Round 15 – Carlton v Geelong (by the numbers)
E quindi uscimmo a riveder le stelle (And then we emerged and saw stars again).
Carlton confirmed themselves as serious contenders with a comprehensive victory against Geelong on Friday night. Buoyed by the performance, I was drawn to Dante’s metaphorical observation at the conclusion of The Inferno. My satisfied reflection that the Blues are now seriously competitive led to a more whimsical application of the quote – an application of what Julian Ross of the Coodabeen Champions, referred to as numerology, where a contemporary player’s number was considered together with those who had previously worn the corresponding number.
Carlton supporters of my generation were spoiled by a generation of footballers of singular skill, and a steady stream of talent during the final third of the 20th century. Since then, the penance for the sins and crimes of the administration has produced two decades of under-performance with occasional flights into the heady territory of mediocrity. A number of false dawns (remember they know we’re coming marketing campaign) have taunted supporters, but now it seems we can dare hope for some reward for a commitment sustained through those wasted years.
I acknowledge that those of other faiths have their own versions of historical misery – St. Kilda forever, Essendon 2002-present, Richmond 1983-2016, Geelong 1964-2006, Melbourne 1965-2020, Footscray 1955-2015 etc. – and that my lament will confirm that those of us in the Blues army are spoilt brats.
Most of us are familiar with the expression ________ is not fit to tie up the bootlaces of Flower, Skilton, Baldock, Daicos (snr.), Ablett (snr.), Matthews, Robran, Blight etc. typically in pub discussions about the relative merits of a contemporary player. This applies with equivalent force in a comparison between current players’ numbers with a previous-era champion who wore the same identifier.
At present though, even the less illustrious contemporary Navy Blue stars seem closer to proving worthy to stand comparison with their predecessors in the Princes Park firmament, after years in which suggesting such equivalence was preposterous.
Lachlan Cowan (#2) cannot be considered in the same company as John Nicholls or Greg Williams. Ollie Hollands (#4) is, at this early stage of his career a long distance from standing comparison with Sticks Kernahan and unlikely to ever reach the former skipper’s heights, and brother Elijah (#20) is well short of equivalence with Geoff Southby or Fraser Brown. Wayne Johnston and Brett Ratten would seem to have brave workhorse Matt Kennedy (#7) well covered. Similarly, Mitch McGovern (#11) Brodie Kemp (#17), Jordan Boyd (#37) and Matt Owies (#44) cannot be spoken of in the same breath as the immortal Doully, Tiger Crosswell (or Mark Naley), Wayne Harmes and Justin Madden respectively. It’s early days for mature age rookie Alex Cincotta(#39), but having been reinvented as an effective run with player he is becoming an important cog in the Carlton match plan. Ang Christou may yet come to regard him as a worthy successor in that number.
From the injured list, Adam Cerra (#5) and Jack Martin (#21) are unlikely to achieve as much in a Navy Blue jumper as Chris Judd (or Andrew McKay) or the indefatigable Craig Bradley. What is significant is that these lesser stars are becoming useful role players. A well-regarded truism is that in finals, the relative qualities of the least celebrated six players selected can be decisive.
There are players in the contemporary team for whom a case can be made that they will not be embarrassed by comparisons with their numerical predecessors. At least prospectively Harry McKay (#10) may come to be regarded as equivalently valuable to John James (a Brownlow notwithstanding); Jacob Weitering (#23) needs a premiership medal to top Paul Meldrum. The unequivocal example of a contemporary star is Patrick Cripps (#9) whose value in carrying a weaker Carlton team through almost 200 games makes him a worthy successor to another Western Australian champion, Ken Hunter (my personal favourite).
Not much needs to be said about Friday night’s match which turned out to be a regulation victory. Carlton assumed control early, and were only briefly challenged on a couple of occasions thereafter, and led from barrier to box, for the most part by a comfortable margin. The final quarter provided icing on the cake with a goal feast (9 v 3), when improbable contributors to the goals tally like Lachlan Cowan and Nic Newman joined the festivities.
It’s imperative that the lid remains sealed. September is still months away. Collingwood (3rd August) looms as a particular challenge, if only to reverse an earlier-season defeat. Sydney continues to present as the ultimate test, one which almost certainly be surmounted to reach the summit, particularly after the dismissive manner in which they embarrassed the Blues a few weeks ago. However, there is comfort in knowing that Carlton can now perform at a competitive level, and for the most part manages this consistently week-to-week as well as within matches. It seems realistic to anticipate that this and the next few seasons offer some promise, but certainly no guarantees.
CARLTON 5.3 11.5 12.11 21.12 (138)
GEELONG 2.2 5.5 8.8 11.9 (75)
GOALS
Carlton: Curnow 5, Owies 3, McKay 3, Cincotta 2, Walsh, Newman, Kennedy, O.Hollands, E.Hollands, De Koning, Cowan, Acres
Geelong: Cameron 3, Tuohy, Stengle, Rohan, Miers, Holmes, Dempsey, De Koning, Close
BEST
Carlton: De Koning, Cripps, Walsh, Curnow, Cincotta, Kennedy
Geelong: Holmes, Cameron, Duncan, Dempsey
INJURIES
Carlton: Nil
Geelong: Hawkins (foot)
SUBSTITUTES
Carlton: Corey Durdin (replaced Orazio Fantasia in the final quarter)
Geelong: Gary Rohan (replaced Oisin Mullin in the third quarter)
Crowd: 75,218 at the MCG
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They look nearly the goods Peter. Nearly. A small, thin, wafer thick sliver of class in defence is needed.
Of course I could be wrong.
The drought might break.
Thanks Dips for your perceptive comment. At the pointy end of the season rivals will be assiduous in making any shortcomings evident, and the aspect on which you focus might well be a critical weakness. At present individual and collective confidence is high. It’s questionable of course if that can be sustained – or more crucially produced on the big stage.
Hi P Fuller – I enjoyed your considering the players current and past in relation to their jumper numbers
Numbers seem to proliferate in commentary these days (was it ever thus?).
One number I learned today has relevance to your story:
Should he survive uninjured until then, the Collingwood v Carlton game to which you refer above, will be Scott Pendlebury’s 400th AFL game. I imagine there could be quite a crowd.
Excellent analysis Peter
Thanks ER and Barry for commenting. I’m grateful for comments, as I often consider myself a thread-killer – or even that I cause thread stillbirths – in that my interests are somewhat idiosyncratic.
David, I remember a mention some time ago about the proximity of Pendlebury’s 400th, but I didn’t realise that it is likely to be in the Collingwood-Carlton match. If so, that should be an occasion meriting such a milestone. He’s a grand player whom I admire.
Barry, I appreciate your generous observation. Your history and knowledge means that I genuinely value your judgement.