Round 13 – Sal’s Preview: A cracking set of games for the King’s Birthday weekend

 

 

Greetings All

 

The AFL hold over the Tasmania Football Club is a case of having your cake and eating it too. With the various threats and conditions being placed on the Island State to comply with the AFL requirements and placing inordinate pressure on the government they are still happy to click the ticket.  Venturing to the G last week to see several TFC jumpers resplendent with the AFL logo.  Let’s hope the politics can sort itself out, the AFL release the pressure and Taswegians can get a team in the competition they deserve to be in.

 

In the meantime, we have a cracking set of games for the King’s Birthday weekend

 

 

Way out West (87%) v Sicilian Storm (13%)

 

The “Storm in a Tea Cup” turns out to be a bit more than that for the Hawks with James Sicily succumbing to injury and taking a couple of games off.  Also seems The Wizard has lost some magic and finds himself back at Box Hill.  They need to find a bit of that magic to halt the run of losses.  Is it really that bad?  While they have lost some of their flair and dare the losses were all to highly rated teams.  It will be another test against the Dogs, whose recent form Is not dissimilar losing two of their last three and those losses to highly rated opposition.  They get Treloar back to strengthen one of the most powerful midfields in the competition.  Rhylee probably gets in most team’s midfields, at the Dogs he is stuck in the small forward role – a role he plays very well regularly slipping under the opposition guard.  The noise around the Hawks could see them bounce this week, but the Dogs in the loungeroom are a very slick unit and suspect will be too good for them.

 

Duck Shooters (69%) v Holding the Fort (31%)

 

The Crows thoroughly exposed the Swans last week, while this was extreme it is what they have done to lower ranked opposition all season.  The issue is losing to the teams they want to compete with in the finals.  They host one of them this week in the reigning premiers Brisbane.  The Lions should get Oscar back after Darcy Fort has shouldered the ruck load over the couple of matches, while Adelaide will probably bring back Rory Laird.  The Lion’s form has looked patchy but they still sit a game and a half clear in second place.  This is the Crows chance to get a big scalp playing in front of their baying fans.  Just think they might in what is a great prime time fixture with two of the best teams to watch going at it.

 

Almost Jack (22%) v Odette? (78%)

 

The Tiger Cubs almost knocked off the Giants last week, mind you a pawer of work was done by some of the senior players.  While there are plenty of youth at Richmond, there is still a very good core of senior players.  They get their chance at win number four against the dying Swans.   Last week’s performance was so out of character, suspect there will be plenty of discussion around the Bloods culture this week.  While they desperately need an infusion, it will only be a drip feed this week with Mills returning from suspension.  Reckon the Swans will show signs of life this week.

 

In Danger (85%) v Eclipsed (15%)

 

The Suns were shaded out last week by a resurgent Fremantle, they face one the toughest assignments this week.  Heading to Cattery with Patrick Dangerfield set to return to the Geelong line up.  It is well documented that the Suns have never won at the venue and 3 of the 8 losses were by over 100 points, they have not played there for four years.  They have a team capable of performing and winning, I just don’t think they will – this time.

 

Warded Off (89%) v Miles Away (11%)

 

He might have torn the Blues a new one the week before, but it was devastating to see Callan Ward injured and likely to have played his final game.  What a player he has been, undoubtedly a great and much-loved teammate as displayed by the affection Lachie Whitfield displayed.  His inspiration helping the Giants claw back the Tigers lead last week to win.  They host Port in Canberra this week in what might be a chilly affair in more ways than just the temperature.  While Port have been struggling Miles Bergman has put his class on display becoming a key piece of the midfield.  The GWS record in the capital has improved recently and expect them to get another notch this week.

 

Hands Off (69%) v Mini Win (31%)

 

While there were concerns about the integrity of the competition for Gather Round, the benefits outweigh those concerns.  They don’t here with this abomination of North selling two home game to WA, this one against the Eagles at Hands Oval in Bunbury.   Great to take footy to the regions but effectively donating a home game to the opposition.  That opposition was pretty good against Geelong last week and while did not get that win, think they might here.

 

Jack in the Pack (80%) v Caddyshack (20%)

 

The Blues defence has been shaky since half time against Sydney when Jack Silvagni left the field.  He should return for the Blues providing a much more solid foundation, they will need him too against the Bombers and Nate Caddy.  He provides plenty of excitement but as important a great contest up forward.  Will be a big part of the puzzle as Essendon grow.  At the other end the Blues forwards need to provide that contest, while the delivery might poor and predictable the key forwards must compete better than against the Giants and the small forwards around them place some semblance of pressure when the ball hits the ground.  This is a should win game for the Blues and expect them to – but there has been plenty of other “should win” games for them this year.

 

Sprung (%) v Fly Trap (%)

 

While I lament North selling their game to WA, the Demons Alice Springs adventures are more so.  North was not in the finals discussion, giving games away doesn’t hurt them.   A club pushing to be competitive in finals giving away home ground advantage is ludicrous – they have now lost their last three in the red centre.  Last week losing all the momentum they had built over recent weeks.  Can they get that momentum back against the number one seed?  The Pies are defending as well as any team in recent years snaring the opposition in their trap and scoring heavily off the resultant rebound into an open forward line.  The Pies don’t need big forwards, they get the ball in quickly to smaller, quick and skilful players such as Elliot and Hill.  Melbourne has the midfield to match the Pies and if they use the ball well could really challenge.  Not sure they have the forwards to break the trap or defenders to keep up so expect another Collingwood chant to ring out early in the fourth quarter.

 

Go Blues,

 

Cheers, Sal

 

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