Round 12 – Sal’s Preview: Kicking the Can, and Caulfield tips

Greetings All,

 

In addition to the challenges with tripping was equally bemused with only monetary sanction for kicking dished out to Brisbane’s Matt Eagles.  In the past kicking was seen as a heinous crime in footy circles, not sure it should have changed that much.

 

Massive effort from the Swans last night, well coached, well executed and an exciting future.  So many things wrong with the Giants!

 

Ben Ten ($6.40) vs Cameronesque ($1.16)

 

Sitting second last is tough enough even tougher with an injury list that doesn’t fit on the screen!  They have also ruled out the Ben that wears number 10, Cunnington the absolute barometer for them.  They get to host the Lions who put the Bulldogs away but not the same aplomb of some of their other victories.  They have dodged a bullet with both Charlie Cameron and Cameron Rayner’s injuries not as severe as they first seemed.  Roos not going well enough to surprise here.

 

Gawn Gorn ($2.20) vs Well Dunn ($1.81)

 

The Dees front up again without the services of Big Max joined on the sidelines by his heir apparent Luke Jackson.  Braydon Preuss likely to take on Grundy.  The Pies ground over Adelaide – a meritorious performance with the risks they took in resting a few.  It could pay dividends down the track.  Great effort Linden Dunn to return from two knee reconstructions and get one on the board.  The Demon’s scalps for the season are the who’s not who of the competition and while they look good beating poor opposition they need to bag an elephant, none better than the Pies this week.  An extra two days off gives them every chance, just think Collingwood have managed their list well and get a couple of rippers back.  Not without hope the Dees, but the Pies for me.

 

Caleb Serong, Serong ($2.00) vs Weitering Themselves ($1.97)

 

Whatever will be will be but I think we know that Caleb Serong will be a ripper for the Dockers.  He gets Sonny Walters back to assist in the middle as they take on the Blues who are looking at horror road trip if they lose this one.  They are buoyed by the recommitment of Jacob Weitering to the club, just the person to build a defense around and they need to do it quickly to stop the procession of goals they are conceding.  The coach has finals on his mind – I would have just one game at a time.  Brendon Bolton had plenty of honourable losses!  McKay back helps but with Walters back giving Fyfe more time up forward reckon Freo have too many advantages.

 

Drinks Time ($1.13) vs Doedee Dah Dah ($6.80)

 

Some relief for Luke Beverage after a challenging footy frenzy thus far facing Richmond, Port and Brisbane – this week they have the Crows who showed a bit against the Pies but still could not put enough together to win.  The extra three days off won’t hurt the Doggies either while the loss of Doedee for the season doesn’t help the Crows.  Bulldogs to win here.

 

The Corporation ($1.17) vs Clarko’s Way ($5.20)

 

The big boys of the west have flexed their muscles and got their season on track with the aid of a very handy fixture, they get to host Hawks this week with a couple of other also rans coming up.  But like the Tigers last year – they didn’t make the fixture.  They were just too good for the Blues once their game got rolling.  I expect Clarkson will have a strategy to nullify them but it is all or nothing for the Hawks with most of their games being one-sided affairs.  Reckon this will be another but not Clarko’s way.

 

Powered Off ($1.27) vs That was Rankine ($3.80)

 

The Tiger train came to a halt up against Port, though they will feel relatively comfortable once they get a few of their topliners back.  They take on the Suns who have exposed a couple of rippers this year with Izak Rankine right up there, no shortage of confidence but reckon he needs to tidy up some of the finishing.  Great test for Gold Coast who are trying hard but yet to register a win since round 7.  Suspect the trend will continue.

 

A Bit Jaded () vs A Hero Again ()

 

The Saints lose Gresham for a while after the beating from the Cats, they need to put their best foot forward against the Bombers who just found a way against the immature Suns to share the spoils.  Zaharakis displaying his skills and nerve under pressure to nail two late goals.  Getting Ryder and Jones back will be critical for the Saints along with the extra day.  Reckon they will get back on the winners list.

 

 

3 Nights Off!

 

Track Time

 

Back at Caulfield with the prospect of wet weather and the rail out 9 metres.  Have to see the pattern emerge but rail out on a deteriorating track will probably favour those in the front half of the field.  A good program with three group races, suspect we will get a few withdrawals.  Plenty of quality flesh returning and a meeting where you have to choose between the race fit winter types or those fresh on the scene getting ready to attack the riches of the Spring.

 

Mrs O’Malley (R1, #6) hasn’t won for a while but with the claim for Lewis German reckon represents better value than the favourite.  Can’t say there is a lot of confidence.  The apprentice claim attracts me to The Closer (R2, #6), some question first up in an open affair.  The next is also wide open and the biggest test for Bless Her (R3, #6) but she has four on the trot and looks well weighted.  He is short enough but Plein Ciel (R4, #2) has fitness and form on his side.

 

Race 5 – Vain Stakes (G3, 1100m, 3yo C&G SWP)

 

A tough affair with all the 3yo either first up or having their second career start.  Going with the maiden Ranting (5) who has run in good races and gets the services of Caulfield wiz D Dunn.  Rulership (3) also has run in good quality, might be a fraction short for Larimer Street (2) but will be one to watch and Hydro Star (6) was an impressive winner at his only start.  Could easily have missed the winner but an important race to watch for the future.

 

Selections – 5-3-2-6

 

Race 6 – Quezette Stakes (G3, 1100m, Fillies SWP)

 

Parlophone (3) was super impressive in Adelaide and looks well placed here.  She is pretty short so reckon there might be better value.  Fresh (7) was well supported in the better races in the Autumn so might be pretty good. Euphoric Summer (6)  has a similar profile but has a bit to turn around on the favourite and putting Agreeable (12) returns after winning on debut in May.  Really good race and another important to watch for the riches of the carnival.

 

Selections – 7-3-6-12

 

Bumper Blast (R7, #8) is a beauty at Flemington, untried at Caulfield but just might be very good.  Safer bet if the rain comes and on pace bias then hard to go past Jungle Edge (R7, #1).

 

Race 8 – P.B Lawrence Stakes (G2, 1400m, WFA)

 

Going with fitness and value in the feature with Morrissy (7), C Williams has built a pretty good affinity with this horse and handy at The Heath.  We get the return of Mystic Journey (8) and Arcadia Queen (9), rating the former higher with a better wet track form.  Then giving the Wizard from the West some hope on Regal Power (1).  Ripping race!

 

Selections – 7-8-9-1

 

Pike gets a much better chance in this one on Showmanship (R9, #4).  A bit worried being from WA but does have a win on a heavy surface so happy to come home on him.

 

Quaddie Time

 

Leg 1 – 2, 3, 6, 7, 12, 13

Leg 2 – 1, 2, 6, 8

Leg 3 – 1, 2, 7, 8, 9

Leg 4 – 4

 

Go Blues,

 

Cheers, Sal

 

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