Round 12 Preview – Vale Neale Daniher

Greetings All

The Bombers thirteen game winning streak was about to come to an end as they took on the Blues at a packed Princes Park. Carlton kicked away in the final quarter to establish a comfortable lead heading to time on. The rapture of the Blues was too much for the sound operators who inadvertently kicked off “We are the Navy Blues”. Time wasting was not a rule often officiated but Ian Robinson saw fit to penalise Mike Fitzpatrick as the Essendon hordes left the stadium. As we have learnt over the last 13 years there is no situation that Neale Daniher considered lost, he took over that game and got his Bombers over the line by one point with the hordes streaming back in.

Sadly for the game and Essendon he suffered a knee injury the following week in his 66th game. He never fully recovered but never gave up sticking it out 1990 but only adding another 16 games to the tally. The final one famously also featured three of his brothers.

His aptitude and knowledge of the game was not lost as he embarked on a coaching career that saw him lead the Demons through nearly 10 seasons. That included a grand final appearance against the all-conquering Essendon in 2000 and remained a revered figure at the club. His influence on the club remained strong with his famous quote “when all is said and done, more is said than done” helping drive them to the 2021 premiership.

That quote and more of them highlighted his determination, resilience and positivity in the light of suffering from a most hideous disease enlightened us all on how to approach life and curveballs that come our way. He transcended footy to become a revered figure and inspiration to us all. Leading a movement that has raised over $100M to fight MND or as he dubbed it “The Beast”. Outlasting that beast for 10 years more than the average life expectancy is a testament to that determination, resilience and positivity.

What an incredible legacy he leaves.

Rest in Peace.

Viking Time (12%) vs The Light of Day (88%)

Alix Tauru comes back for the Saints while the Hawks welcome back Will Day and Jack Gunston. This is a great matchup, the Hawks sit fourth after getting back on the winner’s list against Adelaide, the Saints are simply playing to the form. Beating the teams they should but not getting it done against the higher ranked teams. They need to get a big scalp and this might be their chance. They will need to keep the Hawthorn forwards quiet and gain midfield ascendancy, suspect the inclusion of Day swings it the other way. The Loungeroom should help the Saints, however the Hawks are more than comfortable in the venue winning their last seven. St Kilda has the capability to get this done, however the Hawks are the more trustworthy side and get the nod here.

Just Joshin’ (8%) vs Break the Lawson (92%)

Can the Blues put three together? On form there is little chance given the Cats have put two of the favoured teams in the competition to the sword in the last fortnight. However they will be buoyed by their recent record against Geelong. The Cats have taken away opposition strengths in recent games, the Blues have plenty they need to take away. None more so than the interception and drive from Lawson Humphries. They also need to cover the loss of Matt Carroll to an ACL rupture, he has been one of the few Blue shining lights this season. Carlton’s recent wins have been meritorious, this one would be miraculous.

Shot Ducks (99.8%) vs Oh Max! (0.2%)

There was something about 99 and the Tigers are pretty happy with their Pick 99. Patrick Retschko put on a superb display of skill last week as they beat the Bombers but lost the number one pick as a result. It will be a tougher task in Sydney who come off a tough loss to the Cats with plenty to work on and needing to cover the loss of Papley and Rosas from the forward line. Expect the Swans to bounce back strongly.

The Defence Rests (60%) vs The Top Seeds (40%)

The Lions have held their game together this year in spite of a number of key players missing, it has all been blown apart in the last two weeks. The Giants had plenty of their own injury issues but delivered a serious message to both the Lions and the competition in a mighty third quarter. Brisbane head home to take on the form team of the competition in Fremantle. Pearce and Young could return while the Lions may get a couple back in Berry and Answerth. The Gabba is a happy hunting ground for the Dockers losing their last four, noting though that the last encounter was in 2023. Are Fremantle really going that well? Aside from the Essendon game the encounters have been tight before they put a space in the game in a matter of minutes. If Brisbane can keep them in check for longer than their recent lesser credentialled opposition they can get the title defence back on track.

Nearly in the Freijah (69%) vs Moore or Less (31%)

Joel Freijah was the villain letting Langdon free to put the Dees in front, but turned hero being the right place and right time to regain the lead for Dogs to gain a much needed victory. Their injury woes did not get any worse, however their opponents took a big hit. Jamie Elliott’s injury put a dampener on the Pendlebury celebrations and Darcy Moore set for another extended stint on the sidelines. The challenge for the Pies will be how to hit the scoreboard, the Jamie Elliott hole up forward is massive. The Dogs defence was strengthened with the return of O’Donnell and should be able to restrict the Collingwood forwards. For the Pies to succeed they will need to find other ways to score, it might mean Nick spending more time forward. This might come at a cost in the middle. Just think the Dogs will be able to restrict them.

Dog Bitten (60%) vs Not Easy being Greene (40%)

The Demons hit a road block last week against the Dogs and head to the Red Centre to host the Giants. GWS were superb last week and led superbly by Toby Greene. Plenty of chat about his future, but no doubt about his commitment to the cause playing the last few matches with a broken foot. As good as they were they still have a depleted list with some chance Sam Taylor may return this week, suspect he might get some VFL time first. The Dees have lost Lever but expect them to be able to cover that loss with Petty or McDonald. Most of all expect Max Gawn to be smarting from last week and put in a dominant performance and get back on track.

The Other Bailey (68%) vs Have you Hird? (32%)

Spent an inordinate amount of time on 17 v 18 last week, 16 v 18 gets the same treatment after moves of the Bombers this week. Brad Scott became the second domino to fall, that became secondary with James Hird all but declaring he wants the job with plenty of the faithful behind him. They might as well put him in now and be done with the charade. Any other appointment will always have the spectre of Hird lurking in the background. They head to Perth and take on an Eagles outfit that have found form on the back of a very good couple of weeks from Bailey Williams who has taken over key ruck duties. Doubt the Bombers will get the “sugar hit”, they were smashed by injury last week, expect them to be feisty but expect West Coast to get another victory.

Track Time

Back to Caulfield this week and will need to be on track-watch with rain in Melbourne we will be on a rain affected surface and can expect them to be looking for better ground out wide once we get to the quaddie legs. Not much better in Brisbane where we shift to Eagle Farm, weather is expected to be OK on the day but has already been hit hard this week. Will be on a soft track at best for the two group one races this week.

Caulfield

The Quaddie opens with a shorty in Simurgh (R6, #11) it looks like a handy type and well weighted, but not sure about taking odds-on. Skippers Canyon (R6, #9) looks as good a chance after just getting pipped last start. The best of Rosberg (R7, #3) can win, form needs to improve but has been freshened up for this. Bustling (R8, #12) gets significant weight relief from last start and looks well placed here. They will be heading toward the outside fence at the end of the day which makes So You Pence (R9, #14) well placed to close out the day.

Quaddie

Leg 1 – 1, 5, 8, 9, 11

Leg 2 – 3, 4, 6, 8, 9

Leg 3 – 2, 12, 13

Leg 4 – 3, 5, 8, 14

300 Combinations (if they all run), a $30 investment will return 10% of the dividend

Eagle Farm

Race 7 – Queensland Derby (G1, 2400m, 3YO SW)

A wide open affair here and going to go with Accidental Bid (12) again. Trusting Maher to get him right for the target race. Solid Gold (18) rattled home well last start and should be suited by the surface. JMac on Providence (4) will get a good run as will Different Gravy (3) with Zahra on board and 2 from 3 in the wet.

Selections – 12 – 18 – 4 – 3

Race 8 – Kingsford Smith Cup (G1, 1300m, WFA)

When do we give up on Jimmysstar (1)? Plenty of reasons to here, but see the outside barrier draw as beneficial as is the extra 100m. No reason Rothfire (2) can’t repeat his last race performance and gets the conditions to suit. Would have put Private Eye (3) at the top but suspect the inside draw won’t help and giving Sepals (6) some chance effective in the wet and handy first up.

Selections – 1 – 2 – 3 – 6

Go Blues,

Cheers, Sal