. Pathway to goal needs to be multi-pronged, not a single path. Each major target (Moore, Karnezis and Grundy / Witts) needs to be surrounded by the ‘crumbers’. Elliott should be considered a variation of the major targets – yes, he can take a screamer, but doesn’t lead well – more ‘chance’ and the specky;
Midfield. Adams – stays IN, Dwyer – IN. Tagging roles. Onto whom? Not sure;
Backline. Greater speed into the Backline – Scharenberg (stays IN), Reid IN (my preference is to have him Back rather than Forward) and Marsh IN, vice Tooves and Browny and someone else. There were way too many occasions when Footscray and Melbourne’s drive out of the Centre or forward from their Backline found unattended targets and easy goals – heartbreakingly easy given how hard we had to fight to score from our Entries into our 50 in both games. And let’s be fair, Frost onto Dawes is a bit of a mixed weight division challenge – Brown would have been fairer;
Kick-ins – these were awful last week. We need to have a plan (with variations) and to implement that plan (for a comparison, have a look at Heater Shaw’s kick-ins for GWS. This should be a ‘team’ plan; not just left up to the unfortunate kicker. We need to claim the ball (the same as any turnover) when a Behind is scored and step up from there, going forward under our control. It is not enough to give it back, almost straight away; and
Other. Trav back? Maybe, but might give Karnezis a run (as above). Elliott in the run-on side – pretty certain, much as I’m not a huge fan.
What else? Yep, as always, ‘ferocity’, the attack on the ball, for the whole game. We need to win, and win well.
Previews and match details:
Dave Natoli’s preview will be somewhere there later in the week and is always worth a read;
Teams. Tomorrow, after 6.00pm at http://www.collingwoodfc.com.au/.
TV? Free to Air, but not live – nearly 2 hours later. 7mate from 3.30pm. Not sure why. Maybe it’s a repeat of ‘Days of Our Lives’ or ‘Australia’s Voice’ or whatever these programs people watch (for reasons unknown to me) are. Find a friend with Fox; from 1.30pm. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to find some coverage of the Two’s game there too – Anyone know?
Weather? 7 – 14 deg, partly cloudy. Areas of morning fog (not that relevant in the afternoon, unless you live in Canberra and are trying to get into / out of the place before lunch). Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Light winds.
My predictions? Pies by 57; BOG – Adams; Goals: Moore – 6, Karnezis – 6, Elliott – 2. Your predictions?
Other:
‘Eddie Watch’: 17 years in the Chair; a great performance, sir. Well done and thank you. And for some background for all of us – a ready reckoner of previous Magpie bosses.
Twos: Great performance, apart from the Last Quarter, on the weekend, briefly addressed in my Monday’s update. Check out who the Best were (again). Watch for next week – Caff back, Freeman in? Could be interesting;
Umpires. How many are out there now? 3 – Field Umpires, 1 – Emergency, 2 Goal Umpires (plus another Emergency), 4 Boundary Umpires for a total of 11 (plus Interchange Stewards, if you want to count them). And another Field Umpire to come making 12? (Also see http://aflua.com.au/wp-content/uploads/Round-18-2015.pdf)
Beams – Remember what I said about “damaged goods” in the lead to Beam’s trade to Brisbane? I told you so. And in that big ’roundabout trade swap’ we ended up getting Varcoe and Crisp. Anyone want to revisit that? Not likely.
I hope a few of you are going to the games.
Maintain the Faith! Go Pies.
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