Round 16 – Sal’s Preview: Like Tiger moths to the flame

 

 

Greetings All,

 

Being some of the most privileged people in the country through the current pandemic could contain the exuberance of youth with a couple of Tiger cubs unable to resist the temptations of the Gold Coast.  Stiff penalties for the players and club but not sure it derails the Richmond campaign with neither of the young bucks in the best 22, the fine probably hurts more for the organisation in 2021.  Could not have occurred at a better time for Annastacia who took the opportunity to do a bit more grandstanding.

 

Three rounds to go and the finals spots all still up for grabs – perhaps the seventeen round season has some merit.  And extra five games might see them spread out and more meaningless games – still reckon it should be 22 rounds though.

 

Lost the Majak ($8.40) v West Off ($1.12)

 

The Roos have had a tough year and absolutely shredded by injuries and taking on the top team will be a big challenge.  The coach has relented to bring back Jared Polec, he has been in the spotlight of late but can inject some pace and class getting the skipper Ziebell is handy.  That has been at the cost of Majak Daw.  Hinckley talks of the challenge with North tearing them apart last year and coming off an embarrassing defeat, the reality if Port were to succumb here then they are pretending at the top of the table.  Interesting ruck duels with Port dropping Westhoff leaving Lycett to go mano-e-mano with Goldy.  Can’t see a repeat of last year’s result.

 

Maxxed Out ($1.30) v Crow Eaten ($4.10)

 

The Hawks became the first victim of the Crows for 2020 and are now playing out the season to learn more about their list despite Clarko’s protestations.  His squeal about a compromised draft might be valid but it has not bothered him till now.  They take on the Saints who have lost their last couple and a couple of players including Max King looking a bit tired.  They really need to get a win on the board and halt the slide.  Just think St Kilda will be too quick for the Hawks and take this one.

 

Purring ($1.32) v And He’s Gone ($4.00)

 

The Bombers have dished up a variety of performances across the season and even across a single games if you consider the win over Hawthorn.  They challenge the Eagles but the cost was high with Andrew McGrath out for the season.  He was the bonus they received after the drug scandal penalty.  They face the Cats who are purring along with a pretty healthy list.  At their best Essendon can challenge, if Daniher and Stringer can work together make it tough for the Geelong defense.  But so much has to go right and don’t think it can without Andy.

 

Western Melbourne ($2.34) v Western Australia ($1.71)

 

The Eagles got one on the board away from the west and take on the inconsistent Bulldogs.  They do it without skipper Luke Shuey succumbing to a pair of hammys while the Dogs also lose Wood and Vandermeer who have a hamstring injury each.  The Eagles also missing Yeo and Kennedy so they have challenges.  However they still have Nic Nat who might find himself taking on Libba in the ruck at some stages.  Not without a chance the Dogs who are well coached and have some tricks, just think that too much has to go right for them to win.

 

Track Time

 

We are back at Moonee Valley with the rail back in the true with some chance of rain coming.  Some concerns about the wear and recovery from the meeting a couple of weeks ago forced to be abandoned because of the state of the track, the inside could have an advantage however the frying winds this probably balances it out.  Just a couple of group races but some high quality returning as they line up the big races on the way.  Makes for a tough day to find ‘em but we’ll have a crack.

 

Plenty have been waiting for the return of How Womantic (R1, #3)  she is 4 from 5 with a win over this course.  She is short enough though.  Might be better value on Cordilla (R1, #8) who will carry a 3½ kg advantage but has not seen this track.  The second is open as Sydney Heads so going with the track specialist in Sovereign Award (R2, #6) undefeated here and gets a nice barrier.  Would have put Skyman (R2, #2) above if not for the barrier.  And the next for the 3yo even tougher Flinders River (R3, #2) looks well weighted and has seen The Valley, at a bit longer intrigued by PG Moody’s Best Ever (R3, #8) a winner at its only start on the synthetic at Pakenham.  Good Luck!  Not many missed the effort of Junipal (R4, #6), the satchel swingers haven’t and he is a short priced favourite.  Reckon I want at least a 3 at the start to back him, good first up but unplaced second up.  Odeon (R4, #3) was well supported last start but did not cope with the heavy track, this will be more to his liking.  Happy to stick with Showmanship (R5, #6)  after the devastating win at Caulfield.

 

Race 6 – McEwen Stakes (G2, 1000m, WFA)

 

Hanseatic (8) gets the 3yo weight and is undefeated first up and over the distance – a very good case for favouritism.  The mares Brooklyn Hustle (7)  and Bella Vella (5) have great form at this track.  Brooklyn Hustle’s win last start highlighted her capability here and reckon this race maps similarly.  If they overdo it upfront then Bons Away (3) will be storming home..

 

Selections – 8-9-5-3

 

Going with Night Raid (R7, #9) in The Atlantic Jewel for the fillies, big step up from Tatura but who am I to doubt the wisdom of the Price/Kent training regime.

 

Race 8 – Feehan Stakes (G2, 1600m, WFA)

 

Being the golden ticket race into the Cox Plate has me with Harbour Views (8), had a run here and won no secret his grand final plans are to back here on grand final day!  Surprise Baby (4) opened his Melbourne cup campaign in this event last year and ran well although beaten home by Mahamadeis (5).  Coming Around (9)  is always around the money.  Leaving out the iron horse Sircconi (6) who has got to be getting tired as it would appear that Humidor (1) is also.  Not forgetting his best beats these running Winx to a length in a Cox Plate.

 

Selections 8-4-5-9

 

We close out with a valley and second up specialist in Dabiyr (R9, #3), will also be watching Navaisha (R9, #10)

 

Quaddie Time

 

Leg 1 – 5, 7, 8

Leg 2 – 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 9

Leg 3 – 4, 5, 8, 9

Leg 4 – 3, 10

 

Cheers, Sal

 

 

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